US troops will leave Somalia next month
One of President Trump's latest decisions was to order the withdrawal of most American troops from Somalia on 4 December, some 700 soldiers who are training the Somali armed forces to combat the terrorist threat of Al-Shabbab, a Jihadist group linked to al-Qaeda. Most of the contingent is made up of Special Operations troops who have trained elite Somali units such as the Danab, a unit that has proved very effective in combating terrorism. This cutback was announced after a CIA veteran was killed in combat in Somalia last month, reopening the debate on the American mission in Somalia. Together with Afghanistan and Iraq, Somalia is one of the theatres of operations that Trump categorised as "endless wars" and promised to get out of during his election campaign. With less than a month to go before Biden takes over the presidency, Trump is attempting to fulfil the promise 'in extremis' by ensuring the withdrawal of American troops before January 15. Two weeks before these declarations, Trump also ordered the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan, up to 2,000, and has also proposed a reduction in troops in Iraq (from 3,500 to 2,500), in keeping with his "America First" policy. The date for this reduction coincides with that of Somalia.
The Pentagon has indicated that the troops remaining on the ground will be redeployed to neighbouring countries to address cross-border threats and, therefore, the United States is not abandoning either the ground or its commitment to the fight against terrorism. It is planned that some of these remaining troops will be repositioned in Kenya or Djibouti to continue training the security forces and conducting air strikes with drones. Although the United States is not the only country training troops in Somalia, the European Union and Turkey are very much present on the ground, this withdrawal will leave a gap in the training of the security forces and in their equipment that could be used by Jihadist groups in the area. This vacuum could also be replaced by a greater Chinese presence in the region.
In a previous phase of the Trump Administration, the president supported the US mission in Somalia by approving a Pentagon proposal in March 2017 to expand operations in Somalia. This proposal included a clause that no longer required commanders to obtain a high-level assessment of Al-Shabaab's objectives in designated "active hostilities areas". As a result of this measure, operations have been carried out with fewer and therefore more streamlined controls. In 2018, 47 US drone attacks were carried out and in 2019 the figure rose to 63 attacks.
Despite the fact that it has been decided to pull out most of the troops now, the troops were already withdrawn from the cities of Bossaso and Galkayo at the beginning of the year. Colonel Ahmed Abullahi Seikh, leader of the elite Danab unit, has reiterated how making the US withdrawal permanent "will have a huge toll on counterterrorism efforts,”. The Somali president also made similar statements in response to US policy.
Although the debate over leaving Somalia has been going on since the 90s, when the United States rushed out of the region after the Black Hawk incident in which 18 Americans were killed, this decision by Trump comes at a complicated time for the stability of the region. The parliamentary elections in Somalia will be held next month and the presidential elections in February. The withdrawal of the American troops in January could be used by Al-Shabaab's Jihadists to carry out terrorist attacks, making it difficult for the elections to be conducted correctly. According to the report by the inspector general of the US Department of Defence from July to September, "despite international and local efforts, Al-Shabaab maintains freedom of movement in many parts of southern Somalia and has demonstrated a capacity and intention to attack inside and outside the country, including American interests". Furthermore, the Horn of Africa region is experiencing a complicated political and security situation caused by the Tigray incidents in Ethiopia, a neighbouring country that is also constantly fighting with Al-Shabaab.
As with all President Trump's latest acts in these two months, such as the case of Morocco's recognition of Western Sahara, Biden will be able to reverse this decision. If Trump fails to withdraw his troops before January 20, Biden could even paralyse this withdrawal.