Towards the fragmentation of Europe in Libya
"It seems that France has begun to align itself with Russia against Turkey and, indeed, against the United States," a Libyan political source told The Arab Weekly. This revelation would be a new game on the Libyan geopolitical chessboard, immersed in a civil war since 2011, confronting the Government of National Unity (GNA) and the National Liberation Army (LNA).
The movement is important because although it was known that both Paris and Moscow supported Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the LNA, the Kremlin had approached Ankara, an ally of the rival side, in recent weeks to seek a common position on Libya, also with Iran. In fact, after the meeting between the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the Libyan Prime Minister of the GNA, Fayez Sarraj, in which they announced last June 4 the military victory over the capital, Tripoli, it was known that previously, and in anticipation that this faction would win the battle, Russia had intensified its diplomatic agenda with meetings with representatives of the GNA.
Thus, on June 3, just one day before Erdogan and Sarraj were due to appear, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met his Libyan counterpart and the vice-president of the GNA, Mohammed Siala and Ahmed Maiteeq respectively. At the time, the head of Russian diplomacy "confirmed the willingness of Russian companies to resume their activities in Libya after the normalization of the political-military situation" and reaffirmed Moscow's support "for the initiative presented by the Chairman of the Libyan House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh [controlled by the GNA], which creates the basis for starting talks within Libya, with a view to developing commitments to overcome existing problems and forming unified government entities within the country".
However, with the information from The Arab Weekly, it seems that Russia has changed its strategy, for reasons that are still unknown. According to this publication, what would have motivated the idea of an alliance between Moscow and Paris would have been their joint vision of the oil city of Sirte, an important enclave of geostrategic interest that has become the scene of the battles between the GNA and the LNA in recent days. The town, which is currently one of the fiefdoms of the Haftar forces, is located 400 kilometres east of Tripoli on the Libyan coast. "The Russians and the French see Sirte as equally important: they both want the port and the base of Al-Qardabiya," the source explains in that publication.
"Observers established a link between the postponement of a planned official visit to Turkey by Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygou and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and a statement issued on Sunday by the French Presidency criticising Turkey's intervention in Libya. The timing of both developments may indicate that there was last-minute coordination between Moscow and Paris," analyst Mona El-Mahrouki told The Arab Weekly.
On Sunday 14 June, Turkey had convened the Russian delegation in Istanbul and also the Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammed Javad Zarif, to try to present a common vision on the Libyan conflict. However, shortly before the meeting, the Ankara government announced the postponement of the meeting to "a future date", a decision that caused surprise on the international agenda. A Turkish official revealed afterwards that the two countries did not share "the same view on some issues", which prevented "the meetings from leading to concrete results". According to El-Mahrouki, Turkey hoped that Russia would allow it to conquer Sirte, in exchange for providing Moscow with the base of Khufra, considered the most important in the country. But France, the third party in the dispute, is not prepared to tolerate that the LNA renounces to Sirte, even if it can act militarily to counter any attack against Haftar's forces. Thus, "Russia is aware that the recent French escalation, preceded by the Rafale fighter planes flying over the city, would ruin any agreement with Turkey that might take place," explains the expert.
A few hours after the announcement of the extension of the Istanbul meeting, the French Elysée published a statement in which it described the attitude of the Eurasian nation in Libya as "intolerant" and "unacceptable", and in which it reported that, in the coming days, Paris was to hold talks with the other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) with the aim - although it was not mentioned - of seeking a common condemnation of Turkish interference in the Middle East. "These interferences are becoming very problematic and, despite our efforts, the situation is stagnating. This increasingly aggressive stance is not acceptable. Turkey is supposed to be a partner in the Alliance, so this cannot continue," a French presidential official told Reuters.
While France seems to be starting to get along with Russia - which, it should be remembered, is NATO's main threat - Italy has turned towards Turkey, as both share a common position on the Libyan chessboard: their support for the GNA. Last week, it was already known that Rome and the Sarraj Government had reached agreements to demine Maitika/Mitiga Airport and its reconstruction by an Italian consortium - a project valued at EUR 79 million - with the agreement of Ankara. This Monday, there was already a first coordination meeting between the Armies of Italy and the GNA to begin the task of clearing the mines that, according to this faction, the LNA had placed in its withdrawal from Maitika. It is worth mentioning at this point that Turkey will also benefit from the recovery of this city by its Libyan ally, since according to local media reports, it will build a naval military base in its port.
