Mapping a failed invasion
The sun had not yet risen in Ukraine when the Russian president in Moscow had already announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine's eastern Donbas in an angry and furious speech with a fiery message based on protecting the residents of the Donbas region, the most pro-Russian influenced territory, from accusations of genocide in order to "denazify Ukraine".
- Start of the conflict
- Chronology of the war
- Russia, the International Criminal Court and NATO
- The numbers of the war and the Ukrainian exodus
- International consequences
- The speech that changed history
Two years later, however, on the front line, the EU has offered little movement and support to Ukraine, and the US is beginning to panic as Kiev redoubles its efforts to keep aid flowing. Since the Donetsk and Luhansk republics were officially recognised, it was only a matter of time before Russian troops entered Ukraine.
Start of the conflict
The start of a war, in the purest German Blitzkrieg style, was met with the tenacity of the Ukrainian people who, against all odds, withstood the Russian attacks throughout, demonstrating the shortcomings of the Russian army.
Although the invasion began in 2022, it was in 2014 with the Russian incursion into the Crimean peninsula that the war bells began to ring. As early as 2020, the Kremlin had issued a presidential decree clarifying for the first time Russia's nuclear doctrine and setting out a number of assumptions about its willingness to use nuclear weapons.
Given Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's rhetoric, one of the main pillars of Vladimir Putin's plan was to recognise the independence of the two separatist regions and create a 'legal framework' that would allow the Donbas leadership to request military support from Moscow, as was done in Georgia in 2008.
Chronology of the war
The first year of the war is summarised by the failure of the seizure of Kiev, the Kharkov offensive, the seizure of the Zaporilla power station, the liberation of Kherson, the fall of Bakhmut, Mariupol and Odessa, the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the hope after recovering Robotine, the stalemate of the war and the battles in the Black Sea.
The Battle of Bakhmut
In 2023 Moscow burned all its bridges in the battle for Bakhmut, which has so far been the heaviest battle of the war. More than 100,000 casualties were counted on the Russian side. The heavy losses suffered by Russian and Wagner troops at Bajmut can be explained by the "infantry drop" tactics used by the Russian command.
The operation, led by Wagner's former boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, was dubbed "Bakhmut Meat Grinder" and involved dropping fighter aircraft in succession to identify weak points in the Ukrainian defences.
The Kakhovka disaster
On 6 June 2023, the Kakhovka dam burst into the Dnieper River, submerging 120 square kilometres of land in the first hour. The destruction of the infrastructure forced tens of thousands of people to evacuate nearby.
There are many factors that raise suspicions of Russian involvement in the dam collapse, but there is nothing to draw a firm conclusion about Russian responsibility. By flooding one of the areas considered part of Kiev's offensive plans, Moscow could be trying to thwart Ukraine's plans.
Nord Stream sabotage
On 26 September 2022, an explosion occurred near the Danish islands and off the coast of Sweden, when three of the four lines of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines were crossing the Baltic Sea. It was the culmination of the war in Ukraine, with Russia invading its western neighbour.
According to Russia's Gazprom, approximately 800 million cubic metres of gas leaked. The explosion occurred a day before Poland and Norway opened a new gas pipeline, the Baltic Pipeline. Russia accused European countries of protecting those responsible for the destruction of Nord Stream, while the international community accused Russia of a false flag attack.
Russia, the International Criminal Court and NATO
Against all odds, Vladimir Putin, in order to justify his actions, played the victim and claimed that Russia was not in danger. His political discourse sought to keep Europe and NATO members between a rock and a hard place in order to prevent Russian interference in Ukraine as much as possible.
While the Russian military, under the command of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, continued to commit human rights violations and war crimes, President Vladimir Putin was not found guilty by the International Court of Justice in The Hague, with a firm sentence of an international arrest warrant, until 17 March.
Meanwhile, all Western countries, without exception, condemned Moscow's actions in a clear and forceful manner, stating that they were at war with Russia, despite the fact that Ukraine was not, and is not today, a member of NATO.
