The United States proposes creating a regional nuclear alliance that includes Iran

International concerns about the progress of Iran's nuclear programme have prompted the United States to propose the creation of a nuclear energy consortium with Arab participation and under the international supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In exchange, Tehran would minimise or halt its uranium enrichment activities. 

This initiative is significant because it could be a strategy to reduce tensions in the Middle East. 

It is a strategic shift following the ongoing nuclear negotiations mediated by Oman between Iranian and US leaders and serves as a measure to balance the strategic ambitions of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Despite this, the plan faces challenges posed by strong mutual distrust that calls into question the success of the agreement. Specifically, five rounds of negotiations have been held without any real progress, although the US announcement is a reformulation of its approach to previous agreements, including technical and economic aspects that are intended to be attractive and are linked to the internal economic crisis facing the Persian Gulf country. 

Instead of following the guidelines of its previous nuclear agreement outlined in 2015, the United States has chosen to adapt to the current security instabilities and to effectively freeze the nuclear race. The 2015 agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was a significant step forward in which Iran agreed to reduce its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, but the US withdrawal in 2018 reignited the confrontation and prompted Iran to resume and refine its capabilities. 

The announcement of the plan comes after the publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency report highlighting that Iran continues to accelerate its production of highly enriched uranium, which is a sign of risk regarding the possibility of nuclear weapons production and a direct alarm for the United States and Israel. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that nuclear weapons were considered unacceptable, in order to appease the idea of a possible escalation and maintain the rhetoric of the peaceful nature of its nuclear programme in the face of Western power. 

Analysts believe that this could be a form of international and regional pressure on Iran and that a rejection of this initiative would raise further doubts about the supposed peaceful aims of its nuclear programme. The White House has emphasised the details of its proposal for the benefit of all, and the New York Times states that, although it is not a comprehensive plan, it includes a series of brief sections on this possible joint regional nuclear energy framework. 

The question remains as to what Iran's response will be and whether it is willing to accept this new agreement, given that it has the negotiating advantage. It maintains its dual narrative of defending its nuclear programme while rejecting nuclear weapons. Furthermore, it persists with the construction and expansion of its influence, enrichment level and capabilities, which almost place it on the nuclear threshold. It also has allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen that strengthen its dominance in the Middle East. 

Concerns about Iran's nuclear power date back to the 2000s and deepened internationally with the discovery of undeclared nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak. Since then, concerns among nuclear powers and the IAEA have grown, along with suspicions about the possible military rationale behind this development. 

US actions are aligned with regional dynamics and renewed talks and cooperation with Gulf countries and the attempt to seek a security balance, especially in light of the situation in the Gulf, Yemen and Syria. There have been multiple attempts to revive the 2015 agreement, but no progress has been made despite international pressure. Although the initiative remains theoretical and has not yet manifested itself as a realistic political project, it is an unprecedented, pragmatic and tactical effort at reorientation and resolution, which seeks to avoid falling into open regional confrontation, as well as acting as a clear deterrent to Tehran's relevant role in the equation.