Yemen: Does the bombing of Mukalla port herald a return to the scenario of 2015?

The port of Mukalla is not only a local service infrastructure, but also represents an economic and livelihood artery for millions of inhabitants of Hadramaut and southern Yemen, playing a key role in the supply of food and fuel in a country that is heavily dependent on southern ports. The attack took place in a densely populated residential area and near large fuel tanks, raising serious concerns about the possibility of large-scale explosions or fires that could cause significant human casualties and long-term environmental pollution affecting the coast and marine resources.

A moment of extreme sensitivity

This event comes at a time of extreme political and security sensitivity. The southern provinces are experiencing a broad popular movement demanding the proclamation of an independent state in the north controlled by the Houthis, in parallel with security operations carried out by southern forces against terrorist organizations in the Hadramaut Valley, Abyan, and Al Mahra. According to international observers, these operations are part of efforts to contain extremist groups and prevent them from exploiting security gaps in areas close to international shipping lanes.

The bombing coincided with controversial decisions announced by the president of the Presidential Leadership Council, based in the Saudi capital, which included the declaration of a state of emergency and the use of harsh political and security measures against the eight members of the Council. Southerners viewed these measures as a declaration of war against them. The decisions were publicly rejected by four members of the Council, who said they lacked constitutional and legal basis and warned of the risks of unilateral decisions that could drag Yemen into new clashes and undermine what remains of confidence at the national, regional, and international levels.

The statement issued by these members emphasized that the United Arab Emirates was a key partner in the fight against the Houthis and terrorist organizations, and that it played a decisive role in liberating large areas, protecting international navigation, and building security capabilities that prevented the country from falling into widespread chaos. They considered that attempting to demonize or ignore this role only benefits Yemen's enemies and opens the door to further division and instability.

Regional reactions and old fears

On the broader political front, the bombing provoked mixed reactions, notably the Muslim Brotherhood's favorable reception of the Saudi move, in a stance that rekindled memories in the south of the events of the 1994 war, when religious rhetoric was used to justify violence against the south after the collapse of the voluntary unity agreement. That war—and what accompanied it in terms of the mobilization of Islamist fighters from the so-called “Arab Afghans” and the fall of thousands of victims—remains very much alive in the collective consciousness of the south, making any similar alignment today a source of deep concern.

Likewise, accounts linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and the Houthis celebrated the recent measures on social media, leading analysts to assert that the real beneficiaries of the weakening of regional associations in Yemen are forces opposed to stability, particularly armed groups and extremist organizations.

Mukalla and the memory of 2015

The city of Mukalla has special symbolism in this context. In 2015, Al Qaeda seized the city and exploited its oil and financial facilities to obtain substantial resources that allowed it to strengthen its influence. This phase did not end until 2016, following a military operation that put an end to the group's presence and returned Hadramaut to a path of greater security stability.

Hadramaut is Yemen's largest oil-producing province, with numerous blocks, fields, and vital infrastructure, as well as its strategic geographical location facing the Arabian Sea and its proximity to key maritime routes. Experts believe that any sustained disruption to security in this province could create an environment conducive to the return of terrorist organizations, especially given the rugged geography of the Hadramaut Valley and the intertwining of tribal and political interests.

International and economic dimensions

The repercussions of what happened in Mukalla transcend the local sphere. The maritime corridor stretching from the Arabian Sea, through the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the Suez Canal, is one of the main arteries of world trade and energy transport. Any escalation of security in this area could directly affect maritime insurance prices, transport costs, and global supply chains at a time when markets are already suffering from growing geopolitical tensions.

Recent reports point to the discovery of illegal oil refining and smuggling operations in areas of Hadramaut, along with related judicial investigations, as further evidence of the magnitude of the challenges linked to governance and corruption, and of the importance of the province as a simultaneous hub of economic and security conflict.

The south and its steadfastness on its chosen path

Faced with this complex situation, southerners continue to reaffirm their commitment to their political cause, considering that their demands are not separate from the search for stability and security, but arise from a long history of exclusion and conflict. The continuous calls for mass mobilizations and political organization in Aden, Lahij, and other areas show that the southern movement sees the current moment as a decisive stage in defining its future.

An open question for the international community

The bombing of the port of Mukalla is no longer an isolated military event but has become an indicator that raises fundamental questions for the international community: Is Yemen gradually sliding back into the conditions of 2015, with all that they entailed in terms of security collapse, the spread of extremism, and humanitarian catastrophe? Or is there an opportunity to change course, protect civilian infrastructure, and preserve the partnerships that have proven effective in combating terrorism and protecting international shipping?

The answer to this question will not only determine Yemen's fate, but will also have an impact on regional security and the stability of the global economy at an extremely sensitive stage.