Turkish pressure on Syrian Kurds increases

The focus this time is on the enclave of Ain Issa, a town located at a crossroads between the roads that connect Kobane, Raqqa, Manbij and Qamishli, and which lies on the M4, the important Syrian highway that crosses the north of the country.

The city is under Kurdish control and has become the epicentre of the Kurdish administration in northern Syria, thanks also to the support of the United States, which arrived in the city in 2016. However, after the US withdrawal, Turkey has tried to take control of the city even though it is beyond the limit set in the Sochi agreements of 2019.

According to these agreements, a corridor was set up up up to 20 miles from the Turkish border, in which joint patrols would be established between Turkish and Russian forces. However, although Ain Issa is 23 miles from the border with Turkey, the pressure of the Turkish forces, with the help of the Syrian National Army (SNA), a pro-Turkish militia, has increased considerably.

As a result of the increased pressure, both Kurds and Russians have come together to evaluate which are the possible answers that can be carried out in order to avoid a confrontation. On the Russian side, the representatives of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are led by the Kurds, have been asked to cede control of Ain Issa to the Syrian government in order to prevent the Turkish advance towards the city from being consolidated. This alternative has already been realised in the city of Qamishli, with the difference that in this Kurdish majority city the proximity to the Turkish border was an obvious threat.

Kurdish sources claim that this formula has not been accepted, but that an agreement has been reached to establish three military observation posts along the M4 motorway to monitor the possible Turkish advance towards the city and, if this is achieved, it could then be directed to Raqqa. The advance in this direction could give Turkey access to the oil fields in the region of Deir Ezzor in the east of the country, a possibility that the Kurdish representatives point out in order to draw Damascus' attention to what is at stake.

Russia, for its part, tries to mediate to strengthen the control of Damascus in the north, but it cannot leave the Kurdish forces to their fate either, and that Turkey's territorial interference increases more than what was agreed upon in Sochi last year, hence it has agreed on the Kurdish request and strengthened the Russian presence in the city of Ain Issa.

Turkey, as well as Russia, is also interested in the transfer of territorial control to the Syrian government, thus weakening the power of the Kurds in the north, and the possible relation they might have with the Turkish Kurds and movements such as the PKK, the sworn enemy of Ankara. A fragile balance, and with too many actors on the ground to allow the conflict to end. The Kurdish forces do not stop denouncing the violations of the ceasefire established by Turkey, and they denounce the lack of forcefulness of Russia to answer to them, in order to favour the interests of Damascus.

Moreover, the imminent arrival of Joe Biden to the White House may mean a change in the USA's position concerning the situation in Syria, which would reduce Turkey's room for manoeuvre and, hence, Ankara tries to look for last minute victories to consolidate its position in the north of Syria.