Who is sabotaging the rapprochement between Algeria and France?

The diplomatic crisis between Algeria and France has entered a new phase of tension. Algeria has ordered the expulsion of 12 French diplomats, giving them just 48 hours to leave the country. This measure comes after the arrest in Paris of an employee of the Algerian consulate, accused of being involved in the kidnapping of opposition blogger Amir Boukhors, known as ‘Amir DZ’, who has enjoyed political asylum in France since 2023. 

The French National Anti-Terrorist Prosecutor's Office announced the arrest of three Algerian citizens, one of them an employee of the consulate in Paris, for their alleged involvement in the kidnapping of Amir DZ, a well-known influencer and opposition activist. They are accused of ‘arrest, kidnapping and arbitrary detention in connection with a terrorist plot’, as well as ‘participation in a criminal conspiracy of a terrorist nature’. 

Algiers responded by summoning the French ambassador, Stéphane Romatet, to express its formal protest. The Algerian Foreign Ministry also denounced a violation of bilateral and international agreements and demanded the immediate release of the detained official. In a statement, it said that the arrest was not accidental, but ‘a deliberate attempt to disrupt the process of reactivating bilateral relations agreed by the heads of state’. 

In response to the expulsion of its diplomats, Paris has warned that it will apply reciprocal measures if Algeria does not reverse its decision. The French Foreign Minister stressed that ‘France will be forced to respond in the same way’, which would further close the doors to diplomatic dialogue that seeks to resolve the conflict that is approaching one year. 

This not only rekindles a crisis that seemed to be on the road to resolution, but also highlights the internal struggles within the Algerian political system. This recent decision raises serious questions about which actors, or factions, are really driving Algerian foreign policy. 

If the expulsion of the French diplomats was a direct decision of President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, then he must assume full political responsibility for the deterioration of relations. But if it was driven by a sector of the regime, whether from the presidential environment or the powerful military apparatus, then it would be a deliberate sabotage of the presidential will, revealing significant rifts in the country's leadership. 

Recent history suggests this second option, as every time a de-escalation between Paris and Algiers is glimpsed, a new setback arises that again strains the relationship. The visit of the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, to Algeria the previous week was presented as a sign of détente, as was the joint declaration between Macron and Tebboune, which aimed to turn the page and prioritise common interests. 

The official Algerian narrative has consistently pointed to the French far right as responsible for fomenting the crisis, accusing figures such as Interior Minister Bruno Reteau of exploiting tensions for electoral purposes. However, the speed and forcefulness with which the French diplomats were expelled suggests another possibility: an undeclared faction within the Algerian government, which could be found in the presidency or in the military apparatus, is acting to prevent any real rapprochement with Paris. 

This faction would take advantage of historical tensions, such as the colonial memory, the migratory conflicts and the wounds of the past, to stop any reconciliation. The signals are clear, as every gesture of rapprochement is followed by a political or diplomatic counterattack that erases all progress. 

President Tebboune himself has shown ambiguity in his stance. After more conciliatory statements, he recently rekindled tensions with comments such as the one he made about the imprisoned writer Boualem Sansal. 

This incoherence can be explained by the coexistence of two visions within the regime: one favourable to diplomatic pragmatism and the other anchored in ideological and nationalist confrontation. As Al-Arab points out, Tebboune is said to be receiving pressure or contradictory analyses, which lead him to change his tone according to the moment and internal circumstances. 

Furthermore, the current escalation could have deeper effects than simple diplomatic friction. A climate of mistrust could envelop all bilateral relations: from energy cooperation to private investment. French companies, and European companies in general, could reconsider their presence in Algeria in the face of a lack of predictability and institutional stability. 

Algeria's image as a reliable partner, especially in the supply of gas in a context of energy crisis in Europe, would also be damaged.