Turkish Cypriots go to the polls divided between federalists and separatists

The tenth presidential elections being held today in the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (RTNC) are seen by many as a key step towards the resumption of efforts to reunify Cyprus and, above all, as a referendum on its relationship with Turkey, which controls that state de facto economically and militarily.

In the elections, which are scheduled for April but postponed for six months owing to the coronavirus pandemic, the nearly 200,000 voters called upon to cast their votes will be able to choose from among 11 candidates, including the current president, Mustafa Akinci.

Akinci is coming as an independent and represents the most progressive wing of the Turkish Cypriot left. In his five years of office he has had several clashes with Ankara and the Turkish president himself, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and therefore wants to break the dependence on Turkey.

He advocates a bi-zonal, bi-communal solution, with political equality, with a single sovereignty, a single international legal personality and a single citizenship; according to the latest polls, Akinci would have 30 % support which would allow him to move on to a second round which is expected to take place on 18 October.

Tatar, also leader of the National Unity Party (PUN), enjoys strong support in Ankara, represents a nationalist line and advocates the creation of two independent states.

Local observers doubt the accuracy of the polls, which they claim have been financed by political parties and Turkey. Therefore, they do not exclude that in the second round, Akinci and the leader of the Turkish Republican Party (PTR), Tufan Erhurman, also a federalist, who is given 15.1% by the polls, will face each other.

Despite the clear importance of knowing who will be elected, the analysts warn that the future of the RTNC will not depend only on that and that Turkey will have a lot to say.

The Turkish army occupied the north of the island of Cyprus in 1974 and in 1983 the Turkish Cypriots unilaterally declared the RTNC, which was only recognised by Ankara.

The United Nations sponsors the Cyprus negotiations and informed in September through its Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, of its intention to undertake, after the election of the new Turkish Cypriot leader, an umpteenth effort to resume the peace negotiations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots.

According to Jaris Psaltis, professor at the University of Cyprus, who studies social psychology in the two communities, the importance of these elections lies in the fact that if Akinci is re-elected "efforts to achieve a federation will continue, as he will receive the approval of his community".

"Otherwise, Turkey could take advantage of the opportunity to opt for a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation, which means continuing with the current status quo or a two-state solution, something rejected by 80 percent of Greek Cypriots," Psaltis told EFE.

The elections have been preceded by a very special election campaign, which has been transferred to social networks and television because of the coronavirus pandemic, something which could in turn have an impact on the outcome of the elections, as low turnout is not excluded.

"I am going to vote for Akinci. He is a peacemaker, a federalist and our only chance of successfully concluding the negotiations under the UN," peace activist and consultant Kemal Baykalli told EFE.

He added that "the Turkish Cypriots, although they hold Turkey to their hearts, are used to their autonomy as a separate community and do not like Ankara supporting a specific candidate".

This week Turkey made clear its support to Tatar with the joint announcement of the reopening of part of the sealed beach of the ghost town of Varosha in Famagusta, one of the traumas of the conflict and a key point in all the negotiations.

Also, hours before the start of the day of reflection, Akinci said in a TV interview that he had been threatened by the Turkish government that it would be "better for you, your family and yours if you were not a candidate".

According to Baykalli, moreover, being historically secular, the Turkish Cypriots do not agree with Erdogan's Islamic agenda, "so they react negatively to Ankara's intervention in their affairs, like their right to choose their own leader".

"Turkey remains the sole economic sponsor of the administration in the north," Baykalli said, adding that although many voters emphasise the identity of the community, it has lived in the shadow of Turkey for more than four decades.

Turkey continues to cause concern to the international community. Following the tensions with Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean, it is now preparing to reopen the coastal neighbourhood of Varosha in the north of the island, an area that has been sealed off as a military zone for 46 years and is considered a key area in the Turkish-Cypriot conflict.

Varosha beach is located near the port of Famagusta, the main tourist centre of Cyprus before it was abandoned after the Turkish occupation of the north of the island in 1974, and has been sealed off as a military zone for 46 years.

While over the years Famagusta has regained its original number of inhabitants, some 40,000, although not the original ones, the area of Varosha was closed off with a fence and wires by the Turkish armed forces.

The reopening, which has unleashed a trail of criticism at all levels, was announced from Ankara by the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, together with the prime minister of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (RTNC), Ersin Tatar, a candidate in today's Turkish Cypriot presidential elections.

The dispute comes at a time of particular tension over Turkey's exploration in Mediterranean waters which are sovereign or overlap with the exclusive economic zones of Greece and Cyprus and which the European Union considers illegal.