Egypt and Turkey maintain economic ties despite political differences

Turkey continues to move closer to Egypt with an eye on the Mediterranean, while Cairo keeps a close eye on Erdogan's relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long been clear about what he wants in terms of geopolitical strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Rapprochement with Egypt is one of the fundamental pillars of Turkey's move in the region, although he knows he must be careful as his relations with Cairo have always been marked by disagreements. However, at the moment, political disagreements between the two countries do not seem to be so important when the economic stakes are as high as they are.

The reasons for Erdogan's estrangement with Egypt are several and of great historical significance, but Ankara - always with an eye on Mediterranean gas - has tried to smooth over the disputes. One of the issues that has driven Turks and Egyptians apart in recent years is the situation surrounding Libya, as reflected in the second Berlin conference on Libya held on 23 June. Following this, Turkish foreign ministry spokesperson Tanju Bilgic stressed how important a good relationship between Turkey and Al-Sisi's presidency is for the stability of the region as 'Turkey is seeking to increase points of agreement on bilateral and regional issues and to develop a common understanding with Egypt'.

It is vital for both countries to maintain a good relationship in order to keep in place the trade agreements that make Ankara Cairo's largest trading partner. This is another aspect that Bilgic emphasised when talking about relations with Egypt: "We attach great importance to joint historical and cultural relations and contacts between our two peoples, as exemplified most recently by the establishment of a friendship group between the two countries in the Turkish parliament". According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics, trade between the two countries reached $4.675 billion - almost 4 billion euros - last year.

And the economic relationship between Erdogan's and Al-Sisi's has even greater expectations than they have already built. In an interview with Anadolu Agency on 7 April, the head of the Turkish-Egyptian Businessmen's Association, Attila Atasfin, expressed Turkey's readiness to increase the volume of trade between the two countries fourfold. The figure for such an increase would be in the region of $5 billion and would seek to alleviate the losses accumulated by the economies of both countries in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, financial relations are not the only issue that continues to be discussed between the two countries - far from it. Turkey's relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood is one of the factors that have always marked relations between the two countries. It is important to note that it was precisely the coup against Mohamed Morsi - once a member and leader of the Muslim Brotherhood - that caused Ankara to sever all diplomatic ties with the country currently led by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Egypt is now pursuing a tough policy against the Brotherhood's leaders, executing many of its members in recent weeks on the basis of less than enlightening sentences.

Although Turkey has called for a halt to these executions, the reality is that Ankara is treading carefully, knowing that any false move could have dire consequences for its trade agreements with Egypt. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has already sent a message that pointed to Turkish interference in Egyptian politics: "It is important to observe the rules of international law not to interfere in internal affairs and not to make the territories a station and a springboard for hostile elements targeting the population of another country. If this is a stable issue, this is considered a positive development".

Already in March, Turkey announced the resumption of diplomatic contacts with Egypt, a significant step after eight years without any meetings. The Turkish authorities also requested that Egyptian opposition media operating on Turkish soil, including those affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, soften their tone towards the Egyptian regime. Nor is it any surprise that Erdogan's government would indicate what can and cannot be discussed, as freedom of expression has never been a banner in Turkey since the president's arrival.

Two months after the announcement of the resumption of contacts, a meeting between representatives of the two countries took place for the first time since 2013. On this occasion, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was unable to take the meeting back home, and a Turkish delegation led by Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal was tasked with holding exploratory talks in Cairo in a meeting with Egyptian officials led by Deputy Foreign Minister Hamdi Sanad Loza. At the time, the talks were touch-and-go with no concrete or urgent issues on the table, but both were clear that the prevalence of the two sides' economic relations is the ultimate and overriding objective.

Hassan Haridy, former assistant foreign minister, told Al-Monitor how important it is, especially for Turkey, to not only maintain but also expand trade ties with Egypt. The country led by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is one of the most important countries in the region. Its strategic geopolitical position makes it a key player in both the Middle East and Africa, a factor that Ankara wants to make the most of. Moreover, the ease of communication between the two countries is another aspect that favours interaction, despite the fact that, as Haridy said, the situation in Libya is largely conditioning the talks.

