The EU toughens its stance against Iran as pressure mounts from the United States and Gulf countries

1. Pressure from the United States and a possible shift by the EU
2. EU debate on sanctions and list of terrorist organisations
3. Initial reactions from Spain and France
4. Diplomatic impact and continuity of dialogue
5. Repression figures and reasons for Europe's hardening stance
6. Position of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia

Pressure from the United States and a possible shift by the EU

The confrontation between Iran and the West is entering a phase of greater political and diplomatic friction. The United States is maintaining a strategy of sustained pressure on Tehran, while the European Union is approaching a decision that would mark a turning point in its relationship with the Iranian regime: the possible inclusion of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on its list of terrorist organisations. 

For Washington, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has always been the source of chaos in the Middle East. What is more, the White House has considered the IRGC not only as a military force, but also as a key tool for the functioning of the Ayatollahs' regime and as an organisation with great influence in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. 

In contrast, for Europe, which tends to take a more moderate stance on these issues, the scenario has changed. The protests in Iran, which have been going on for more than a month, coupled with the regime's heavy-handed repression, have led to the designation of the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation being brought forward. 

Kaja Kallas, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, announced that the EU will impose further sanctions on the Iranian regime and said that a vote will be held on adding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to the list of terrorist organisations. However, this will require the votes of all 27 countries that make up the Union. 

Initial reactions from Spain and France

Spain and France were the first countries to respond to this news. Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares made it clear that 'Spain is ready to support any sanctions that the European Union decides to impose on the Iranian regime. Freedom of expression and the right of people to demonstrate peacefully must be respected. Arbitrary arrests and executions would be a red line, both for Spain and for Europe. This is something we must be very clear about.' 

With the same forcefulness, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot made it clear from Paris that France would support sanctions against those behind the repression. This includes members of the Iranian government, prosecutors, police chiefs and senior officers of the Revolutionary Guard who have been involved in controlling and blocking the internet. ‘We must be more ambitious and tougher with these measures,’ he said, openly supporting the inclusion of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on the EU's terrorist list. 

Diplomatic impact and continuity of dialogue

In this context, Kallas has tried to soften the diplomatic impact of this decision a little. As he explained, designating the IRGC as a terrorist group would not automatically break off the EU's contacts in the dialogue with Tehran.  

If the European Union ultimately designates the IRGC as a terrorist organisation, it would be more in line with the US position and would send a strong political message to the Iranian regime. 

Repression figures and reasons for Europe's hardening stance

The intensification of measures taken by the Iranian regime is the main reason why the EU will take this decision. The data is indisputable. 

According to HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency), at least 6,221 people have lost their lives during these protests. Most were protesters, yes, but among them were also minors and civilians. Likewise, other independent groups warn that the true figure could be much higher, as many deaths are still under investigation. Up to 17,000 deaths could be involved in this process. 

In addition to these figures, more than 42,000 people have been arrested and at least 11,000 seriously injured, many of them without adequate access to medical care. This scenario has reinforced the perception in Brussels that selective sanctions are no longer sufficient to respond to the gravity of the situation. 

Position of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was the first to make an official statement through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA), and Saudi Arabia followed suit shortly afterwards, with an explicit guarantee from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Iranian President Masoud Pezehskian. 

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) reiterated that it will not allow anyone to use its airspace, territory or waters for any military attack against Iran, nor will it provide logistical support for this. 

In a statement, the MoFA noted that, in order to resolve crises, the most important thing is not to lose the channels of dialogue, to lower tensions and to adhere to international law. This statement is in line with the UAE's policy of preferring to resolve conflicts diplomatically. 

All this comes in a context in which Saudi Arabia has also confirmed, following the example of the Emirates, that it will not allow its airspace or territory to be used to attack Iran. This was guaranteed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Iranian President Masoud Pezehskian in a telephone call, following the recent announcement of the deployment of the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the region.