Why is Morocco in Daesh's spotlight in the Sahel?

1. Terrorist ambitions in the Sahel: a growing threat to Morocco
2. Morocco, a bulwark for Europe and a key player in international cooperation

Morocco, located at the crossroads of Africa, Europe and the Arab world, occupies a decisive geostrategic position that makes it a pillar of regional stability, while at the same time making it vulnerable to the expansionist ambitions of terrorist groups in the Sahelo-Saharan region. For this reason, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), led by Abu Al-Barra Sahraoui, as well as some dissident factions of the GSIM, Boko Haram and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), consider Morocco to be a major obstacle to their expansion.

To fully understand the origins of the chaos reigning in the Sahel, it is essential to trace its history. The rise of jihadism in this region has its roots in the evolution of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), born in Algeria in the 1990s following a break with the Armed Islamic Group (GIA). This split marked a strategic turning point, as the GSPC rejected the indiscriminate atrocities of the GIA in favour of a more structured expansion, seeking to establish its influence beyond the borders of Algeria. Adopting a more calculated approach, the GSPC has abandoned indiscriminate violence in favour of methodical expansion on a regional scale.

Under the leadership of emblematic figures such as Abderrazak El Para, whose real name is Amari Saifi (currently under house arrest in Algeria), the organisation has been able to forge strategic alliances with influential figures in Sahelian jihadism, in particular Iyad Ag Ghali.

These connections allowed the GSPC to establish a lasting foothold in the transnational terrorist movement, thus consolidating a network with ramifications spread throughout the Sahel. This dynamic facilitated its implantation in the Sahel and its rapprochement with other local factions. In 2007, the organisation swore allegiance to al-Qaeda and changed its name to AQIM, which strengthened its influence in a wider territory. However, military pressure in Algeria and the reorganisation of jihadist groups favoured the emergence of new structures more adapted to the Sahel context. In this context, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM) emerged, bringing together several factions under the leadership of Iyad Ag Ghali.

This evolution reflects the adaptation of jihadism to the Sahel environment, taking advantage of the weakness of states and community tensions to extend its control over the region. However, changes within Sahel jihadist groups, initially linked to al-Qaeda, have been profoundly influenced by the emergence of Daesh in the Middle East (Iraq/Syria). Factions such as Ansar Eddine, Al-Mourabitoune and MUJAO (Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa) have gradually evolved, marking an ideological and strategic break. In 2015, a split within Al-Mourabitoun, which in turn had broken away from al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, led to the creation of the Islamic State of the Great Sahara, which swore allegiance to the Islamic State of the Levant (ISL).

Mainly based in Mali and active along the Mali-Niger border, ISGS extends its operations as far as Burkina Faso. Its most notable action remains the attack on 4 October 2017 against a joint US-Nigerian patrol near Tongo Tongo (Niger), which killed eight soldiers (four Americans and four Nigerians). This event highlighted the operational danger of the group and its capacity to attack international targets, reinforcing its status as a major threat to regional and Western security. 

Furthermore, although the international coalition has inflicted severe setbacks on Daesh in Syria and Iraq, the group has been able to reorganise and move to areas favourable to its expansion, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. According to the Global Terrorism Index of 2023, Daesh is responsible for more than 25% of terrorism-related deaths on the continent, causing the deaths of thousands of people, including more than 6,800 in the Sahel in 2023, a figure to which Daesh and its affiliates such as ISGS contribute significantly. Furthermore, the economic impact of terrorism in Africa is devastating: the UN estimates total losses of 119 billion dollars between 2007 and 2016, while annual security spending amounts to almost 84 billion dollars and population displacement generates economic losses of some 312.7 billion dollars.

It is no secret that this threat goes beyond the ideological framework and is part of a geopolitical game in which the Kingdom plays a central role in the fight against terrorism. In a Maghreb marked by geopolitical ambitions and diplomatic tensions, the rise of terrorist groups can be explained by a combination of structural factors. The fragility of the Sahel states, incapable of consolidating effective security governance, leaves room for loopholes that extremist networks do not hesitate to exploit.

Furthermore, porous borders facilitate illicit trade (in drugs, arms and human trafficking) and the cross-border movement of combatants, while the interference of foreign actors, motivated by their own strategic interests, accentuates regional instability.

