Africa and the current challenges (2)
Africa has been growing at rates of 5 to 9% for some 10 years now, but without poverty reduction.
In the Africa and the current challenges paper (1) we listed some of the challenges facing the African continent. In this second paper we focus on three more key issues for the region:
1. Africa's youth as a political, economic and social challenge.
2. Africa and its coexistence with environmental risks
3. Education as a launching pad for development
- Africa's youth as a political, economic and social challenge
"Youth and young people in Africa have become a political object insofar as they nourish hope or inspire pessimism" (Peatrik A.-M.M.).
(Peatrik A.-M. (2020) "Pour une anthropologie des jeunes en Afrique " Ateliers d'anthropologie, nº47)
Summary
The African labour force is young and is growing rapidly. According to the World Labour Organisation (ILO), in 2020, young people aged between 15 and 24 will represent at least a third (23.6%) of the world's working-age population, but more than a third (35%) in Africa. While the demographic weight of this age group is a potential resource for the continent, it is also a source of political instability, and its transformation into human capital is still a challenge.
"Africa must stop being a museum of poverty. Its people are determined to reverse this trend. The future of young Africans is not in Europe, their destiny is not to perish in the Mediterranean," said Akinwunmi Adesina, president of the African Development Bank. Invariably, Africa is exporting its future en masse.
1. Growth and poverty reduction
For some 10 years now, Africa has been growing at rates of between 5 and 9%, but without much effect on poverty reduction, which, according to various statistics, mainly affects young people and women. Bearing in mind that one of the expected effects of this growth is job creation, one could speak of jobless growth in this case II. While the young population (15-29 years) grew by 23% between 2005 and 2015 in Africa, the number of non-agricultural jobs did not increase by more than 5.6%, according to the ILO III. The direct impact of this is that young people are highly dependent on active adults. Compounding the situation by the COVID-19 health crisis and its impact on the contraction of growth in 2020 to 2% according to the World Bank, there is a further gap in access to employment. On the other hand, political speeches and the general rhetoric inviting young people to be more creative and innovative in order to fight unemployment are rarely accompanied by public initiatives, which is why young people are forced to remain forever young IV, with the consequent delay of the adult to start a family, to have a first decent job, to have a house etc. This puts them at the forefront of the political and social struggle for a more democratic and fairer political order. This impatience is precisely a major political challenge which, if not resolved, could lead to violent demonstrations and other Arab revolts (in this case in sub-Saharan Africa) because of the crisis of confidence among young people with regard to public power. Outgoing movements in Burkina Faso such as "Le Balai citoyen", a civil society youth movement that was an important actor in the fall of the Blaise Compaoré regime in 2014, and the "Filimbi" movement in the DRC are examples of rebellion and political struggle in sub-Saharan Africa. Now young people have become aware of the digital as a tool for political struggle and they know how to use Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, etc. platforms as a means of calling for and disseminating political information and calls for social mobilisation. They are instruments that in their hands are quite effective V.
2. What paths are these young Africans choosing to escape from the state of fragility in which they find themselves?
Wage employment represents between 10% and 15% of total employment in sub-Saharan Africa, but these percentages fall to 7% when we talk about young people.
Given the lack of response from many of their governments, these young people opt for different paths...
One of them is the informal sector, which in an urban environment provides jobs and income for young people. The ILO reveals that a high percentage of low-skilled young people enter the labour market relatively early. They tend to move towards and remain in the informal economy, in contrast to those who enter at a slightly older age, with a better level of education.
It is, shall we say, an essential component of most sub-Saharan economies, where their contribution to GDP ranges from 25 to 65% and where they account for 30 to 90% of non-agricultural employment. International experience shows that the share of the informal economy decreases with increasing levels of development; however, in Africa, the informal economy remains the main source of employment.
Another would be the technological opportunity, which opens the door to creation and entry into the services sector thanks to the rapid spread of 4G and improved connectivity. High mobile penetration has increased from 28% to 55% between 2016 and 2020 in sub-Saharan Africa and from 46% to 65% in North Africa and the Middle East in the same period VI. The mobile industry in sub-Saharan Africa continues to play a crucial role in the response to COVID-19. Mobile networks have become a lifeline for society during the pandemic, allowing people and businesses to stay connected and continue to work, learn and do other activities despite social constraints. The significant increase in the adoption and use of mobile services since the beginning of the pandemic, in particular mobile data, phones, and mobile money, reflects the usefulness of mobile technology in difficult times.
A third pathway is emigration; it is hard not to admit that African youth associate employment opportunities and success with a rural exodus to the cities, even if this does not guarantee better labour market insertion. Migratory processes change in scale and place, since for some young people, whether urban or rural, the possibilities of a dreamed-of social future lie across the seas, and the emigration of a few, to Europe, invites the next ones to do the same VII.