As was expressed at the Berlin conference, the presence of Turkish forces in Tripoli represents a threat to Egyptian national security. Not only that, but the withdrawal of all foreign forces and mercenaries from the region is a necessity that must be demanded as it is based solely on compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 2510. It is precisely these issues that are blocking possible progress, which, although both sides intend to make, neither is willing to give in to the need for progress, at least for the time being.

According to Bashir Abdel-Fattah, a researcher who focuses on Turkish affairs at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, he believes that even listening to statements by Turkish officials and their apparent willingness to resume talks, they have done nothing to genuinely improve ties between Ankara and Cairo. Moreover, he believes that Erdogan's initiative to force a softening of the tone of the Egyptian opposition media in Turkey is far from sufficient.

He even ventures to say that as long as Erdogan is at the helm of the Turkish government, hopes for real improvement are minimal: "I do not expect a breakthrough in political relations between Egypt and Turkey while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in office, but we could witness a rapprochement after his departure with regard to several files, including Libya, Syria and Iraq". This does not detract from the fact that established economic relations will continue regardless of the political discrepancies that separate the Turks and Egyptians, but it does pose a barrier to sitting down to renegotiate and expand the trade ties that Erdogan's government so desperately wants.

Another important conditioning factor in the relationship between two of the Middle East's largest economies is the ties that continue to bind Erdogan's historic allies, the Muslim Brotherhood, albeit increasingly tenuous. This alliance, which led to the severing of diplomatic relations in 2013, is the one that now, eight years later, continues to generate mistrust within the Egyptian executive.

It should also be borne in mind that the Muslim Brotherhood is not at its best after the ongoing rift with Ankara. Ibrahim Munir, acting head of the Muslim Brotherhood's Higher Administrative Committee, is very unhappy with the poor functioning of the administrative bureau and the Shura Council in Turkey, according to Arabi21. The same media outlet reported that he has dissolved the administrative bureau in Turkey and postponed the elections that were scheduled for this July.

As the Muslim Brotherhood seeks to carry out a major rebuilding of its infrastructure and Egypt continues to execute many of the organisation's leaders, Turkey finds itself in the middle of this chaos and, as has become Erdogan's custom, trying to play both sides of the game. However, Erdogan's preferences are clear and his sights are set on the Mediterranean, so the normal course of action would be to continue the line he has been taking in recent months and try to convince Al-Sisi that his ties with the Muslim Brotherhood are now practically non-existent, even if this is not the case - it would not be the first time Turkey has acted in this way.

Prioritising has to be the hardest thing for the Turks to do, and it is this lack of decisiveness that could cause the long-laid plan to collapse. Maintaining their close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood is something they assumed from the outset would not happen. On the other hand, there has always been - and still is - the hope of maintaining part of the alliance that has helped Recep Tayyip Erdogan for so many years at the helm of the Turkish government.

Despite being an organisation intimately linked to terrorist activity, Ankara has had no problem in showing itself to be one of their biggest supporters, as they demonstrated in their relations with Egypt. What Cairo is not willing to do is to give the Turks a free hand while they lead a harsh crackdown on the historic Muslim Brotherhood leaders. It remains to be seen whether the political discrepancies will set off alarm bells in the midst of the progress of the negotiations, something that does not seem likely to happen right now as it is seen as a very important opportunity by both countries.

"It is quite natural that Cairo is Ankara's largest trading partner on the African continent, as it is a key gateway to Africa, especially considering that trade between the two countries has not been hampered by the political tension that plagues their relations due to their commitment to long-term bilateral agreements," argued Adel Amer, an economic expert and director of the Egyptian Centre for Political and Social Studies. Indeed, without such long-term agreements, it is likely that the ties between the two countries would have been greatly weakened.

Amer himself believes that Ankara is making an effort to improve diplomatic relations with Egypt. The impression from the outside is that this is indeed the case, but for a leader with Erdogan's track record, caution is in short supply and the mistrust that still exists in Cairo, despite his efforts, is understandable. A definitive break with the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to be the final step towards the creation - this time - of a strong Turkish-Egyptian alliance. For the time being, however, a complete abandonment of relations between Turkey and the terrorist organisation seems closer to fiction than to the near future.