Turkey and the effects of Erdogan's authoritarianism

On the night of Friday 15 July 2016, Turkey's history took a radical turn. An attempted coup d'état put the established constitutional order on the line. This event, which further accentuated the country's polarisation, was also the spark that lit the fuse of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's authoritarian drift. Almost four years later, the economic slowdown resulting from the coronavirus pandemic is changing the political dynamics of this nation. In this context, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahceli, has presented a proposal to change the electoral laws, an announcement that has fed rumours of possible early elections. 

"The MHP believes that it is necessary to undertake some reforms in relation to the presidential system of government that was adopted for the normalization of democracy in Turkey, achieving peace and confidence as a nation, as well as for our political system to gain respect," Bahçeli said in his speech during the Eid celebration.

Bahçeli added more fuel to the fire on these speculations by proposing changes to the country's electoral law. The change would prevent parliamentarians from joining some of the opposition parties that have formed in recent months such as the Future Party (GP), led by Ahmet Davutoglu, Erdogan's advisor for more than a decade and prime minister and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) between 2014 and 2016. Such measures would pose an electoral threat to Ankara's ruling bloc known as the People's Alliance and formed by the MHP and the AKP itself. 

Turkish electoral regulations stipulate that political parties must hold their first plenary session six months before the date of the election. In addition, any political formation with at least 20 legislators in the Turkish parliament has the right to participate in the elections and to receive financial assistance from the treasury for the electoral process. In the current scenario of economic uncertainty in the Eurasian nation, the main opposition leader, the Republican People's Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has insinuated the possibility of "transferring" some legislators from his own formation to the newly founded parties to ensure their participation in the elections, according to the daily Arab News. 

The DEVA and Futuro parties, led by former AKP members Ali Babacan and Ahmet Davutoglu respectively, have been formed in the past six months and have yet to hold plenary sessions. If the CHP parliamentarians were part of these parties, according to Kilicdaroglu's suggestion, both political formations could be eligible to participate in the next elections, splitting the conservative vote that has traditionally favoured the AKP-MHP people's alliance. 

In recent weeks, Babacan has criticised the fact that Erdogan has moved from a parliamentary system to one that gives the president broad powers "without any control or balance", according to statements collected by Arab News. "The AKP is abolishing what it built with its own hands. The country's reputation and economy are in ruins. The number of competent people in the ruling party has declined. Decisions are being made without consultation," he stressed. Babacan has also denounced the fact that some AKP members are competing with each other for "personal financial gain". 

The Arab News has interviewed Berk Esen, a political analyst at Ankara's Bilkent University, who believes that "recent statements by Babacan could have angered Erdogan". "As a technocrat, Babacan earns the respect of secular circles as well as the international community, something Erdogan clearly lacks. Despite 13 years in office, Babacan has not been tainted by allegations of corruption and is known as the main architect of Turkey's rapid economic growth during the AKP's first two terms," he said. 

The electoral reform that the AKP and MHP are reportedly working on could prevent the transfer of parliamentarians only in the event of early elections. Otherwise, both DEVA and the Future Party could meet the necessary requirements to participate in these elections. 

The leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahceli, proposed this reform after Kilicdaroglu explained that he was willing to transfer some of his MPs to the DEVA and Future parties, in the same way as they had done with the IYI Party before the 2018 elections. At the moment, political actors in Turkey are analysing the political and economic consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, a pandemic that could lead Turkey to hold early elections, if the rumours finally come true. 

"Bahceli wants to prevent DEVA and Futuro from participating in the elections. This also shows that the popularity of the AKP-MHP coalition is declining and right-wing voters might prefer Babacan or Davutoglu because of the economic difficulties," political scientist Burak Bilgehan Ozpek told Al-Monitor. "Early elections seem to be an irrational event, but it is possible. The economy will not improve and the AKP's popularity will continue to decline," he added.

The MHP has its origins in the ultra-nationalist and anti-communist movements of the 1970s.  After the AKP came to power, it introduced a number of proposals to benefit its constituency. "I think they are releasing balloons and seeing which one will float," Berk Esen, professor of international relations at Bilkent University in Ankara told Al-Monitor. "Although not many of these balloons have floated so far," he concluded. 

Erdogan would win again if an election were held, according to polls

However, an election poll conducted by the Turkish research company Optimar has indicated that the Turkish leader would beat his main Republican rivals in the upcoming presidential elections. A total of 44.7 percent of participants said they would vote for Erdogan compared to 34.7 percent who said they would support Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu in the case of a presidential election, according to Ahval News.  

The arrival in power of Imamoğlu in the 2019 local elections has dealt a heavy blow to Erdogan's party, which had ruled the city of the Bosphorus for more than a decade. The next presidential election in the Eurasian nation is scheduled for 2023. However, the coronavirus has had the power to change the world as we have known it until now, a transformation that could influence the date of the elections in the country founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.