A fourth way is to become someone through violent radicalisation.
Africa is considered to be the youngest continent, with the largest number of children and young people of any continent. The young population represents advantages for Africa's economic development, due to its vitality and improved work capacity, but it can also lead to increased demand for development and increased security risks. States must translate this potential meaningfully into national assets: political, social and economic.
Involvement in war provides idle youth with a window of opportunity for self-fulfilment. Engagement in armed conflict gives them access to resources that were forbidden to them, while taking up arms would lift them out of social invisibility and offer them a new, unanticipated social status viii.
3. Conclusion
In the cities as well as in the countryside, the impatience of young people is a reality. They show imagination and are capable of demonstrating innovation and a desire for emancipation by becoming agents of social change. But the absence of political responses to their desires sometimes makes them radical and means that the dialogue of the deaf between these young people and the public authorities does not last long. For all this to happen, it is necessary to reform education systems at the grassroots level and to work on public policies that take African youth into account.
- Africa lives with environmental risks
The drought in Somalia has left more than two million people facing severe food and water shortages. Somalia is on the frontline of climate change and has experienced more than 30 climate-related hazards since 1990, including 12 droughts and 19 floods.
Summary
Overall, the 20th century has seen an increase of 0.6°C (1.1°F) in surface measurement ix. The earth is warmer now than it was a century ago, but it is not clear why. Climate change has always existed and will continue to exist. Climate has always changed, let alone weather. So talking about climate change is a no-brainer, and it does not evolve in the same way in all parts of the world. Africa is one of them.
Africa and climate, environmental and economic consequences
Africa is experiencing the greatest climate impacts of any region in the world. From more frequent and prolonged heat waves to droughts, floods and cyclones, these phenomena have already affected millions of Africans and threatened their livelihoods.
These disruptions and the declining viability of arable land are reshaping Africa's security landscape. The threats of land pressure and illegal logging in the Congo Basin, the world's second largest carbon sink, are particularly worrying.
Africa is warming, but not for the first time. Why is this warming episode happening now?
Once again, the long term, and in this case the very long term, allows us to put the facts in perspective in order to step back from contemporary reactions. Palaeoclimatology x, tropical climatology, archaeology and history recognise that, in the past, and over hundreds of thousands of years, the African climate has changed profoundly, sometimes with considerable variations. Tropical climatologists have shown that the current warming is both a natural phenomenon - although the suicidal demography of the Sahel dramatically worsens desertification - and a long-term one that is part of a cycle that began 5,000 years ago, again without human responsibility. Archaeologists teach us that, over the last fifteen millennia, it was these climatic changes that, from north to south and east to west, conditioned the settlement of African populations. The most recent droughts are aggravated by demographic pressure. Overgrazing, deforestation, the destruction of tamarisk trees which are transformed into firewood to supply the bakers' ovens to feed a suicidal demographic population, and the abandonment of the traditional triennial rotations. All this is leading to soil depletion, a phenomenon that is accelerating today. The problem is that observers confuse origin and influence, two scientifically different notions. Moreover, they proceed by assertions, an approach that comes from belief and sometimes even totalitarianism, not from the domain of evidence. In Africa, the climate has not ceased to change.
What Africa does need, as described by Michel Griffon xi, is a double green revolution: an economic one, which would allow it to respond to the pressure of demand by improving productivity, and an ecological one, which would ensure improved quality and environmental protection. An estimated 500,000 km2 of land is being degraded by soil erosion, salinisation, pollution and deforestation. Vulnerable African societies and populations have a fragile resilience to environmental shocks. According to some statistics, the continent is responsible for 4% of international greenhouse gas emissions, but at the same time it is also the one that suffers most acutely from global warming, especially along the coasts. On the African side of the Atlantic, the water (still according to estimates) rises by 1 to 6 mm per year in some places, with peaks mainly on the western shores (from Nouakchott to Lagos, the sea level on the coasts rises by 1 to 5 metres per year, damaging the port cities which represent 42% of the West African economy). The same is true of Maputo and Dar es Salaam, while the opposite is true of Cape Town, where the lack of water exacerbates the region's hardship due to the drying up of the water table.
Africa, however, is very varied and has virtually all the world's climates with the exception of the northern parts. Thanks to its equatorial rainforest, Central Africa has the second largest carbon sink on the planet after the Amazon, with considerable water reserves. On the other hand, the Sahel regions are suffering the effects of desertification and are seeing a growing number of climate refugees on their land. Oil-producing Nigeria and Angola are the continent's main polluters.
The African continent is low in pollution, but is paying a high price for the climate crisis XII. Despite having 17% of the world's population, Africa accounts for only 3% of cumulative global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet Africa is disproportionately affected by climate change and extreme weather events, with severe economic, social and environmental consequences for its people.
