Water is running out in Iran
- Water collapse in Tehran and national climate crisis
- Decades of accumulated mistakes
- Social impact: migration, unemployment and protests
- Collapsed infrastructure and inadequate policies
- Tension with neighbouring countries and loss of regional influence
As Tehran faces water cuts of up to 48 hours and temperatures exceed 50°C in the south of the country, Iran is entering its fifth consecutive year of drought with 80% of its reservoirs practically empty.
Authorities warn that the capital could run out of water in a matter of weeks. Over-exploitation of aquifers, poor water management and a collapsed infrastructure have turned a climate crisis into a structural threat with social, economic and geopolitical effects that are already translating into internal migration, urban protests, regional tensions and loss of international influence.
Water collapse in Tehran and national climate crisis
Iran is experiencing its fifth consecutive year of severe drought, in the midst of one of the most extreme summers on record in the country. The Meteorological Organisation reported a 40% drop in rainfall over the last four months, compared to the long-term average. Some areas in the south recorded a heat index of 65°C, one of the highest values ever recorded in Iran's history. In Tehran, temperatures reached 41°C in July, and forecasts predict that they will continue to rise.
The consequences of this climate situation are reflected in the water storage and distribution system. According to the Ministry of Energy, at least 19 of the country's largest dams are less than 20% full, and 80% of reservoirs are almost completely empty. The Tehran Water Management Company has confirmed that reserves in the dams supplying the capital have reached their lowest level in a century.
The city, with more than 15 million inhabitants in its metropolitan area, faces water cuts of between 12 and 48 hours. The pressure is so low that water does not reach the upper floors of buildings. The population has had to resort to storage in tanks, bottles and jerry cans, and in many cases depends on tanker trucks. Some of these trucks have distributed non-potable water from the sea or contaminated sources.
In an attempt to curb energy consumption, which has also been affected by the drop in hydroelectric power generation, the government has declared additional holidays and temporarily closed public offices, factories and schools. However, these measures have been criticised for being symbolic. Experts and citizens consider them a way of avoiding addressing the structural causes of the shortage.
Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi said the country had entered a phase of ‘severe water stress’ and publicly apologised for the widespread cuts. ‘Several dams have completely dried up,’ he said, warning that normal water supplies would not be restored for at least two months, even if it rained.
For his part, President Masoud Pezeshkian said that ‘Tehran could run out of water in the coming weeks’ if urgent measures are not taken. He also pointed out that the forced displacement of part of the capital's population cannot be ruled out as an emergency measure if the reservoirs are completely emptied.
Decades of accumulated mistakes
Despite the climate challenges, many experts agree that the root of the current crisis is not only environmental but also structural. Over-exploitation of aquifers, a water policy focused on ineffective megaprojects and irrational water use in the agricultural sector have placed unsustainable pressure on available resources. Nearly 90% of the country's fresh water is used for agriculture, and much of it is wasted through inefficient irrigation methods that are not adapted to the current climate.
Illegal groundwater extraction has reached alarming levels. In Tehran, the water table is falling at a rate of 31 centimetres per year, causing land subsidence in several urban areas. This overexploitation, combined with a lack of urban and rural planning, has drained hundreds of wells and damaged entire ecosystems.
For years, the government has opted for interregional water transfer megaprojects, such as transferring water from the Caspian Sea or dams in northern provinces to Tehran. These projects have been widely questioned by environmentalists and experts, who claim that not only have they failed to solve the problem, but they have also transferred it to other regions. According to Benfsha Zahrai, an expert on water resources, these policies have caused ‘ecological disasters in Ramin and Mazandaran’ and led to ‘landslides and the drying up of entire cities in the north.’ Zahrai warned that Tehran is temporarily saving itself by ‘exporting its thirst’ to the rest of the country.
Institutional corruption also plays a role in exacerbating the crisis. Analysts denounce that key decisions on infrastructure and distribution have been made based on short-term political or economic criteria, benefiting powerful groups rather than responding to technical studies or environmental sustainability.
