Uncertainty surrounds Burhan's recent actions amid caution over the disproportionate role of Islamists

In recent days, the Sudanese media has been rife with speculation that the army has aborted a military coup attempt orchestrated by Islamists.

Although its accuracy could not be verified, the speculation allowed disagreements between the army and its Islamist allies to come to light for the first time. 

There were constant reports of arrests. The Sudan Tribune reported that Sudanese security forces arrested a senior general on Tuesday who had recently been forced to retire, more than two years after being accused of leading a failed coup attempt.

Major General Abdel Baqi Bakrawi, former second-in-command of the powerful Armoured Corps, was arrested two days after Burhan ordered him and several other officers implicated in a coup plot in September 2021 to retire. 

Another officer, Khalid Ahmed Al-Mustafa, was also detained. 

Other reports spoke of the arrest of former National Congress Party (NCP) leader Ahmed Haroun.

It was no coincidence that media speculation about a possible coup attempt emerged after a reshuffle of the army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, which affected several prominent posts held by members of the Islamist movement. 

Burhan made new appointments to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Monday, a day after announcing the retirement of several long-serving officers.

Sudan's internationally recognised head of state retained the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mohamed Othman al-Hussein, but appointed a new inspector general and a new head of the air force. 

Another decree by Burhan placed all armed groups fighting alongside the army under his control, including Islamist militants, civilians who joined the war effort and tribal militias that helped enlist them.

The reorganisation came a week after Burhan met with US senior Africa adviser Massad Boulos in Switzerland, where issues such as the transition to civilian rule were discussed, according to government sources.

Boulos' ideas for a lasting civilian-led solution in Sudan are said to have been a source of concern for Islamists, who fear the loss of the gains they have made since the conflict between the army and the Rapid Support Forces began, as well as the squandering of their opportunities to play a prominent political role after the war.

Sudanese academic Mekki El Shibly said: ‘The Americans and their European partners have sent an unequivocal message: an Islamist return to power is unacceptable.’

He added that Burhan subsequently attempted to place Islamist militias under the formal command of the army, opening ‘the widest rift yet between the military leadership and Islamists who gambled on war to regain their lost influence.’

Western, diplomatic and intelligence reports have sounded the alarm in recent months about the growing role of Islamic militants in Burhan's army.

The level of alarm was further heightened by a Reuters report published last month by Khalid Abdelaziz, which shed light on the extent of Islamist militants' involvement in the recruitment and training of thousands of fighters on the army's side.

Citing military sources, the author estimated the number of fighters directly linked to the former ruling National Congress Party at around 5,000, serving mainly in ‘special forces’ units that have made some of the biggest advances for the army, particularly in Khartoum.

In his first interview with the media in years, Ahmed Haroun, president of the NCP and one of four Sudanese politicians wanted by the International Criminal Court, told Reuters that he expected the army to remain in politics after the war and that elections could provide a route back to power for his party and the Islamist movement connected to it.

Leaks of the Islamists' coup attempt contained a thinly veiled threat to Burhan that he would face enormous risks on the ground if he decided to confront them by removing more of their leaders and trying to further reduce their disproportionate influence within the army.

It remains to be seen how regional actors will react to developments. Sudanese sources reported that in recent days, the Eritrean capital, Asmara, experienced a flurry of political activity, led by former Sudanese Intelligence Service Director Lieutenant General Salah Gosh, who was reportedly discussing plans for Sudan's future with Islamist leaders of the PNC.

The mention of Salah Gosh, a long-time protégé of Cairo, is likely to worry Egypt, which reportedly worked with Burhan to sideline Islamist-leaning generals within the Sudanese army.

Gosh's involvement could indicate that the Egyptian-backed army faces the risk of destabilising internal disputes.

It also remains to be seen whether the apparent rift between Burhan and his Islamist allies could change the rules of the game. But for Shibly, this distancing ‘presents an exceptional opportunity,’ as it ‘tightens the noose around the Islamists, stripping them of the influence they have exploited for so long.’

The new development ‘also opens the door to genuine reform of the security sector and creates the conditions for a ceasefire. But this opportunity will not last long,’ he said.