The Polisario Front admits for the first time that Morocco's Autonomy Plan is the most viable option

Ibrahim Bachir Bella, a senior Polisario Front official, has stated for the first time that Morocco's proposal for an Autonomy Plan for Western Sahara, announced by King Mohammed VI of Morocco in 2007, should be considered ‘the most viable option for resolving the conflict in Western Sahara’. 

This shift in the position of the organisation controlled by the Algerian government, which seeks the creation of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), has caused astonishment, as experts do not know whether this is the beginning of a negotiated solution or a manoeuvre by Algeria to improve relations with the US administration led by Donald Trump. 

For Washington, the Autonomy Plan is considered ‘the most viable, credible and realistic solution to the conflict’. However, this decision, whether real or not, is not in the hands of the Polisario, but is part of an Algerian strategy not to appear as an obstacle to the United States. 

This is reflected in the opinions expressed by officials close to Trump, such as his adviser Massad Boulos, who affirmed the full recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. These words have placed Algeria and the Polisario in a difficult position: to negotiate or face measures that could deal a severe diplomatic blow, such as the possible designation of the Polisario as a terrorist organisation. 

The credibility of the Polisario Front is increasingly damaged. The strong instability and direct influence of the Algerian government on the decisions taken by the organisation mean that the Front's room for manoeuvre is very limited. It is in this context that international pressure, especially from Washington, has increased considerably in favour of Rabat's proposal for autonomy, which could explain this gesture.

‘It is premature to talk about progress in the Polisario's position because the decision is not in their hands,’ Mohamed Issam Laroussi, director general of the Centre for Geopolitical Studies in Rabat. 

On the other hand, for Taleb Bouya Abahazem, vice-president of the International Union for the Support of Autonomy, the fact that the decision comes from diplomats in the Interior Ministry, and not from the Foreign Affairs Ministry, is a clear indication that Bella's intention is to calm the tensions surrounding the Tindouf camps. 

However, other analysts, such as Mohamed El Tayar, director of the Moroccan Observatory for Strategic Studies, point out that Beila's statements could be more of a tactic to gain time than a sincere change of position. He also stressed that the Sahrawis' reality regarding 'self-determination' does not imply 'separation', but is increasingly in line with Morocco's Autonomy Plan. 

To reinforce this position, Nasser Bourita, Morocco's Minister of Foreign Affairs, has stepped up diplomatic action with visits to Madrid and Paris, the North African country's main partners alongside the United States, and to various capitals in Eastern Europe, such as Budapest, Tallinn and Ljubljana. 

Meanwhile, Morocco is receiving increasing international support. Since the United States recognised Morocco's plan in 2020, more than 100 countries have expressed their support for the Autonomy Plan and dozens of them have opened consulates in the cities of Dakhla and Laayoune. 

Finally, the United Nations has also noted renewed international interest in resolving the conflict. For Staffan de Mistura, the UN envoy, the diplomatic involvement of major powers is the ideal way to achieve a just and lasting solution that involves all parties and ensures that they are willing to compromise.