The United States toughens its strategy to curb Iranian oil exports

1. A direct blow to the Iranian economy
2. Reactions and possible consequences
3. The global energy landscape
4. An uncertain scenario

The United States has intensified its strategy to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero by implementing stricter measures, including the inspection and possible detention of Iranian oil tankers in key shipping lanes. This policy, promoted by the Donald Trump administration in its second term, seeks to close the loopholes that have allowed Tehran to circumvent the sanctions imposed in recent years.

The White House is considering the possibility of carrying out inspections at sea under the Proliferation Security Initiative, an international agreement created in 2003 with the aim of combating the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction. The Trump administration intends to use this mechanism to get allied governments to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at strategic points such as the Strait of Malacca and other essential trade routes.


This strategy would not only delay deliveries of Iranian crude, but would also expose the companies involved in this trade to sanctions and reputational damage.

In the midst of this situation, Trump has expressed his desire to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran. To this end, he sent a letter to the Iranian leadership expressing his hope that the regime will agree to dialogue. ‘There are two ways to deal with Iran: through military force or through a deal,’ Trump said in an interview with Fox. ‘I would prefer to make a deal, because I'm not looking to harm Iran,’ he added.

A direct blow to the Iranian economy

The Trump administration has made clear its commitment to the policy of ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran, which aims to isolate the country from the global economy and curb its ability to fund military and nuclear activities. During the first weeks of its new mandate, the US government imposed two rounds of additional sanctions, focused on companies and on the so-called ‘parallel fleet’ of oil tankers that operate without Western insurance and transport crude from sanctioned countries.

The application of more severe sanctions seeks to discourage the purchase of Iranian crude by shipping, refining and oil trading companies. This would especially affect key clients such as China, which in recent years has been Iran's main commercial partner in this sector.

Reactions and possible consequences

Despite the tightening of sanctions, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain. Previous experiences have shown that Tehran and its buyers often find ways to circumvent the restrictions imposed. However, some experts believe that if the price of oil remains below $75 a barrel, Washington will have more leeway to tighten sanctions without drastically affecting global supply.

For his part, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has denounced the new sanctions and their effects on the country's oil industry. ‘Trump has once again signed orders imposing sanctions on many of our ships, creating uncertainty about how our oil and gas shipments will be delivered,’ he told the Iranian parliament.

In addition, previous US attempts to confiscate shipments of Iranian oil have generated hostile responses from Tehran, including the seizure of foreign ships. In 2023, during the Joe Biden administration, Iran intercepted at least two ships following US attempts to confiscate Iranian oil, which contributed to a rise in crude oil prices.

The global energy landscape

The tightening of sanctions on Iran could have wider repercussions on the energy market. While Washington seeks to block Iranian oil flows, it is also pressuring Iraq to resume oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, which could offset the possible drop in Iranian crude on the market.

Despite the sanctions imposed in recent years, the US Energy Information Administration estimates that Iran generated revenues of $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion in 2022 from its oil exports, thanks to its smuggling networks and agreements with Asian buyers. Russia, another sanctioned actor, has adopted similar strategies to continue exporting crude oil to key markets such as China and India.

An uncertain scenario

Although Washington has not yet confirmed whether it has contacted countries that are signatories to the Proliferation Security Initiative to coordinate these maritime inspections, the possibility of allied nations joining the US strategy is still under discussion. John Bolton, former national security adviser and architect of the initiative in 2003, has stated that the use of this mechanism to curb Iranian exports ‘would be fully justified’, as Iran's oil revenues finance military activities and support for armed groups in the region.

Meanwhile, European countries have expressed concern about the navigation of sanctioned oil tankers near their coasts, mainly due to the environmental risks associated with possible oil spills. However, so far no concrete measures have been taken to inspect ships carrying Iranian oil, unlike the restrictions imposed on Russian shipments.

With this policy moving forward, tension surrounding Iranian oil exports is expected to increase in the coming months as Washington and Tehran continue their prolonged geopolitical standoff.