Now, the alliance between Ankara and Rome has entered a new level with the holding of joint military exercises in the waters of the Mediterranean Sea. The Turkish Ministry of Defence reported on Monday that on 13 June last, submarines from both countries had carried out maritime training exercises to improve their "interoperability". "Two navies that have the most effective submarine force in the Mediterranean continue to improve interoperability with maritime training," the organization said on the social network Twitter. The Turkish news agency Anadolu reported that "Turkey and Italy are two regional powers that share common interests, history and values in the Mediterranean basin".
Italian Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio will visit the Eurasian nation to meet with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. Luigi di Maio was supposed to visit Ankara this Wednesday, but the meeting has finally been postponed, with no exact date announced.On the table, bilateral relations, the process of Turkey's accession to the European Union and the fight against COVID-19, according to Anadolu, although regional and international issues are also present, in the framework of which Libya stands out. This trip also carries a very strong message of the strengthening of ties between Ankara and Rome: Di Maio will be one of the first foreign ministers to set foot on Turkish soil since the coronavirus pandemic hit Europe
"Last week, Turkey conducted provocative military exercises and published many photos suggesting it was training for the invasion of the Greek islands," the local Greek City Times reported on Monday. The exercises, which took place June 9-12 in the Mediterranean and Aegean seas, involved warships, drones, cooperative aircraft and helicopters, and special forces, Militaire reported at the time. "This is reminiscent of the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974, just at a time when Turkish propaganda is intensifying the mythology that 18 islands in the eastern Aegean belong to Turkey and not to Greece," they have said since the publication.
The relationship between Ankara and Athens has been corrupted on numerous fronts, including the Eurasian nation's exploration and exploitation of the eastern Mediterranean gas pockets, which are in disputed waters or already belong to the European country.
On the Libyan chessboard, Greece has sided with France, dynamiting its ties with Italy by supporting its traditional rival in the region. The Greek Foreign Ministry, in a press release, expressed its support for the Egyptian initiative, as did Paris. "The restoration of peace can only be achieved by the Libyans themselves. While the prolongation of the crisis serves third parties who interfere in their internal affairs for ulterior motives, peace will benefit not only the Libyans, but also stability and prosperity for all in the eastern Mediterranean," the note stated.
Germany, which hosted the Berlin Conference on 19 January and brought together the world's leading nations to address peace in the North African country, seems to have begun to position itself on the Libyan chessboard, setting aside its defended role as mediator in the conflict. On Tuesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel held a video call with Erdogan, in which they agreed, according to the German spokesperson, "to promote the peace process led by the United Nations in Libya". With this message, Berlin seems to distance itself from the French position, which opts for the initiative presented by Egypt to solve the Libyan puzzle rather than the one led by the UN, which is closer to the interests of the GNA, since it is worth remembering that the government in Tripoli -now led by Sarraj- was sponsored by the United Nations at the end of 2015.
It should be recalled at this point that in a phone call last week between the Chancellor and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Merkel reaffirmed the "key" character of the UN-backed negotiations for a truce in Libya. On 5 June, the German leader also held a dialogue with Sarraj on the latest developments in the civil war, and showed his country's willingness to give all necessary support to ensure that political assessments under the UN umbrella were fruitful.
Furthermore, with the video call, and in view of the intensification of tensions in the Mediterranean, Merkel would have preferred to dialogue with Erdogan rather than with his main ally in Europe, Macron, and the rest of the community partners of NATO, a gesture that could cool down relations between the two powers par excellence of the old continent.
The division in Europe is total, and the lack of a common position that faces the ambitions of third countries involved in the conflict could be lethal to the search for a solution to the Libyan puzzle. The inaction of the old continent, harshly criticised during other crises such as the migration crisis, should not happen again if Brussels does not want to see the European project begin to collapse.