Against all odds, Turkey remains Erdoganist
"If Erdogan wins, we're screwed," Mumtaz Murat, the association's project coordinator, who tracks all criminal cases in which Turkish journalists have been prosecuted for political reasons, told me a few days ago at the MSLA office in Istanbul. Throughout yesterday, 85 million Turks voted for their president and the composition of their parliament for the next five years. The elections were seen with hope, as the beginning of a change in the country that would put an end to Erdogan's rule that has lasted for more than twenty years.
At the beginning of the day, and during the previous days, everything predicted the victory of Erdogan's main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who leads a coalition of six heterogeneous parties with the Republican People's Party (CHP) at the head that united in order to put an end to the 'Strongman of Turkey'. And with the withdrawal of the candidacy of Muharrem Ince, leader of the third largest party, two days before the elections, the prognosis was even more favourable for the CHP-led coalition.
In this environment Burak Yildirim, who is running as the CHP candidate for Istanbul, was clear about his victory: "Turkey has important problems to solve due to the current economic crisis and the February earthquake. Erdogan's ability to generate solutions has been completely exhausted and he can no longer formulate policies even for the most trivial issues. The polarisation of Turkish society has reached its peak and has become a threat to social cohesion".
In an interview with the young candidate we analysed the political tendencies of the Turkish population, which have always leaned to the right, as he explains, "our society has a strong tendency to the right, and supporting left-wing rhetoric was not attractive to our voters during the Erdogan era. It was quite difficult to talk about policies such as social justice, gender equality, workers' rights, free and scientific education and a healthcare system where everyone can receive the same services. Although the CHP, to which I belong, defines itself as a centre-left party, it had to prioritise its universal left-wing values to win the support of voters. I believe that after Erdogan, we can reach out to voters as a stronger centre-left party.
Erdogan was a powerful dictator because of his control over the media, but that era is coming to an end. It is striking how Yildirim speaks in the past tense about Erdogan, but like almost the entire population.
These elections have some very important variables that, it was said, would decide the outcome. One of them was the six million new voters. That Z generation that has not lived anything other than Erdogan. This is what Ejden Kasal told me outside a polling station in Ankara. The young man, who came to vote with his mother and uncle, is 21 years old and this is the first time he has turned out to vote for the CHP in the hope "of a change".
"I believe there will be a significant consolidation in the future of the left in Turkey. Together with the resolution of the Kurdish question, I believe that all progressives will be able to unite under the same umbrella and achieve victory in all elections," Yildirim says.
Since Erogan came to power, what was until yesterday supposed to be the unbeatable Turkish leader, has carried out a series of reforms aimed at concentrating power in his figurehead. After the 2016 coup d'état, which was blamed on the Fethullah Gülen movement (an ultra-conservative movement, who ironically was Erdogan's ally) and the subsequent referendum in 2017, Erdogan managed to consolidate his hold on government by eliminating the figure of the prime minister, grouping the three powers in his person. In this way, he turned the Turkish regime into a presidentialist system.
"The priority is, of course, to put an end to Erdogan's rule. That is the biggest obstacle ahead of us. On the other hand, another main objective of the Alliance of Nations is to ensure that the different identities come together to rebuild Turkey. Our determination to solve all of Turkey's problems with all segments of society is very strong," says the CHP candidate. Kilicdaroglu has promised the reinstatement of the separation of powers, which the CHP, the Kemalist party, sees as a return to the principles of the Republic of Turkey, which celebrates its centenary this year. "The mechanisms and institutions of the new Turkey will be designed in such a way that they do not weaken each other. The separation of powers will be based on definitive provisions. Remnants of tutelage will disappear and power will not be centralised in any way. We are highly motivated to quickly bring Turkey into the category of democratic countries," Yildirim pledges.
However, the centralisation of power in his person has not been the only effect of what is known as the Erdogan era; the country's economic situation has only worsened. The value of the lira has reached historic lows, inflation has reached 50.5% according to official sources - a figure that rises to 112% if we resort to independent sources - giving rise to an eternal economic crisis in the country of Ottoman heritage. Other variables that, according to polls, were causing Erdogan to lose support. "It is about implementing a stable and predictable economic policy and attracting foreign investors. We intend to eliminate the effects of high inflation in our first year," added the CHP representative.
Most of the people who turned out to vote yesterday were concentrated in the southern part of the country, which was devastated by the earthquake that struck in February. Some 850,000 people had to flee their homes, many of them destroyed. This fact also made clear the inefficiency of the AKP government in its management. Murat ŞimŞek is a young man from Gaziantep, the area affected by the earthquake, and he tells how Erdogan "took days to come, and the media lied that he had been there". The young man is voting for Kilicdaroglu mainly because of this, because "when the earthquake happened [Kilicdaroglu] came and was with the people, and he was always smiling".