The persistent conflict between Morocco and Algeria, which exacerbates regional rivalry due to the latter's constant support for the separatist Polisario Front movement, further complicates the geostrategic landscape. This combination creates an environment conducive to the expansion of security threats, requiring a coordinated response to restore stability in the region. Due to its proximity and its commitment to security, Morocco is perceived as a bulwark that hinders their advance. 

Thus, Morocco, fully aware of current security challenges, has been able to develop a solid defence doctrine centred on strengthening its national security and optimising its strategic alliances. Thanks to a proactive and holistic approach, the Kingdom has established itself as a key player in regional stability, relying on an evolving security architecture that integrates advanced surveillance capabilities, effective inter-institutional coordination and a mechanism for combating hybrid threats. The modernisation of its security forces, together with the integration of cutting-edge technologies, an advanced intelligence architecture and cyber-surveillance, has enabled Morocco to anticipate and neutralise emerging risks. In addition, the consolidation of its international alliances, particularly with the United States, the European Union and African countries, reinforces its position as a security provider.

Morocco is strengthening its position as a strategic axis in the fight against terrorism by deploying an effective operational intelligence service and consolidating the capabilities of the Sahel forces through specialised training programmes within the framework of the United Nations Office on Counter-Terrorism in Rabat. Its active engagement in multilateral initiatives, in particular the Focus Africa Group, allows it to play a key role in neutralising jihadist networks and controlling cross-border threats.

Terrorist ambitions in the Sahel: a growing threat to Morocco

This integrated approach makes Morocco a resilient fortress and a model of adaptability in the face of constantly evolving security challenges. As a strategic partner of the United States and Europe, the Kingdom contributes to the protection of the southern flank of the Atlantic Alliance and to the control of strategic migratory flows towards Europe. Its intelligence power is based on a sophisticated security architecture and on the synergy between various top-level security services. This inter-agency coordination guarantees effective anticipation of asymmetric threats and a rapid response capacity against both dormant and active terrorist cells, thus consolidating Morocco's role as a pillar of regional and international security.

In this sense, since 2002, this dynamic has led to the dismantling of more than 200 terrorist cells, some of them closely linked to the jihadist networks operating in the Sahelo-Saharan zone, in Syria and in Iraq. Thanks to a strategy that combines the sophisticated use of intelligence, technological counterintelligence and in-depth analysis techniques of terrorist and criminal networks, Morocco is positioning itself as a strategic bulwark against transnational threats and the mutations of globalised terrorism. In this sense, the terrorist conspiracy dismantled by Morocco powerfully illustrates the Kingdom's determination to counter extremist networks with cross-border ramifications. The intelligence services, in close cooperation with their international counterparts, have uncovered a clandestine network led by a senior Daesh official, whose influence extended to the heart of Moroccan territory. The operation of 19 February 2025 is emblematic of this response.

Thanks to exceptionally precise information provided by the DGST, the BCIJ carried out a strategic operation that neutralised a terrorist cell active in nine Moroccan cities. Twelve suspects were arrested and a large cache of explosives, sophisticated weapons and sensitive documents were seized in a clandestine logistics centre in Errachidia, a key border area with Algeria and close to the Sahel. Among the main findings is a hidden arsenal, which illustrates the magnitude of the conspiracy and the transnational reach of jihadist networks. Extensive investigations have revealed that this network is led by the head of Daesh's Foreign Operations in the Sahel, instigator of the conspiracy and organiser of the operation, with the support of a team of coordinators, executors and logistical facilitators. Furthermore, there is evidence confirming the existence of a strategic logistical sanctuary that plays a crucial role in the transport of weapons from the Sahel to Morocco through corridors that connect Gao and Kidal in northern Mali, passing through Arlit in Niger, to Tamanrasset in southern Algeria. The activation of these discreet routes illustrates the sophistication of jihadist supply circuits and underlines the urgency of reinforcing surveillance of border areas and critical arms trafficking routes.

No one can deny that the chronic instability of the Sahel is due to several structural factors, including the fragility of states, porous borders, geopolitical upheavals and the interference of foreign non-state actors. These elements create a breeding ground for the expansion of terrorist groups and separatist movements, which take advantage of these flaws to consolidate their influence. By supporting the separatist Polisario Front movement, Algeria plays an indirect role in this conflictive dynamic, contributing to the destabilisation of the region.

