Tunisia must change its counter-terrorism policy to avoid perverse effects

The International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank warned today that some of the anti-terrorism measures implemented by the Tunisian state since 2013 have a "perverse" effect on social cohesion and public confidence in institutions, which could lead to an increase in jihadist violence if the economic and social context continues to deteriorate.

In its latest report entitled 'The Decline of Jihadism in Tunisia', the organisation recommended the enactment of a new state of emergency law, anti-terrorism law and criminal procedure code. It also recommended improving detention conditions and implementing a monitoring system for reconversion.

After the rise of jihadism in the Maghreb country, shortly after the 2011 revolution that put an end to two decades of dictatorship, the country experienced a peak of violence during the chain of attacks in 2015, which killed 72 people, 60 of them foreign tourists. 

The decline in violence between 2016 and 2021 is evident, linked to the defeat of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State at the regional level. Although several thousand Tunisians went to fight in the Middle East and Libya between 2011 and 2016 and have committed four attacks in France and Germany, "the country is not threatened by a mass armed jihadist movement," said ICG researcher Michael Ayari.

The two main terrorist groups: the "Okba Ibn Nafaa" brigade, a local branch of the Al Qaeda terrorist organisation, and the "Jund al Khilafa" (Army of the Caliphate) group, affiliated with the self-proclaimed Islamic State, have lost two-thirds of their numbers since 2016, from 250 to less than 60 members.

In addition, an estimated 200 Tunisian nationals are currently fighting in the Middle East and around 100 in the Sahel region alongside jihadist groups, Ayari estimated.

Most of the 2,200 or so detainees linked to terrorism cases will leave prison over the next three years and most are living in conditions conducive to recidivism, while others have been abused, so their prospects for reintegration are very limited, the specialist warned.

"It is a question of moving from a repressive logic to a preventive logic that would strengthen social cohesion and citizens' confidence in institutions," the ICG expert argued.

As for the threat of a possible return of fighters to their country of origin, he declared that this is an "exaggerated concern" since of the 3,000 fighters who joined their ranks, more than two thirds could have been killed or imprisoned abroad.

Moreover, between 2011 and 2016, 800 of them returned to Tunisia after being defeated "militarily", which was perceived as a failure, and were sentenced to between three and eight years in prison. Since then, Ayari notes, none of the returnees has committed an attack on Tunisian soil.

Approximately 2,200 jihadists are imprisoned in Tunisia and only a dozen of them are considered "very dangerous" by the intelligence services, and 160 have been sentenced for attacks on Tunisian soil.

These Salafist and jihadist movements have lost their influence on young people, who no longer see them as an "anti-establishment" remedy, the expert concluded.