Ultra-conservative Raisi wins Iran's presidential elections

The ultra-conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi, head of the judiciary, won a landslide victory in Iran's presidential election without much surprise, according to preliminary results. In an election marked by low turnout, or so the polls suggest, as a result of political disillusionment and the country's severe economic problems.

The start of the election race was not without controversy as the Guardian Council, the body in charge of approving candidates, rejected several prominent reformist and moderate candidates, such as former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani.

Conservative Raisi, a close associate of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, had run against President Rohani in 2017. Raisi is the best known of the contenders and opinion polls have shown that Iranians were receptive to his anti-corruption campaign. As a religious figure, he has great power and influence within the country, yet the cleric's past creates controversy for being involved in a justice system in Iran that is frowned upon among activists.

During the election campaign, he has advocated "a strong Iran" and "efficient management" of internal resources and capacities to achieve "a production boom". He has also promised to fight corruption and support young people to improve their economic situation with measures such as the construction of four million houses, with which he intends to reduce high prices. He is the candidate who has held the most election rallies, although they have been very limited due to the restrictions imposed by COVID-19, and his image is more present in the propaganda posters scattered around Tehran.

In yesterday's presidential elections, Raisi's victory was clear due to the weakness of his opponents, and what generated more uncertainty was the turnout, which is very important to legitimise the Iranian theocratic system. The current president, Hasan Rohani, also congratulated the president-elect, although without naming him because by law the official announcement of the results must be awaited.

For several months, the opposition in exile has been carrying out a campaign on social networks to boycott the elections, using the slogan "No to the Islamic Republic", among other slogans. Following the violent repression of the waves of protests in the winter of 2017-2018 and November 2019, a clear distrust of the government is becoming more and more openly expressed.

Within Iran, candidates exist on a political spectrum that broadly includes hardliners who want to expand Iran's nuclear programme, moderates who cling to the 'status quo' and reformists who want to change the theocracy from within.

Only three of the 592 people who registered made it through the filter of the powerful Guardian Council, which rejected the candidacy of leading figures such as former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani, current first vice president Eshaq Yahanguiri, one of the few remaining reformists, and ultra-conservative former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose candidacy was also rejected and who will not vote in the election.

The other three leading candidates were Mohsen Rezai, who won 3.3 million votes; Abdolnaser Hemati, who won 2.4 million; and Amirhosein Qazizadeh Hashemi, who won 1 million. The remaining votes are understood to have been blank or invalid, according to Efe.

The Iranian elections come at a difficult time for a country hit by an economic crisis aggravated by the pandemic and US-imposed economic sanctions. For the reformists and moderates who have ruled with Rohani since 2013, the solution to the country's problems lies in the talks underway in Vienna to try to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

The return to the nuclear pact is one of the key issues in the Iranian presidential elections. The Persian country has already stated that its nuclear policy will not change after the elections, but Western powers are wary and fear that the arrival of a conservative in power will hinder negotiations to reinstate the 2015 nuclear agreement.

In elections marked by the pandemic, the severe economic crisis and the inherent tensions in the region. More than 59 million Iranians were called to the polls, but only 28.6 million turned out to vote, although this is not the final total, due to public disillusionment with politics and serious economic problems. Nonetheless, the international community will be closely watching what happens in Iran, as it may bring about a change in the situation in the region.