Twelve Iranian missiles hit the vicinity of the US consulate in Erbil

A dozen ballistic missiles struck early Sunday morning in the vicinity of the US consulate north of Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility minutes later for the attack, which did not kill anyone but left two people injured and caused extensive material damage, according to local officials. This is the first Iranian attack on US targets in two years.

In retaliation for the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad, the number three in the Islamic Republic's line of power executed during the Trump administration, Iran fired missiles at the Al Asad air base in western Iraq, where Iraqi and US forces operate jointly. This timid attack preceded the uprising by Iraqi Shiite militias against US facilities, instigated by Tehran.

During this period, Washington limited itself to responding by launching air strikes, freezing tensions that were significantly reduced with the arrival of Joe Biden in the White House, less combative with Tehran than his predecessor and determined to rescue the 2015 nuclear agreement. The rapid progress of negotiations for its reactivation ended up sealing a momentary truce between Washington and Tehran. A truce that seems to have collapsed.

Although the Iranian and US delegations did not talk face-to-face, but through the other signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the resumption of the agreement seemed to be a foregone conclusion after months of negotiations. The parties were due to complete the latest round of talks and return to their respective capitals with the task of receiving the final green light.

But Russia's invasion of Ukraine undid the breakthrough. Russia, one of the five signatories, on Friday demanded relief from Western sanctions and a guarantee that it would be able to maintain trade relations with Iran under the nuclear deal. These demands were rejected by the United States, which considered them to be part of a scenario outside the JCPOA.

The refusal of the other signatories has forced the Iranian foreign minister to travel to Moscow on Tuesday to rescue the nuclear agreement. Hosein Amirabdolahian and Ebrahim Raisi's government want to get the Kremlin to agree to the agreement, which is being held hostage by the economic blockade to which it is being subjected by the West in response to its aggression in Ukraine. Enrique Mora, Josep Borrell's number two, will announce the resumption of the negotiations, which have been paused until further notice.

But Tehran has denied that it attacked the newly opened US consulate, which is still without diplomatic staff, but rather two secret Israeli intelligence bases located in the area. In a statement issued by state news agencies, Iran said it had targeted a "strategic centre of Zionist conspiracies in Erbil". The offensive was reportedly in retaliation for the killing of four people in Syria during an Israeli bombing, two of them members of the Revolutionary Guards.

In any case, the attack was condemned by Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kazemi and his Kurdish counterpart Masrour Barzani. Meanwhile, the governor of Erbil, Omed Joshnau, denied the presence of Israeli bases on Iraqi territory: "The subject of Israel has been talked about for a long time. It is unfounded. The existence of Mossad facilities or those of any other security body of the Hebrew state in Iraq has not been reported, although it is true that Israeli intelligence services collaborate with US intelligence services.

According to analysts, the attack was measured and calculated to avoid a strong reaction. With this move, Iran reinforces its willingness to defend its share of influence in Iraq to the detriment of other actors, all the more so in the context of political instability in Baghdad, where protracted negotiations to form a government could be close to fructifying months after the elections.

Personal differences between the Shiite forces, which hold the majority in the lower house, have hampered negotiations to appoint a new prime minister. Iran defined its position on this issue in January, advocating an understanding between the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and the other Tehran-backed forces. It was to this end that the commander of the Quds Force, General Esmail Qaani, travelled in January, determined to mediate between the parties.

Americas Coordinator: José Antonio Sierra