Sweden and Finland end historic neutrality
For decades, Sweden and Finland have remained neutral in the hidden rivalry between the two political blocs represented by Washington and Moscow. The Swedish and Finnish ambassadors to NATO presented their formal applications to join the alliance at a ceremony in Brussels.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called it a "historic step". "If NATO expansion were to become a reality, it would bring dramatic changes to the international geopolitical situation, with far-reaching consequences," he added.
The numbers of the war and the Ukrainian exodus
Two years later, on the front line, the European Union has offered little movement and support to Ukraine, and the United States is beginning to panic as the country redoubles its efforts to keep aid flowing.
The first result of the war was a mass exodus of civilians westwards to the Old World. The first months of the war saw the largest influx of refugees in history.
In total, 28.6 million people crossed the Ukrainian border into Europe since 24 February 2022, and 20.7 million were registered in the other direction, according to the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
Two years after the invasion, UNHCR estimates that there are more than 6.4 million Ukrainian refugees worldwide, six of them in European countries.
International consequences
One year on, the war in Ukraine changed the world in a way that no one could have foreseen. Beyond the front lines, the ripple effects of the Russian invasion transformed lives and destabilised the economy. Inflation was the main consequence, causing major headaches for the major EU economies.
Food
Because of the importance of Russia and Ukraine as exporters of food, including wheat, the war drove grain prices to record levels. The United Nations has warned that millions of people are at risk of starvation, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.
Moscow and Kiev agreed to release millions of tonnes of grain trapped in Ukrainian Black Sea ports due to Russia's de facto naval blockade. Moscow temporarily suspended its participation in the deal, but the agreement has remained largely intact.
Energy
The war triggered the world's worst energy crisis since the 1970s. Energy prices have risen in many parts of the world as countries cut back or stopped buying fossil fuels from Russia. In Europe, gas prices have almost doubled in the first six months of the year and electricity prices have risen by almost 70%.
In another attempt to steer Moscow away from war profiteering, EU diplomats agreed in December to limit Russian oil sales. But as global supplies dried up, Russia stood firm. While the global economy is barely emerging from the pandemic, the energy crisis and slowing growth have led to rising inflation.
China
During the war, China did a good job of appealing for peace while avoiding criticism of its important partner, Russia. The Biden administration has watched closely and warned of signs that China might cross that line and provide direct military support to Russia.
EU Sanctions
The main objective of the sanctions was to undermine the Russian economy by increasing the military cost of the war to the Kremlin. These were based on three pillars: individual sanctions, massive sanctions on Russian entities and massive sanctions on exports, imports and the SWIFT transfer system. During the two years of the Russian invasion, 13 packages of measures have been adopted.
Individual sanctions were based on putting pressure on Russian political leaders, aristocracy and opinion leaders. All their assets and bank accounts, including those of Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, were seized and blocked. More than 1,900 people were sanctioned.
Economic sanctions mainly targeted the assets and reserves of the Russian Central Bank and the Sovereign Wealth Fund. Where the EU sanctions hit hardest was in the purchase of Russian debt by foreign investors and banks.
The real blow to the Russian economy was the restriction of Russian gas exports to Europe. Although they were able to continue selling gas to countries such as China and Belarus, the sanctions reduced revenues from the sale of natural resources by 50%.
The speech that changed history
Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky said he was Russia's main target and lamented little or no help from the West.
"I will stay in the capital. I was designated the number one target. Only we will protect our country. Who is willing to fight against us? No one is visible. Who is willing to guarantee Ukraine's NATO membership?
There is information that an enemy sabotage group entered Kiev. Therefore, we ask the residents to respect the curfew schedule carefully. I stayed here to help the work of the central government. They want to destroy Ukraine politically by removing the head of state. No one will force us to give up our freedom, independence or identity. We will not allow the enemy to advance. Please help the Ukrainians. If you don't help us, there will be war in your country".
Two years on, the war has no end in sight as Ukrainian hopes fade. However, unless there is a moral collapse on both sides, the towns and cities devastated in the past two years will continue to struggle in the years to come. Ukraine will still have the means to survive, but victory does not seem a possible scenario.