Turkey and Tunisia's strategy to avoid the Libyan arms embargo

The European Union launched a new naval mission on March 31st to control the arms embargo imposed on Libya in 2011 after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi and the dismemberment of the country into two parallel administrations, one in Tripoli and the other in the eastern Tobruk. Under the name of EUNAVFOR MED "Irini", the mission has the key aim to "promoting peace in our neighbourhood" and is "a tangible way in which the EU is helping to end the long-running conflict in Libya, right on the EU’s doorstep", according to a statement issued by the European External Action Service (EEAS).

"Irini" is integrated by troops from member countries like Germany, which two weeks ago approved an initial detachment of up to 300 soldiers who would participate in the mission until April 31, 2021. "Irini" will be led by Rear Admiral Fabio Agostini as EU Operation Commander, and its headquarters will be located in Rome, Italy.

The first operation of the new naval mission took place on April 26, according to Itamilradar. A series of reconnaissance and technical support aircraft, which had departed from the Sigonella base in southern Italy, flew for six hours over the strip of territorial waters between Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar and Misrata, Libyan cities traditionally used by Turkey to bring arms into the North African country.

On Monday it was also revealed by the French website Aftica Intelligence that "CAE" firm from France, specialized in aviation surveillance, has been shriveling the Turkish ships heading to Libya. However, as explained in the publication, "France is doing this mission without waiting for the start of the European Union's Operation IRINI'", "which didn't get the needed resources to start work". 

It should be recalled, at this point, that the Eurasian nation has repeatedly failed to comply with the arms embargo, although its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has always declared that he advocates ensuring peace in Libya, as he stated at the Berlin Conference last January. In this line, it should be noted that Turkey often uses Tunisia's "back door" to get its war material to the Government of National Unity (GNA), one of the two factions in the Libyan conflict led by Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj and based in Tripoli.

In fact, it was learned in mid-February that four Turkish Navy ships had docked in the Tunisian port of La Goulette, located just 10 kilometers from Tunis. Although the intentions of this Turkish move were not revealed at the time, everything seemed to indicate - particularly after a meeting between the two leaders, Kais Saied and Erdogan - that Ankara was trying to strengthen its military presence in the region in the face of the Libyan dispute with the approval of Tunisia.

Now, a national lawyer from the latter country, Waza Al-Shazly, has issued an alert about Turkey's possible intentions - with Tunisia's acquiescence - to circumvent "Irini" in order to continue sending weapons to its positions in Libya. "Coinciding with the launch of the European mission, Tunisia has decided to open a direct sea line between the port of Sfax and the Libyan port of Tripoli", connected by only 527 kilometres, a journey which, by boat, is completed in 48 hours.

The inauguration of what has been officially considered as a new commercial route between the two countries - since, as L'Economiste Maghrébin reports, Libya is the main destination for Tunisian seasonal fruit exports - took place on April 27th.  

The manager of the Tunisian port, Enis Kemmun, declared that the route was opened with the departure of a ship loaded with 134 containers of food, mainly seasonal fruits and vegetables, towards the Libyan capital. In addition, Tunisian Trade Minister Mohammed al-Museylini said the decision was taken because "the mobility restrictions imposed by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic make it impossible to export the products by land". The Tunisian Interprofessional Fruit Group (GiFruits) also took part in the opening of the maritime line.

Kemmun also reported that the trips will be made every ten days and "will be limited, initially, to exports". Thus, the next trip was made on May 4, when about 300 containers were sent. 

However, some analysts warn that the new trade route could be used by Turkey to send war material to the GNA and the Syrian mercenaries it has financed to fight against the troops of the Libyan National Liberation Army (LNA), commanded by Marshal Jalifa Haftar. 

In fact, already in 2013, an attempt was made to connect the two points, but the project was not successful for "security reasons", according to the TRT media. Al-Shazly urged the Tunisian authorities to step up surveillance in the west of the country, which borders Libya, pointing out that both Ankara and the Egyptian-based Muslim Brotherhood pose a growing threat to Tunisia, which has abandoned a neutral position in the Libyan conflict. "Do not lower your guard in the west of the country [the border with Libya]. Their plot is dangerous for the entire region and don't underestimate the intensity of the war in Tripoli. If it fails [Turkey], Tunisia will not be spared [...]," the lawyer has posted on his social networks. 

Two weeks ago, Ankara rejected the launch of "Irini" and accused Europe of "deceiving its ally in Tripoli". He also denied rumours of a possible intensification of arms shipments to extremists and smuggling gangs, which had been planned after the seizure of the ANG - with Turkish help - from the west coast, from Zawiyah to Ras Agadir. Sarraj's executive also showed his opposition to the new EU naval mission, which he described as "suspicious" and partisan, since they assure that they will only monitor the movements of the ANG and its allies, ignoring the activities of the rival faction headed by Haftar.