Take agriculture, for example, which accounts for 65% of employment and 75% of internal trade in Africa. I will not go into the necessary transformation of agriculture, as this would be the subject of another paper, but the influence of climate, as is and has always been the case, has an impact on this primary sector, especially in Africa. Agricultural production and food security could be compromised as approximately 85% of its production is rain-fed and therefore vulnerable to climate changes and their effects.
Climate changes, such as rising temperatures and reduced water supplies, as well as loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems, have an impact on agriculture. According to the renowned international scientific journal Science, southern Africa and southern Asia will be the two regions of the world whose agricultural production will be most affected by climate and its variations in 2030. For example, wheat varieties grow well at temperatures between 15 and 20°C, but the average annual temperature in sub-Saharan Africa now exceeds this range during the growing season. If these climate trends continue, wheat production could fall by 10-20% by 2030 compared to yields in 1998-2002.
Food insecurity could also be a source of social instability, as it has been in the past. Between 2007 and 2008, several countries experienced riots in response to soaring food commodity prices. In 2010, hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets of Mozambique to protest against a 25% increase in the price of wheat, caused by a global shortage partly attributable to forest fires that devastated crops in Russia after a period of extreme temperatures. The rise in the price of bread had led to violence, looting, fires and even deaths.
The question is therefore whether Africa's agricultural system is ready to meet this challenge.
Africa should produce 70% more food by 2050, provided it can respond to climate challenges in particular. Organic agriculture is one of the most promising ways for Africa to meet the challenges of the future. Although still marginal today, it is increasingly present on both local and export markets. Organic agriculture covers about 1.8 million hectares, i.e. only 0.2% of the continent's cultivated land XIII.
- Education as a launching pad for development
In 2022, more than a quarter of the African population is of school age. By 2035, these young people will be in the labour market. We must therefore invest now in the education of those who will hold the future of the continent in their hands tomorrow (Unesco. Five challenges for education in Africa 10/05/2022).
Education, a vector of survival and fulfilment, is the most effective investment in the fight against poverty, and contributes to the improvement of socio-economic development.
Unequal access to education, the polarisation of knowledge and a scientific divide are opposing concepts between developed/emerging countries and African countries. The latter, for various reasons (poverty, lack of resources, lack of funding, poor planning, etc.) are experiencing, among other things, a growing brain drain (30% of trained professionals work outside Africa). Half of Africans and about two thirds of women are illiterate. Education for all is a mirage that is receding the closer we think we are to it. Despite progress in school enrolment rates, more than 40 million African children are still out of school, with significant differences between boys and girls. For example, 60% of young people between 15 and 17 years of age are still not in school.
If we add to all this other adverse factors, such as the energy shortage and the lack of electrification, which in many areas means that the new generations have to read under street lamps and the halo of solar lamps, the road becomes more difficult.
With 3 out of 5 people under the age of 25 and 50% of the population aged between 3 and 24, Africa is the youngest continent on earth. In 2020 nearly 800 million people were under the age of 25 and some 677 million were aged between 3 and 24. In addition to its youth, Africa's population is also growing rapidly. Since 2000, the number of people aged 3-24 has increased by 58 per cent, and is estimated to increase by a further 22 per cent in the next ten years.
The large and rapidly growing number of young people in Africa represents both a risk and an opportunity. The pressure on education and training systems is considerable. African countries, which already have some of the weakest school attendance rates and learning outcomes in the world, also face a growing demand for education. As we have seen, in Africa, levels of inequality in access to education are among the highest in the world. We must also ensure that, across the continent, students follow a course that is adapted to their individual abilities and that takes into account external constraints (family inequalities, remoteness, destitution and mediocre teaching). In these situations, it is necessary to constantly strive to make the school the place of equal opportunities, and to commit human and material resources, in order to provide specific monitoring of the pupil until the assimilation of the fundamentals, together with a knowledge check.
Access to education must be possible in a hybrid model that combines face-to-face and distance learning, thanks to digital technology. In this way, the African learner will be able to take advantage of the best of education, especially with MOOCs. These are "Massive Open Online Courses" that allow everyone to take advantage of free online lessons and courses from universities and schools around the world. But this implies simplified access to the internet and a smartphone, already widespread on the African continent.
Literacy levels
The literacy and/or education levels of parents or caregivers determine children's schooling and schooling and learning trajectories. Parental illiteracy is one of the barriers to children's schooling, especially among the most marginalised groups. It is also one of the factors preventing parental support to improve the quality of learning. It has been observed in various contexts around the world that the education of the head of household or parents/caregivers positively influences a child's schooling.