An emblematic example of this interaction between separatism and terrorism manifested itself in 2016, with the blocking of the Guerguerate pass, a border crossing between Morocco and Mauritania, by the armed militias of the Polisario. This criminal act disrupted trade flows between the two countries, thus hindering regional cooperation and creating grey areas that could be exploited by jihadist groups. 

Furthermore, the Tindouf camps, located in south-western Algeria, are another example of this porosity. With little control from Algiers, these camps allow the infiltration of arms, contraband and combatants into the theatres of operations in the Sahel, thus fuelling a spiral of violence and instability.

Furthermore, the link between separatism and terrorism in the Sahel is illustrated by the origin and expansion of the ISGS. Founded by Abou Adnan Walid Sahraoui, a former member of the Polisario, this terrorist gang has relied on existing networks within the separatist movement to strengthen its presence. The vulnerability of the borders, particularly between Algeria and Mauritania, together with the passivity of the Algerian authorities in the face of Polisario activities, facilitates the rise of these clandestine networks and their ability to operate in total discretion. Furthermore, the fall of Gaddafi in Libya, together with the massive dispersal of millions of small arms, has considerably intensified arms trafficking to date.

In fact, a United Nations report published in 2022 highlights these interactions, emphasising proven cases of arms trafficking through the Tindouf camps. These weapons directly feed terrorist groups active in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, exacerbating violence and further weakening state structures in the Sahel.

This situation reinforces the hypothesis that certain factions of the Polisario, despite their propaganda, maintain opportunistic relations with jihadist groups to maximise their influence and ensure their survival in an increasingly fragmented regional context. Thus, the collusion between separatism and terrorism in the Sahel constitutes an aggravating factor of regional and subregional instability. The lack of effective state control, the proliferation of arms and the complacency of some state actors towards separatist movements create an environment favourable to the expansion of jihadist groups.

Morocco, a bulwark for Europe and a key player in international cooperation

There is no doubt that terrorist groups are also targeting Morocco as part of a broader destabilisation strategy aimed at opening a breach towards Europe. As the last bastion before the northwest of the continent, the Kingdom plays a crucial role in neutralising cross-border jihadist flows. Its collaboration with the Spanish, US and French services has made it possible to dismantle several terrorist cells. The latest joint operation between the Moroccan and Spanish services, carried out in November 2024 in Tetouan and Madrid, is an example of exceptional cooperation on security matters.

At the strategic level, Morocco is a key partner of the United States in the framework of the Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Programme (TSCTP). The strategic exchange of information between the General Directorate of Territorial Surveillance (DGST) and the CIA has played a crucial role in neutralising threats that went far beyond Morocco's borders.

An emblematic example of this effective cooperation is the operation against Cole Bridges González's Daesh cell, in which joint intelligence capabilities made it possible to dismantle a terrorist network operating beyond national borders, well in advance of possible attacks. This partnership, based on the exchange of sensitive data, has demonstrated the importance of transnational intelligence in the fight against global threats related to terrorism.

Aware that the fight against extremism cannot be solely about security, Morocco has adopted a strategy that integrates prevention and socio-economic development. The Mohammed VI Foundation of African Ulemas plays a key role in promoting a tolerant Islam and in training imams, while economic programmes strengthen the population's resilience to extremist discourse. However, the persistence of terrorist hotbeds in the Sahel and the involvement of external actors, such as the Wagner group, complicate the stabilisation of the region. The failure of conventional military interventions has strengthened the roots of jihadist groups, requiring greater vigilance and a readjustment of counter-terrorism strategies.

Morocco's security approach is certainly not limited to protecting its borders, but also aims to contain the terrorist threat before it reaches its territory. Thanks to constant cooperation with the Sahel countries and Western agencies, the Moroccan services have been able to disrupt several arms and financing supply chains for jihadist groups operating between Mali, Niger and Libya.