Kemal Kilicdaroglu has been dubbed the 'Turkish Gandhi' for his speech that focuses on legalistic and ethical aspects. As well as for his Indian leader's resemblance. This was initially seen as a liability; "Turkish leaders tend to be very aggressive and that's what the Turkish population is looking for. They see this as charisma", explains Anil Kemal Aktas, a political analyst, as we walk through the streets of Ankara on election day.
The queues of voters turned the polling stations upside down, with a very high turnout. The day ended with a turnout of 88%, and some polling stations even had to close half an hour later than the official closing time, as people were still queuing to vote.
Erdogan and his party have been aware of the difficulty they faced in these elections, and began to focus their election campaign on discrediting their main opponent, which they focused on trying to connect Kilicdaroglu with the PKK. The CHP is clear that "we will solve this issue by bringing all parties in parliament together. On the other hand, the PKK is a terrorist organisation and continues to attack our citizens. To find a solution to the Kurdish question, the PKK must cease its terrorist activities, disarm and surrender. There must be no leadership outside the parliament for a democratic solution," Yildirim explains, leaving the door open to the start of the peace process that was interrupted by Erdogan in 2017. In addition, other promises supporting this new understanding was the release of the leader of the pro-Kurdish HDP party, Selahattin Demirtaş, in prison on charges of PKK membership. A situation that even the Strasbourg Court has called for an end to. In this context, the HDP decided not to present a candidate, which implicitly supported Kilicdaroglu, something that also translated into a possible victory for the CHP.
By 5 p.m., polling stations closed, and according to a rule imposed until 9 p.m., the media and other sources were not allowed to reveal the vote count. A rule that was eventually suspended, as reported by the President of the Electoral Commission. In the evening, dozens of people were already crowded in front of the screens to follow the counting of the votes with the same enthusiasm as during the voting.
Ayşe Kavlci is 24 years old and from Konya, a city in central Anatolia. She voted for the CHP because for her "the government has been in power for more than twenty years and everything has been getting worse". Moreover, she is more concerned about her allies than the AKP. Erdogan's AKP is running in the elections with the BBP (Unity Party), the Yeniden Remah (Welfare Party) and the MHP (Nationalist Action Party) as allies, all of which are Islamist-leaning. These parties pledged their support for the current leader on the condition that they would not protect women and other social groups. Proof of this was the exit from the Istanbul Convention in 2021.
In the international arena, the opposition also proposed a return to the pro-European and pro-Western line, as Yildirim explains, "our goal of EU membership is still valid and we have declared in our government programme that we want to continue the membership process. We have also declared that we will take steps towards democratisation regardless of the EU accession process. We want to be among the contemporary and developed countries. We want to expand the rights and freedoms of our citizens and increase their welfare. We consider EU membership to be crucial for achieving these goals". It is an address that does catch the attention of young people since their passport ranks 34th in terms of passport strength.
Not only this, but other promises concerning the international arena flooded the CHP's pre-election speech because, according to the party's candidate, "if he [Erdogan] wins, there is a risk that Turkey will become a satellite state of Russia".
On an election day that was lived with excitement and hope from all over the country, even the CHP headquarters was preparing for a victory speech - the stage and the media were already set up by mid-morning. "This year the CHP has been very well organised, even the AKP is aware of this", Aktas explains as we stroll through the streets of the capital.
Since the rule banning the disclosure of results was repealed, the election was followed live across the country, and as it progressed, so did the disappointment. Anadolu was the government-linked news agency broadcasting the count. AKA, which is closer to the opposition, was also doing the same. And although, at first, the results were mixed between the two news agencies, by midnight the illusion was gone: Turkey is going to a second round on 28 May and Erdogan is in the lead (he won the election with 49% of the vote). "How can these idiots vote for Erdogan?" was shouted in a bar in Eskishir, a town between Istanbul and Ankara, while the victory speech of the, until now, unbeatable leader was being broadcast.
A result that has surprised everyone and that contrary to what was predicted - that the Kurds and the younger generation would decide the outcome - it is nationalism that has done so; the third in the electoral race, Sinan Oğan, leader of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), has taken 5% of the vote - he was predicted to get 1-2% support. Moreover, despite Erdogan's government's failures with regard to the economy and the management of the earthquake, it seems that he is still seen as the only possible solution for many people. The alliance with the Islamic parties has also played a major role in this result as it has brought together the entire conservative vote, which also includes part of the Kurdish population.
"Erdogan will not win the elections. There is no need to discuss that risk, believe me", Burak Yildirim told me when asked about the consequences of a possible Erdogan victory. I don't blame him, the outcome was not predicted. The second round remains to be seen. Now, the opposition has challenges to overcome in the two weeks between elections and, above all, to remain united. Mumtaz Murat did answer my question in a very clear way, "if Erdogan wins we are screwed because in Erdogan's Turkey there is no rule of law".