Turkey earthquakes bring Erdoğan and El Sisi's agendas closer together

The devastating earthquakes in early February in Turkey's Kahramanmaraş province, which left more than 46,000 dead under the rubble in southern Turkey and northern Syria, are now shaking the geopolitics of the region. In the midst of an international campaign to assist the victims, the Egyptian government of Abdel Fattah El Sisi has reached out to Ankara to rebuild diplomatic ties that have been severed since the military coup that toppled Erdoğan's great ally, former Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi, a decade ago. Before the tragedy, their relations were already going through a period of détente promoted by the Turkish president with those who had been his great regional adversaries since the outbreak of the Arab Spring. 

Erdoğan, who continued to consider the Islamist Morsi as Egypt's legitimate president even two years after his fall at the hands of the then commander-in-chief of the army and Defence Minister Abdel Fattah El Sisi, embarked a few months ago on an ambitious policy of rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in addition to Egypt, in order to resume trade with the Gulf monarchies in a context of domestic crisis, with inflation in double digits and the Turkish lira sharply devalued. Cairo, in the midst of an even deeper economic crisis and awaiting assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), also needs to bury diplomatic tensions. 

"The long-standing rift between Egypt and Turkey has recently shown signs of easing," comments analyst Ben Fishman in the pages of the Washington Institute. At the opening of the World Cup in Qatar, El Sisi and Erdoğan shook hands in front of a sea of photographers and the watchful eye of Emir Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani in the background. It was no coincidence. Doha had been planning for weeks a meeting that signified the Turkish leader's implicit recognition of El Sisi's legitimacy eight years after taking office.

Egypt was one of the first countries to respond to the humanitarian emergency caused by the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria. Indeed, El Sisi called Erdoğan minutes after the second quake to offer his condolences, an unusual gesture between the leaders of two countries that have not even appointed ambassadors to their respective capitals. The few bilateral contacts over the past 10 years have functioned at the level of chargé d'affaires. But that did not stop the Egyptian president from pledging to provide humanitarian aid. 

El Sisi delivered. In the first hours of the tragedy, the Egyptian president dispatched five military aircraft with medical assistance, which were spread across the 11 affected Turkish provinces. On Thursday morning, two more planes took off for Turkey loaded with medicine, according to a statement issued by the Ministry of Defence. And hours earlier, an Egyptian Naval Forces vessel carrying humanitarian aid docked in the Turkish port of Mersin with more cargo. 

In an apparent sign of gratitude, Erdoğan's government days later allowed a group of Turkish businessmen intending to invest in Egypt to travel to Cairo to meet with Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbuli. It was the first such meeting in a decade. "Regardless of any previous political disagreements, we have always been ready to maintain our people-to-people relations and our close economic and trade cooperation," the Egyptian head of government explained on Wednesday.  

"Egypt is privatising a number of state-owned enterprises, and Turkey could play a role in that process along with strong investments from Gulf countries," Fishman stressed. For the time being, the volume of Turkish investment in Egypt could be as high as $500 million. 

This new attempt at rapprochement between Cairo and Ankara is of concern to the Turkish-based Muslim Brotherhood. Some 1,500 members of the group settled in Turkey after leaving Egypt following Morsi's ouster, although many have decided to flee in recent months amid fears that Erdoğan will facilitate their extradition. Since 2019, the Turkish government has been deporting some members of the Brotherhood and profiles akin to the organisation with the aim of ironing out differences with Egypt and the Gulf countries. 

"There is no political party in Turkey that clearly and openly represents the Muslim Brotherhood. However, some members of the [ruling] Justice and Development Party (AKP) have provided various forms of support to the Brotherhood, such as granting asylum to its wanted members and equipping radio and satellite television stations," reports the Counter Extremism Project. "Despite being charged in absentia by the Egyptian government, some Brotherhood fugitives have been allowed to gather openly in Turkey and organise against the Egyptian government".

Erdoğan's links with the Muslim Brotherhood date back to the 1970s, but the Turkish president is now trying to distance himself from the movement. "Erdoğan is no longer positioning his government, or himself, as the absolute state sponsor of Sunni Islamist groups across the Arab world, given the shifts and realignments in the region, from Syria to Libya," note analysts Emily Milliken and Giorgio Cafiero in Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN). The dynamics of rapprochement with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates condition the chessboard. 

The Muslim Brotherhood's loss of influence at the regional level facilitates Erdoğan's shift in alliances. "Across the region, Brotherhood-aligned governments have fallen one after another, from Tunisia to Sudan, ousted by strongmen or military juntas linked to the Gulf monarchies," point out Milliken and Cafiero. But it may be too early to write off their ties, as they continue to share interests.