The United States and Iran reopen the dialogue in Oman on the nuclear programme
In an unexpected move that could significantly alter the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are preparing to hold talks on the nuclear programme this Saturday. This diplomatic effort, fraught with tensions and challenges, could open a new path towards détente or, on the contrary, provoke a dangerous escalation if it does not succeed.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed the start of ‘indirect’ talks with Washington, to be held in Oman. In a message posted on social media, Araqchi said it was ‘an opportunity and a test’. The initiative has one key element: the approval of the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who in February described any negotiations with the United States as ‘neither intelligent, honourable or wise’.
On the other hand, US President Donald Trump surprised everyone by announcing that Saturday's meeting will be ‘almost at the highest level’ and ‘direct’, leaving intermediaries aside. During his White House meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump emphasised the importance of this dialogue and expressed his hope of reaching an agreement. However, he also issued a serious warning, saying that if the talks with Iran are not successful, the Iranian regime ‘will be in great danger’. ‘They cannot have a nuclear weapon,’ he reiterated.
This sudden change of course in US policy comes just one day after Tehran categorically rejected any direct contact, accusing the Trump administration of acting in a contradictory and constantly threatening manner. In 2018, during his first term in office, Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear agreement, plunging both nations into a prolonged diplomatic crisis.
Since that break, Iran has significantly increased its levels of uranium enrichment, exceeding the limits established by the original agreement. While Western powers accuse Tehran of seeking weapons capabilities, the Iranian regime maintains that its nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful.
At the same time, fears of a military response are growing. Intelligence reports have suggested that Israel, with Washington's backing, could be contemplating military action against Iranian nuclear facilities if the negotiations fail. According to sources close to Netanyahu's recent visit to Washington, one of the objectives was precisely to coordinate possible war scenarios in the event of a stalemate in the dialogue.
Trump, for his part, has maintained a dual stance: in January he resumed his policy of ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran by reintroducing sanctions, but he also showed himself willing to engage in dialogue. Likewise, at the beginning of March, he revealed that he had sent a letter to the Iranian supreme leader offering negotiations, while threatening military action if an agreement was not reached.
A decisive moment is approaching for the future of the Iranian nuclear programme and for the stability of the entire Middle East region. The talks will take place in a particularly tense context, marked by the current US military offensive against the Houthis in Yemen, a militia backed by Tehran. Despite its stated objective of neutralising threats from the Houthis, this operation is also interpreted as a direct deterrent message to Iran.