At the same time, the flow of foreign fighters transiting through the Maghreb to the Sahel has been considerably reduced thanks to intensified border controls, aerial surveillance and information sharing with neighbouring countries. Thus, the Moroccan influence is also exerted at a political and diplomatic level. By advocating a holistic approach that combines security and development, Morocco has helped to change the perception of long-term solutions to counteract instability in the Sahel region. The implementation of economic cooperation and humanitarian aid projects in sensitive regions has made jihadist groups less attractive to marginalised populations.

By attacking the financial structure of terrorist organisations, Morocco has played a crucial role in dismantling the clandestine jihadist financing circuits that pass through the southern provinces of Morocco, Mauritania and Mali. Thanks to greater traceability of financial flows and strengthened cooperation with regional banking institutions, several sources of terrorist financing have been identified and blocked, limiting the operational capacity of extremist groups.

Towards a redefinition of security strategies

The challenge of the Sahel, one of the most persistent terrorist hotbeds, highlights the limitations of purely security-based approaches. The failure of conventional military interventions, particularly those carried out as part of Operation Barkhane, has favoured the consolidation of terrorist groups that exploit the fragmentation of states and the weakness of local institutions. The deployment of foreign mercenaries, such as the Wagner group, accentuates this instability, making it essential to review security strategies.

Faced with this reality, Morocco is establishing itself as a key player by developing a hybrid approach that combines high-precision intelligence, proactive diplomacy and economic development initiatives. The modernisation of surveillance capabilities, together with the promotion of a moderate Islam by institutions such as the Mohammed VI Foundation of African Ulemas, illustrates this multidimensional strategy aimed at drying up the breeding ground for radicalisation.

For this reason, the asymmetric threats of the future will demand greater vigilance and permanent innovation in security strategies. Morocco's integration into high-level intelligence alliances with the United States and the United Kingdom, along the lines of the Five Eyes agreements, would represent a major strategic advance by reinforcing its capabilities in cybersecurity and electromagnetic intelligence. Because the fight against terrorism will not be won by force alone, but by a combination of disruptive technologies, strategic anticipation and multilateral cooperation. In this context, Morocco, as a security hub in Africa, the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, has a central role to play in redefining the paradigms of global security. 

In light of this, Morocco finds itself at the centre of a complex security landscape, straddling its responsibilities as a regional pillar and the expansionist ambitions of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara and its affiliates, as well as the separatist dynamics embodied by certain factions of the Polisario. Its strategic position and its commitment to cutting-edge operational intelligence place it at the forefront of the fight against transnational terrorism. Thanks to a solid defence doctrine, the constant modernisation of its forces and close international cooperation, the Kingdom has established itself as a true provider of global security. Paradoxically, it is precisely this efficiency in intelligence and border security that makes it a prime target for those seeking to destabilise the regional balance.

Finally, in an already fragile geopolitical context, the threat posed by Daesh is finding increasingly fertile ground in the heart of the Sahel, exacerbated by weak state structures and international inaction. If urgent and concerted action is not taken, the situation may become irreversible. By strategically shifting its activities to this region, the terrorist group is not only sowing terror at the local level, but also preparing the ground for a global threat. 

Now more than ever, it is crucial that the international community understands the scope of this threat and acts in a unified manner. The expansion of Daesh beyond the borders of the Sahel, especially towards Europe and the Atlantic, is more than just a possibility; it is a reality that is becoming clearer every day. If the international community does not mobilise decisively and immediately, the whole world risks suffering the consequences of this plague, long considered distant, but now at our doorstep. The Sahel will no longer be a simple laboratory of terror, it will be the starting point for global destabilisation of unprecedented magnitude. It is time to act before it is too late. Faced with this catastrophic scenario, the international community must act without delay to counter the expansion of Daesh in the Sahel and beyond. Imagine a future in which, without coordinated intervention, jihadist networks spread from this already unstable hotbed to the entire African continent, threatening even Europe and other strategic regions. 

This threat is not an abstraction: it represents a real threat to global stability, a drift that could transform areas of localised conflict and grey areas into hotbeds of transnational radicalisation. It is time to state this bluntly, even if cynics and sceptics continue to minimise the seriousness of the situation: time is running out and the inaction of the international community risks plunging the world into a security crisis of unprecedented magnitude. 

It is time to act, or risk seeing the threats spread much further than we can imagine.