Rusia reanuda sus "juegos del hambre" y suspende el corredor para exportar grano desde Ucrania

A series of explosions in the early hours of Saturday morning in Sevastopol have once again stirred up the Kremlin's hornet's nest, which, in response, has unilaterally suspended the agreement allowing grain exports from Ukraine's Black Sea ports. 

According to Russia, Zelensky's army - aided by British intelligence - is responsible for the drone attack that damaged three Russian ships docked in Sevastopol Bay. According to Ukraine, the explosions were caused by the negligence of the crew of one of Putin's navy ships, who allegedly mishandled the rocket-launching systems.

As a result, countries in Europe - including Spain - Africa and the Middle East will no longer receive at least some Ukrainian grain. Although the quantities being shipped were less than half of what was imported before the war, this grain covered part of the demand and served to curb the escalation of world prices.

Now it is impossible to know how much grain will be exported and what routes it will take to reach the countries that are waiting for it in the midst of an energy and, in some cases, food crisis.  

RUSSIA'S LACK OF GIRTH

The Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure - on which grain shipments depend - is trying to divert attention from the responsibility for the attacks with a communiqué in which it urges Russia to reconsider its decision.

A spokeswoman for the ministry, speaking to Atalayar, argued that "this is not a matter for the Ministry of Infrastructure" in relation to the attacks. And to the question of whether exports would be halted until a new agreement was reached, she replied that "Ukraine has alternative logistical routes to continue shipments", without specifying further details.

Leaving aside the possible involvement of the Ukrainian military in the explosions, the statement accuses Russia of having very little restraint, considering that the Kremlin was the first to repeatedly attack Ukrainian positions in the Black Sea, and that this did not cause Zelensky's government to suspend the export agreement: 

"We would like to emphasise that the implementation of the 'Grain Initiative' in the Black Sea is humanitarian in nature. This is the reason why the Ukrainian side did not close the grain corridor, even after the Russian attacks on 23 July (the day after the signing of the Initiative), 23 September on the port of Odessa, and the recent attacks on the energy infrastructure, which forced the suspension of the activity of the port infrastructure.

From the first of August, when the first ship left the Ukrainian port of Odessa, until today, we managed to export more than 9 million tonnes of food, of which more than 5 million tonnes were shipped to countries in Africa and Asia. Under the UN World Food Programme, 190,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat were exported to needy countries, which are on the verge of famine.

At the same time, we should point out that Ukraine remains a reliable partner for the civilised world and is ready to continue collecting and shipping agricultural products to ensure global food security."

RUSSIA DELAYED EXPORTS A WEEK AGO

Indeed, after one of the attacks referred to in the infrastructure ministry statement, Russia claimed that no cargo ships had been damaged and that Odessa's ports remained perfectly legitimate targets in the course of the war. 

But beyond the military actions, the Ministry of Infrastructure had already warned a week ago that the Kremlin was putting obstacles in the way of exports. "Russia is artificially delaying the inspection of ships in the Bosporus, and this has caused a queue of more than 170 cargo ships, so that Ukrainian ports are forced to work at only 25-30 per cent of their capacity", they denounced.

Following Saturday's events, President Zelensky added that "Russia has no place in the G20 as long as it deliberately seeks to provoke famine". Kiev also accuses Putin of using nuclear blackmail, cold and now famine as weapons of war. 

"Putin is waging a hybrid war against Europe, taking Africa and Asia hostage, proving that negotiations with the Kremlin are a waste of time," the President's Office said. 

EXPORT CHRONOLOGY

Since the resumption of grain exports on 1 August, more than 400 cargo ships have reportedly left the three ports of Odessa province for European, African and Asian countries. In total, 9.1 million tonnes of agricultural products were reportedly shipped. 

The breakdown of the export agreement comes just as Ukraine had increased the volume of shipments. Last week alone, 335,000 tonnes of grain were shipped to Europe, more than 25,000 tonnes to Egypt, 30,000 tonnes to Tunisia and as much to Yemen.

The last six ships left the port of Odessa on Friday with another 180,000 tonnes of grain, while the bulk carrier BC CALLISTO was reported to have arrived in Algeria with a further 30,500 tonnes of food wheat that had left the port of Chornomorsk. This ship was one of those held in the Bosporus - for 14 days - awaiting inspection by the Joint Coordination Centre run by Russia.

The UN and Turkey had already expressed the need to increase the number of inspectors at the JCC because "the delay was affecting both food safety and traffic safety on the Bosphorus", as Yury Vaskov, Ukraine's deputy infrastructure minister, said last week.

Yesterday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba went a step further in the verbal escalation and called on all countries to demand that Russia "stop its hunger games and restart its obligations". 

UN SECURITY COUNCIL CONVENED

Ukrainian intelligence services have suggested that among the Russian ships damaged by the explosions in Sevastopol were the frigate Admiral Makarov - which carried Kalibr missiles and replaced the Moskva at the forefront of the Kremlin's flora - and the minesweeper Ivan Golubets.

Sevastopol is the most important city in Crimea, the peninsula that the Kremlin annexed in 2014 following the Maidan uprising. And after Saturday's explosions, Russia has paralysed all activities in its port and banned the broadcasting of any images or videos from the site. It has also summoned the UN Security Council to meet.  

The Russian Minister of Defence, Sergey Shoigu, has not hesitated to point out on his Telegram channel that "the preparation of this terrorist act and the training of the military personnel of the 73rd Special Maritime Operations Centre of Ukraine was carried out by British naval specialists". 

The Kremlin has also referred to the explosions in Sevastopol as a "massive attack" by Ukraine, using the same term that the international press used to refer to Russia's near-simultaneous shelling of some 20 Ukrainian cities on 10 October.  

On that occasion, there was also an attack on Russian territory, the authorship of which has not yet been elucidated: an explosion on the Kerch bridge, which links Crimea with Russia, and which was used as an excuse to attack the Ukrainian electrical infrastructure in an absolutely disproportionate manner.

POSSIBLE RETALIATION IN THE FORM OF FURTHER BOMBINGS

Against this background, Putin can be expected to strike back in the coming days. Perhaps against Kiev, perhaps against Odessa, perhaps against several cities at once. The fact is that in the face of the humiliation he is suffering on the battlefield - where Zelensky's army has already recaptured practically the entire province of Kharkiv, and is advancing steadily through Kherson - any argument is valid to punish Ukraine's civilian population.

The Russian army's systematic shelling of residential areas, markets, hospitals, schools, etc. has been constant since the beginning of the invasion. But the large-scale attacks it has been carrying out in recent weeks, which may leave Ukraine without electricity and heating on the eve of winter, need at least some justification in the eyes of the international community. Even if the international community has so far failed to give any strong response to the Kremlin's violations of international humanitarian law.

For the moment, in the city of Kharkiv and at the time of writing, the anti-aircraft alarms have gone off up to five times on Saturday evening. No shelling has taken place yet, but Ukrainian air defence is working harder than usual. We are in for a tense Sunday and perhaps a darker than usual Monday in the middle of the war.