100 days of war in Ukraine

Putin is stepping on the gas with his war campaign.

The fall of Mariupol was the starting signal for the second phase of the war in Ukraine. In this new phase Putin's ambitions have been reduced, but his military capabilities have been focused in a much smarter and more effective way than when he attempted his 'express invasion' in late February.

The results of this new strategy are reflected in the map showing the territories occupied by Russia, which by seizing Mariupol has succeeded in establishing a corridor between Crimea-Kershon and the Dombass. This allows it to stock up on troops and weapons to carry out its offensive in the east of the country - and to avoid the pathetic images we saw at the beginning of the war, when Russian tanks ran out of fuel in the middle of their journey and logistics were conspicuous by their absence.

Moreover, it has abandoned the idea of "bagging" the whole of Dombas, and is now conquering city by city. The latest to fall was Severodonetsk, after two weeks of terrible siege, during which the incessant Russian bombardment did not even spare the civilian evacuation convoys.

The third leg Russia is relying on in this new phase of the war is its strategic aviation. It was largely absent during the first weeks of the conflict, when Ukraine was constantly asking the international community to close its airspace - unsuccessfully - fearing that Russian aircraft would cause a massacre of civilians in major cities.

During these first weeks it was all done by artillery fire. There were also occasional attacks with cruise missiles launched from Crimea, such as those that hit the Odessa refinery, or the International Peacekeeping Centre in Lviv, but the bulk of the fire during the offensives was artillery.

During May, however, air strikes multiplied, especially in the two Dombash provinces, and the neighbouring Kharkiv and Zaporiya provinces. Today, SU-35s and MI-24 helicopters fly over the airspace on a daily basis, although Ukrainian forces are trying hard to shoot down both these vehicles and the reconnaissance drones used by the Russians to mark targets.

In the latest military aid packages being sent by the US and European countries, along with M777 howitzers and ammunition, there are also IRIS-T systems (courtesy of Germany). This is the most modern air defence system that Ukraine will be able to use, and with it they hope to minimise the impact of Russian aircraft in the coming weeks.

The fall of Severodonetsk a few days ago was a major setback. The town had become another symbol of resistance in Dombas, and Ukrainian troops had defended it tooth and nail during almost two weeks of heavy siege. They held out until the very end, until the final urban fighting on 31 May in which much of the city fell. 

It was not the only recent loss. First Rubizhne, then Popasna. Now Liman and Sloviansk are the next targets. It is Putin's new strategy of going city by city, a strategy that is yielding results, albeit slowly.

Meanwhile, shelling continues in Kharkiv, and has also resumed in Chernigiv and the Sumy region, forcing the Ukrainian armed forces to have troops deployed at various points, and not being able to concentrate their full strike force to confront the Dombash.

"The enemy's main efforts are now focused on holding the lines of attack and slowing the Ukrainian advance, while securing supply routes, creating the right conditions for a major offensive," said Alexander Shtupun, spokesman for the General Staff, in one of his latest statements on the progress of hostilities. 

"In order to reduce the offensive potential of our troops, the enemy is constantly firing at the positions of the Defence Forces with cannon and rocket artillery at various points," he added.

North of the Dombas, in Kharkiv, they are now preparing for a new counteroffensive in the face of the invader's advances.  It is a turn they did not expect, after their victory in early May in the north of the oblast, where the Ukrainian army pushed Russian troops back to the border with Belgorod, liberating dozens of previously occupied villages in its wake.

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry trumpeted this victory, and the people of Kharkiv - the country's second largest city - began returning home in their thousands. Traffic jams on the access roads formed queues for miles, and train carriages were jammed with people arriving at the central station.

However, the shelling has not stopped. Neither in the now liberated northern villages of Dergachi, Slatino and Ruska Lozova, which have been reduced to rubble, nor in the capital, where people continue to die from the attacks, which have already damaged 25 per cent of the region's infrastructure. 

An officer of the Marsel Legion, which has been effectively defending Kharkiv since the first day of the invasion, explained to Atalayar the possible scenarios they now face: "Severodonetsk has fallen, and with it Lugansk has been practically conquered. If they take this province completely, the Russian army has two options afterwards: attack Mikolaiv to get to Odessa, or go for Kharkiv". 

"At the moment, there are 5,000 Russian troops on the ground in Kharkiv, and another 30,000 in the rear, stationed on the Belgorod border. This is a sign of what could happen in the coming weeks," he concluded.

Along with Kharkiv, Mikolaiv is another town that has been under bombardment since the first day of the war. And it is also another symbol of resistance, where they are holding back the advance of Russian troops overland towards Odessa. 

During the first month of fighting, they not only held back the Kremlin soldiers, but pushed them back. The fighting, which lasted for days in the vicinity of the airport, turned in favour of the Ukrainian troops, who pushed their enemy back as far as Kherson.

From there, the fighting continues today, and although it makes less headlines than Dombas, it is a very active front line where they are also fighting village by village. 

There are hardly any trenches here, the front lines are mobile and can be at a different point every day. But offensives and counter-offensives are constant on both sides. As a result, 90% of the civilian population of southern Mikolaiv has fled their homes. Villages have been decimated, and the destruction of infrastructure is also significant. 

At the end of March, when the diplomatic track was still being discussed as a short-term solution to the conflict, Putin announced - precisely at the talks table - that he was withdrawing his troops from the vicinity of Kiev and concentrating his military campaign on the Dombash region.

The Russian Defence Ministry then published a map showing eastern and southern Ukraine, from Kharkiv to Transnistria (Moldova), under the Russian flag. More than 20% of Ukrainian territory, including the sea outlet, was under the Russian flag.

Since then, diplomatic talks began to lose momentum, and the six sanctions packages against Russia cooled an already frosty atmosphere. And with Finland and Sweden's application for NATO membership, another step backwards was taken. 

With dialogue at a standstill, and with the two presidents, Zelenski and Putin, focusing all their efforts on the military campaign - much more concentrated than at the beginning, but also more intense - everything suggests that this war is going to drag on, and the summer months could be especially hard for Ukraine.