The PP wins the elections in Spain, but it will be very difficult for them to govern in the face of PSOE resistance
The Popular Party won the general elections to the Spanish Congress and Senate called in advance by the President of the Government Pedro Sánchez after the last municipal and regional elections that left an overwhelming triumph of the Popular Party in most territories, but the electoral victory has been bittersweet because the party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo has very difficult to govern since, given the forecasts of having more than 160 seats, it finally remained at 136, although with a large increase compared to the last general elections in which it only obtained 89 deputies.
The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, resisted the popular electoral onslaught and saved the election night with 122 seats and was even slightly ahead and with a technical tie throughout the count, although the PP finally gained seats as the count progressed thanks to the evolution of the election night in certain constituencies such as the Community of Madrid or Castilla y León. The PSOE obtained great results in other autonomous communities such as, above all, Catalonia, where Salvador Illa's PSC obtained a magnificent result, and even Andalusia, where the Socialists were practically at the same level as the Popular Party, when in past elections the latter obtained great results in the Andalusian autonomous community.
It was expected, according to several previous polls, an absolute majority with the PP leading and the support of VOX for the investiture of Núñez Feijóo, and the most optimistic polls for the Popular Party even gave a possible absolute majority for the PP alone, but there was a final mobilisation of the more left-wing vote and the Popular victory was barely 14 seats short.
The situation for Núñez Feijóo is complicated. He should be able to count on the 33 seats of VOX, but the presence of the party that is branded from many sectors as far-right avoids any circumstantial support from nationalist or pro-independence parties that have vetoed the formation led by Santiago Abascal; thus, the PP has no chance of reaching the required support to reach the 176 seats needed for an absolute majority.
Meanwhile, on the other hand, the door is open for Pedro Sánchez's PSOE to re-establish a government since, with the support of SUMAR and if it can once again count on the support of the nationalist and pro-independence parties, it could surpass the 176 seats, although this would require the approval in the form of abstention in a hypothetical second round of investiture of Junts per Catalunya, the party that demands a referendum on independence and amnesty for the detainees of its formation, which was marked by figures who were accused in their day of sedition and disobedience, such as the fugitive leader Carles Puigdemont. A political situation that is difficult for the socialists to salvage given the current political scenario.
The PP and VOX now have 169 seats and, with an effort in dialogue and negotiations, they could add Unión del Pueblo Navarro to the equation with its seat and Coalición Canaria with its other seat, although the Canary Islands party also indicated at the time that it would not support a government that included VOX.
The leader of the Partido Popular Núñez Feijóo appeared publicly to announce his victory in terms of the number of seats and votes and asked all rival parties not to block his government as the party with the most votes, in order to try first to get the investiture, but his chances of getting it through are practically nil. In the first vote, he would not achieve an absolute majority, and in the second, all the forces that have so far supported Pedro Sánchez would be able to impose their noes on the yeses that would foreseeably back the popular leader.
For his part, Pedro Sánchez can count on the nationalist and pro-independence parties that would demand various issues in exchange, but he needs the underground support of Junts Per Catalunya, which has already announced that it would not back either the PSOE or the PP, although the bill to be passed on to Pedro Sánchez for his abstention in a second round of investiture could mean some access to an independence referendum that borders on unconstitutionality.
Thus, the future political panorama is envisaged with two possible options: institutional deadlock when it comes to forming a new government and going to new elections, or a socialist government more dependent on the nationalists and pro-independence supporters, with the difficult shadow of Junts per Catalunya and the independence referendum hovering overhead.