Turkey prioritises relations with Egypt over Mediterranean gas and distances itself from the Muslim Brotherhood
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is clear about what his country's priority objective should be. Currently, reaching an agreement with Egypt and being able to count on its support in oil and gas matters seems essential for Ankara, which has made the first approaches. Throughout the week, controversy has surrounded this issue, as while Turkey's foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, claimed that they had reached a rapprochement with Egypt over maritime borders, Cairo denied these assertions, which finally seem likely to come to fruition. Another concern in Erdogan's government is the extent to which this rapprochement might affect relations with its Muslim Brotherhood partners.
Turkey has been trying for some time to gain certain economic advantages in the trade of oil and, above all, gas from the Eastern Mediterranean area. However, understanding between Turks and Egyptians is not proving easy, despite President Erdogan's willingness to do so at first hand. Cavusoglu announced earlier this week that 'according to the course of our relations, we can negotiate with Egypt on the areas of maritime jurisdiction and sign an agreement'. In other words, he was already putting the possibility of closer ties with El-Sisi's government on the table.
Central to this issue was Turkey's perception of the agreement reached between Greece and Egypt in the summer of 2020 on its exclusive economic zone, which Ankara described as 'illegal' at the time. When questioned, the foreign minister said that Cairo "respected Turkey's southern continental shelf", and that they considered it "very positive". This was in stark contrast to statements he made immediately after the Egypt-Greece agreement was signed: "Turkey will not allow any activity in this region and is determined to continue to defend without hesitation the legitimate rights and interests of our country and the Turkish Cypriots". What has been clear to Ankara is that without the necessary step back it would be impossible to get closer to El-Sisi's side.
Even so, there is no guarantee that talks between the two countries will come to fruition. Indeed, Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry has denied his Turkish counterpart: "Egypt's respect for the maritime borders of Mediterranean countries is not new and Turkey's attempts to claim that the two countries have negotiated are incorrect". The Egyptians are more concerned with strengthening their relations with Cyprus and Greece than with Ankara's demands as it continues to try to carve out a niche for itself in hypothetical multilateral negotiations.
El-Sisi himself has recently held telephone conversations with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to address the issue of cooperation in the Mediterranean. Egypt's own presidential spokesman, Bassam Radi, said they were looking forward to closer ties, especially on energy. The East Med Gas Forum, attended by Greece, Egypt, Cyprus, Cyprus, Jordan, Italy and Israel, was a good example of this. It is not surprising that Turkey was not present, a further sign of the difficulties that Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government is having in establishing good relations with its neighbours, with whom it is finding it increasingly difficult to reach agreements.
But now a new scenario has emerged. After the Turkish foreign minister announced the start of rapprochement with Egypt and Cairo's denial, Turkey has now gone back on the attack. Mevlut Cavusoglu has stated that its 'contacts with Egypt have begun at the diplomatic level'. And President Erdogan has decided to go a step further in a statement to Turkey's Anadolu Agency: "We want contacts with Egypt to continue, and if they achieve positive results, we will work to strengthen them and raise their level". In other words, Ankara does not just hope to achieve an advantageous agreement on gas and oil in the Eastern Mediterranean; it wants the ties it hopes to achieve with Cairo to have some traction and to be able to maintain friendly relations with a country with which it has not had very good contacts in recent years.
The reasons go back further. Ever since El-Sisi came to power in Egypt after overthrowing the Muslim Brotherhood in a coup, Turkey has refused to enter into any kind of agreement with them. The ties between the Turks and the Brotherhood are not only very dangerous, but also have a history that could begin to break after the rapprochement with the Egyptian government. To this must be added the two countries' differing positions on other highly contentious issues in the Middle East, such as the civil war in Libya.
Ties between Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood could be hanging by a thread due to the evident tension between the Brotherhood and Egypt. The oldest Islamist organisation on record is also considered a terrorist organisation internationally. The Erdogan government's ties with them are linked to the conflict in Yemen, in which Turkey is, unsurprisingly, involved. The intention of both sides is to put an end to the Iranian-backed Houthi militias as soon as possible. There have already been meetings between Turkish representatives and some Yemenis who had to leave the country in exile and are now fighting for the Muslim Brotherhood.
Names such as Abdullah Al-Zindani - son of the terrorist considered by the US to be "Bin Laden loyalist" - and Hamid Al-Ahmar are among those with whom the Turkish government is allying itself. In fact, Al-Ahmar is actively lobbying the Erdogan government to support the terrorist organisation's initiative to declare a "Hadramout region". This area would, however, be controlled and managed by the Muslim Brotherhood, in addition to financial support and a substantial aid package. Al-Ahmar has also put pressure on the former leader of the internationally recognised government, Hadi, calling on him to appeal to the younger faithful to fight the Houthi militias and reclaim Yemen.
Clearly, Turkey's relationship with an organisation such as the Muslim Brotherhood is extremely delicate due to the dangerous nature of both. However, according to sources close to Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government, Ankara wants to prioritise the link with Egypt, as they consider that the alliance with the Brotherhood has not been as fruitful as they might have hoped at the beginning. This information must not have gone down well within an organisation that continues to focus its efforts on the conflict in Yemen, currently considered by the United Nations to be the greatest humanitarian crisis since the Second World War.
After several days of declarations and denials by both the Turkish and Egyptian governments, it is expected that an important agreement will begin to materialise in the near future for both countries - probably more so for Turkey. However, they will have to keep a close eye on the movements of the Muslim Brotherhood, who have been demonstrating for some time now that they are a threat that neither the Turkish president can forget nor the rest of the Middle East can afford to lose sight of.