Most studies in sub-Saharan Africa show that the higher the level of education of the household head, the higher the education of the child. In short, the higher the level of education of the household head or parents/caregivers, the more likely the child is to be in school.
Education should be a top priority for governments.
On average, African governments spend 4.1% of their GDP on education, just above the minimum benchmark, and slightly less than the global average (4.3%). At the level of continent regions, the percentage varies from 3.1% in Central Africa to 5.9% in Southern Africa. However, national data reveal large disparities Public expenditure as a percentage of GDP varies from 1% in the Central African Republic to 8% in Sierra Leone. In more than half of African countries, it is less than 4 per cent.
According to AfDB estimates, African countries spend on average 25% as much per primary school pupil as Latin American countries and 5% as much as Asian countries. For secondary school pupils, Africa spends less than half as much per pupil as Latin America and 5% as much as Asia. Two factors influence the volume of public spending on education as a percentage of GDP: the capacity of governments to mobilise domestic resources and the budgetary priority given by governments to the education sectorxiv.
____________________________________
References
i La selección de dichos desafíos es personal, existen otros desafíos que podrían mencionarse pues de Africa hay mucho que contar. Africa en si misma es una asignatura que merece integrarse en cualquier licenciatura de economía pues recoge todos los aspectos económicos, políticos y sociales que uno pueda nombrar.
ii BAfD (2018) Perspectives économiques en Afrique 2018.Croissance, emploi et pauvreté en Afrique 2020, Abidjan
iii OIT Organización internacional del trabajo
iv Antoine P. (2001) ¿Contraints de rester jeunes ?
v En Africa del Sur con discusiones en Facebook que sirvieron para que los dos principales partidos políticos, así como sus militantes ANC y DA participasen en un foro de discusión, así como de información y formación de opinión. (Steenkamp y Hyde-Clarke,2014)
vi https://www.gsma.com/mobileeconomy/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/GSMA_ME_SSA_2021
vii https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/Africa-Migration-Report-FR.pdf. Rapport sur la migration en Afrique. Remettre en question le récit. Union Africaine et ONU migration.
Africa y el suicidio demográfico. Rafael Gomez-Jordana Moya
viii Collier P.2000 Economic causes of civil conflict and their implications for policy, World bank paper, nº1
ix La medición de temperatura en superficie lleva aparejada un sesgo al alza. Los puntos de toma de temperatura rodeados de urbanización llevan consigo un notable calentamiento del entorno y por tanto de las cifras registradas y ello provoca una clara distorsión de los datos. J.R.Ferrandis: Crimen de estado
x La paleoclimatología aborda el estudio del cambio climático con una dimensión temporal mayor a la que los instrumentos de medición meteorológica convencionales registran comúnmente. A través de diferentes disciplinas y mediante diferentes aproximaciones, es capaz de realizar una reconstrucción del clima en el pasado.
xi Michel Griffon , nacido el 31 de octubre de 1948 en Bourges , es un agrónomo francés que ha contribuido en gran medida a la creación de los conceptos de la doble revolución verde y la intensificación ecológica .
xii https://www.dw.com/fr/changement-climatique-quels-enjeux-pour-lafrique/av-61101485
xiii Libérer le potentiel agrícole. Philippe Hugon (géopolitique de l’Afrique)
xiv Calculos de banco Africano de Desarrollo. Banque africaine de développement, Perspectives
Économiques en Afrique 2020, p. 10.
Bibliografía
• Agencia Francesa de Desarrollo: La economía africana 2021
• Géopolitique de L’Afrique : Philippe Hugon et Christophe Servant
• BAD 2018 Perspectives économique de l’Afrique Croissance, emploi et pauvreté en Afrique.
• OIT 2020 Rapport sur l’emploi en Afrique (Re.Afrique) Relever le défi de l’emploi des jeunes, Genève.
• La jeunesse africaine engagée pour la paix et la sécurité. Peter Biar Ajak (centre d’études stratégiques pour l’Afrique)
• Africa en transformación Carlos Lopes (capitulo 5: adecuarse al cambio climático)
• Geopolitique de l’Afrique. Philippe Hugon et Jean-Christophe Servant : Climat sur la ligne du front
• Jose-Ramon Ferrandis. Crimen de Estado
• Richard Munang es el Coordinador Regional para el Cambio Climático en la Oficina Regional para África del PNUMA. Para seguirlo en Twitter: @MTingem.
• Jesica Andrews es Especialista en Adaptación de Ecosistemas en la Oficina Regional para África del PNUMA.
• TRANSFORMER L’ÉDUCATION EN AFRIQUE. Un aperçu basé sur des données probantes et des recommandations pour des améliorations à long terme. Un rapport de l’UNICEF et de la Commission de l’Union africaine