Social impact: migration, unemployment and protests
Water shortages have had devastating social consequences. In provinces such as Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchistan, and Fars, thousands of farmers have been forced to abandon their land because they cannot irrigate it, leading to mass migration to urban centres. According to official estimates, more than 70% of rural villages in Iran are at risk of depopulation due to water shortages. Between 2010 and 2018, 64% of internal migration in the country was directly attributed to water scarcity.
The consequences are already being felt in cities: rising unemployment, pressure on public services, expansion of slums and social tensions. In July, citizens of Sabzevar staged night-time protests in front of government buildings, shouting: ‘Water, electricity, life is our fundamental right.’ These demonstrations are repeated in cities in the north, centre and south-west of the country, often suppressed by the security forces.
At the same time, the deterioration in the quality of life is widespread. With power cuts adding to the lack of water, many families are unable to use fans or air conditioning, while food spoils quickly and gastrointestinal diseases are on the rise due to the poor quality of the water consumed. Pressure on hospitals has also grown, as many health centres do not have enough water to ensure basic hygiene conditions.
Collapsed infrastructure and inadequate policies
The current state of Iran's water and electricity infrastructure is precarious. More than 40% of treated water is lost through leaks in faulty pipes. Despite this, investment in modernisation has been minimal. The government's response has mainly consisted of calls for conservation, public holidays to reduce consumption and public statements without any structural plan behind them.
Mohsen Ardakani, head of the Tehran Water and Sanitation Company, revealed that 70% of residents consume more than the recommended limit of 130 litres per day, suggesting both a problem of awareness and inequality in access. The upper class can afford to store or buy bottled water or water from tanker trucks, while the poorest sectors face shortages with limited resources.
Hamidreza Khodabakhshi, president of the Khuzestan Union of Hydraulic Engineers, harshly criticised the government's policies: ‘Repeated calls for conservation, without real action by the authorities, are a way of unfairly blaming the citizen. The system needs a total overhaul, not only in water management, but in the entire energy governance of the country.’
Maps of water transmission lines, recently broadcast on state television, sparked a new controversy. Activists described them as a violation of national security, especially at a time of regional tensions with Israel and the United States. Public unrest is thus intertwined with a deterioration of trust in institutions.
Tension with neighbouring countries and loss of regional influence
The water crisis in Iran is having effects beyond its borders. Firstly, it has exacerbated tensions with Afghanistan over the shared use of the Helmand River. Dams built by the Taliban have significantly reduced the flow reaching the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchistan, one of the areas most affected by the drought. Tehran has repeatedly accused Kabul of violating bilateral agreements on water sharing. In 2023, this dispute even led to armed clashes on the border, an episode that is now taking on greater significance given this year's extreme shortages.
There are also internal frictions that have regional repercussions. The central government has prioritised water supplies to Tehran through transfers from northern provinces, fuelling tensions in peripheral regions with distinct ethnic or religious identities, such as Khuzestan (Arab), Kurdistan (Kurdish) and Baluchistan (Sunni Baluch). Growing dissatisfaction in these areas could destabilise regions bordering Iraq, Turkey and Pakistan, especially if internal or cross-border migration intensifies.
On the other hand, reduced water availability has forced a reduction in hydroelectric power generation, causing widespread blackouts. This is impacting industrial production and limiting the logistical support Iran provides to allies such as Syria and Lebanon, especially in a context of recovery from the recent military conflict with Israel and the United States. Internal energy weakness reduces Tehran's room for manoeuvre in its regional alliances.
Finally, environmental deterioration and the scarcity of basic services are affecting the international image of the Iranian regime, which continues to allocate resources to military and nuclear programmes while failing to guarantee drinking water for part of its population. This weakens its narrative of self-sufficiency and calls into question its management capacity in the eyes of the international community.