UN Security Council unanimously approves progress in Libya

All the external actors with influence on the country's drift, and the representatives of the internal factions vying for control of Libya, have shown their support for the election of those in charge of leading this new stage of transition, something that, this time, has raised optimism not only in the international community but also in Libyan society.The UN Security Council on Friday unanimously approved a resolution that supports Libya's progress towards peace and security in the country. 

Libya's new transitional government, led by Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeiba, is starting from a much more comfortable position than its predecessor, the UN-backed Government of National Accord led by Fayez al-Sarraj, did. In his case, despite the support of the UN and other countries, a fracture in the international community could be observed from the outset and was visible on the ground, with two sides totally at loggerheads over political and military power.

The UN hopes that this will not be the case and that during the time remaining until the next elections are held on 24 December this year, the situation will move forward thanks, among other things, to the mediation of the new prime minister, Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeiba. One of his first tasks is the withdrawal of both Turkish and Russian military forces.

Reaching an agreement with the Turks does not seem too difficult a scenario, as Abdul Hamid Dbeiba was Ankara's preferred candidate for the Libyan post. The fact is that the new prime minister has an Islamist orientation, very close to the Muslim Brotherhood. His city of origin, Misrata, located in the north of the country, is the epicentre of the Islamist militias, vital to the GNA's goal of holding Tripoli until the arrival of Syrian mercenaries from Turkey. 

On the Russian side, mediation is more complicated. Dbeiba's proximity to the Turks, together with Russia's already hostile predisposition, make the rapprochement of positions somewhat more complex. What is expected is that the support the new government is receiving from international society as a whole will play an important role in the withdrawal of military forces from both countries. The EU itself, through Josep Borrell, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, has expressed the importance of compliance with the military agreement reached at the end of last year by both parties. An agreement that, in addition to involving the withdrawal of its mercenaries from Libyan territory, includes the embargo on arms shipments and the ceasefire, the latter being the only point of the agreement that, for the moment, has been respected by Turkey and Russia.

The acceptance of Russia and Turkey is key, not only for the good political course of the government, but also for the definitive exit of the mercenaries that both countries keep in the country in support of each side.

The text of the resolution approved yesterday by the Security Council was drafted by the United Kingdom and requested by the Libyan parties when they agreed to cease hostilities in the autumn, after a decade of conflict and power struggles between the east and west of Libya. This text provides for the creation of a ceasefire monitoring mechanism of up to 60 members within the UN political mission in Libya, Manul.

This unit is independent of the ceasefire monitoring mechanism that the former belligerents are setting up in Sirte. The resolution will provide assistance, which does not elaborate on who will control the departure of foreign military and mercenaries, which the UN estimates at 20,000.

The resolution, obtained by AFP, "welcomes the ceasefire agreement of 23 October 2020", as well as the new interim unity government "tasked with leading the country towards national elections on 24 December". In this regard, the Security Council calls for the preparation of "free, fair and inclusive presidential and parliamentary elections". It also urged all those countries seeking to interfere in the conduct of these negotiations to refrain from such interference, which is detrimental to a society that has been mired in instability and violence for a decade.

On security, the resolution stresses "the need to provide for the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (into society) of armed groups and all non-state actors, security sector reform and the creation of an inclusive and accountable defence architecture for Libya".

The text "calls on all Libyan parties to fully implement the ceasefire of 23 October 2020 and strongly urges all member states to respect it, including by withdrawing all foreign forces and mercenaries from Libya without delay."

The figure of 60 UN observers seems a far cry from what the West originally wanted, as it called for "a robust mechanism". However, the UN has come up against Libyan opposition to a strong foreign presence on Libyan territory to monitor the ceasefire, which they want to keep under control.

The presence in Libya of foreign Turkish troops and Russian, Syrian, Chadian and Sudanese mercenaries "is a major concern," UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said on Thursday. But, he said, the UN unarmed civilian observer mission "will focus on the ceasefire".

According to several diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity, the non-exit of foreign troops and mercenaries from Libya, although demanded by Libyan parties themselves since October, is problematic ahead of the elections. Countries in the region, especially Niger, are also concerned about the idea of mercenaries being dispersed across the Sahel to fuel hard-to-control violence.

"Russian-affiliated groups say 'you can't leave until the Turks leave'. And the Turks say 'we are here on a legal basis, we were invited unlike the Russians'" by the former UN-recognised government in Tripoli, a diplomat said.

According to the 5+5 Military Committee agreements, in addition to the ceasefire in place, the mercenaries on Libyan territory should have left the country by now, having exhausted the 90-day deadline since it was signed. However, given that this has not happened, a new meeting is due to take place this week in the city of Sirte, to seek ways to ensure the departure of the large number of external combatants who are present in the Libyan conflict.

The decision that they have not left is in many cases due to the interest of countries such as Turkey to keep them there at all costs and for as long as possible while the political chessboard in the country is being moved. The reality is that the Libyan conflict has been fought over, in many cases, by foreign troops, brought in with the aim of tipping the balance of power to one side or the other.