The HCP forecasts economic growth of 3.8% for Morocco in 2025
Morocco may experience significant economic growth in 2025.
The High Commissioner for the Plan (HCP) forecasts economic growth of 3.8% for the North African country in 2025, following last year's estimate of a 3% boom.
The growth is related to the agricultural sector and work in other non-agricultural activities, as budgeted for 2025.
In 2024/2025, the crop year is expected to be influenced by better weather conditions, much more favourable than in the previous period, which generated a cereal production limited to 31.2 MQx due to a severe rainfall deficit.
Rainfall marked a good start to the season and the resumption of rainfall at the beginning of the year should improve crop production. On the other hand, livestock activities are expected to continue to face the impact of the drought and the challenge of rebuilding the national herd.
Marine fisheries are expected to increase by 6.5% in 2025, after an estimated 3.8% in 2024. The primary sector is expected to see an improvement of 4.2% this year. This is expected to contribute 0.4 points to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, following the negative contribution of 0.5 points last year.
Thus, agricultural value added is expected to increase to 4.1% this year, on the assumption of a low, below-average cereal production, following the 5% decline in 2024.
Non-agricultural activities
In 2024, non-agricultural activities recorded an increase of 3.8% in 2024 and are expected to increase by 3.6% in 2025. These activities are supported by the construction sector, mining activities, industrial activities and their continued dynamics. In addition, trade, tourism and transport activities also influence this increase.
Regarding industrial activity, which accounts for 59% of secondary value added on average between 2019 and 2023, it is expected to increase by 3.7% in 2025 after an expected improvement of 4% in 2024.
The chemical industries have seen a boost in activity due to rising external demand. In 2024 it experienced a rebound of 12.9%, compared to only 1.2% in 2023. This is due to the strengthening of the export chemical fertiliser industry, as it benefited from limited Chinese and Russian exports of phosphate fertilisers, while India and Brazil increased their demand. In 2025, these industries are expected to continue to grow, but more slowly, due to continued external demand for these products.
In addition, the transport equipment industries are expected to grow by 14.4% in 2024 due to the establishment of new equipment manufacturers and the expansion of equipment factories and automobile factories, which would have allowed an increase in production capacity. In addition, rising sales in assembly and electrical wiring interconnection systems would have supported the aeronautics industry.
These industries are expected to continue their dynamism in 2025 with a growth of 9.6% in order to benefit from foreign direct investments in the automotive sector. These investments should allow the introduction of new technologies and strengthen domestic production.
The textile industry is expected to continue to suffer from low competitiveness on the world market, due to the predominance of informal activities, dependence on European markets, as well as high energy costs and the weakness of its domestic textile sector. As a result, its value added would have experienced negative growth of 3% in 2024, before improving slightly by 1.7% this year.
On the other hand, the textile industry is expected to continue to suffer from low competitiveness in the global market, strong dependence on European markets and the dominance of informal activities, in a context of high energy costs and the weakness of the local upstream textile sector. As a result, its value added would have experienced a negative growth of 3% in 2024 before improving slightly by 1.7% in 2025.
On the other hand, the activity of the agri-food industry, which accounts for 27.5% of industrial value added on average between 2019 and 2023, is estimated to register a moderate increase of almost 1.3% in 2025, instead of the 0.9% estimated in 2024 and a decrease in 2023, due to the impact of agriculture.
Activities in the construction sector are expected to continue to grow in 2025, with a growth of 3.8% instead of the 4.2% estimated in 2024. This increase should be influenced by lower prices for construction materials and easing financing conditions, which would encourage investment by real estate developers. In addition, this could also benefit from the organisation of major sporting events.
In addition, mining activity, which is closely related to the chemical industry, would have recovered by 17.9% in 2024, generating a positive turnaround after two consecutive years of declines: 23% and 2.7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. This recovery represents the consolidation of crude phosphate production, driven by increased domestic demand from chemical fertiliser processing industries.
Related to the above, by 2025 the sector is expected to continue its strengthening with an increase of 5.9%, supported by the continued increase in commercial phosphate production.
Under these conditions, the secondary sector should reach a value added of 3.8% more in 2025, after the 5.1% estimated in 2024, thus contributing about 0.9 points to national economic growth instead of 1.2 points in 2024.
As for the tertiary sector, which is mainly oriented towards the domestic market, it is expected to continue to support economic growth in 2025, with an increase of 3.5%. This improvement could be attributed to the improvement in non-market services of 3.2% in 2025 and business activity, which accounts for 19% value added in the tertiary sector in the period 2019-2023.
In relation to business services, the evolution of business services is expected to be 3.8% this year, due to the recovery of activity in the secondary sector. Related to this, real estate activities are expected to improve by 2.2% in 2025, due to the recovery in construction.
Related to this, real estate activities are expected to improve by 2.2% in 2025, due to the recovery in construction.
The tourism sector is expected to see an improvement in its value added of 7.4% after a 23.5% boost in 2023 due to tourism receipts. As for the value added of this sector, it is expected to improve by 7.4% in 2025, instead of the 7.7% expected in 2024, following a 23.5% rebound in 2023. This is due to the organisation of international events and efforts to promote Morocco as a tourist destination.
In this context, and considering the expected increase in taxes and fees on net grant revenues, which will be 5% in 2025, after 5.7% in 2024, GDP is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2025, following an estimated increase of 3% in 2024. GDP growth is projected to increase from 4,5% in 2024 to 5,9% in 2025 implying an inflation, as measured by the implied GDP index, of 2,1% in 2025, compared to an expected 1,5% in 2024.