Coronavirus grows back in the Middle East

The rate of COVID-19 infection has increased again in some Middle Eastern countries after the Ramadan period, while some states are hesitant between de-escalation to encourage the economy and the evidence that virtually none has yet reached the peak of the disease. 

Muslims ended on May 23rd one of the worst months of Ramadan they can remember. Between restrictions and curfews, millions of people in the Middle East spent one of the most critical moments for the spread of the disease because of the familiarity and sociability of the dates. 

Two weeks after the end of Ramadan, Saudi Arabia became the first Arab country to reach 100,000 cases of COVID-19.

The Kingdom applied a harsh curfew in the final stretch of Ramadan and wanted to make way for a three-phase de-escalation that has already had to be suspended in Jeddah, the country's second city, due to the increasing cases. 

Saudi Arabia has moved from 2,646 to 3,121 by May 23, but it was not the only one. Several countries have also increased the rate of daily infections in that period: Iraq went from 87 to 1,252, in Egypt from 783 to 1,348 and in Iran it jumped from 2,311 to 3,574 until last Friday.

The World Health Organization (WHO) believes the increases are "worrying," Richard Brennan, Director of Emergency for the Eastern Mediterranean region of the WHO, which covers from Morocco to Afghanistan, told Efe. 

Brennan noted that "probably" this increase in numbers is a mixture of increased number of tests that are made in some countries and the spread of the disease, although he said it still takes "a couple of weeks" to determine the causes of the growth, as each country has its own circumstances. 

However, in his opinion, in some countries, which he did not identify, the relaxation measures "have not been so structured" in determining whether there were conditions to implement them. 

In nations such as Iraq, curfews have been intermittent, and in Egypt, authorities began to revive some economic activities such as allowing minimum hotel occupancy. 

He also recognized that “people are getting tired of having their movements restricted” and some limitations “may not be as strict as they used to be, especially for those near the poverty line working in the informal sector,” and whom these measures hit “hard.”

“In countries where there is a decrease in the number of cases it’s reasonable to start relaxing some of those measures, I think when we start to see relaxation in the measurements, while the covid continues to rise, that’s the problem, “said Brennan.

He stressed that the WHO is well aware of the economic and social impact the pandemic is having, but reiterated that some measures may involve "short-term pain and longer-term gain.” 

Although the situation has become more complicated in several countries in the region, Yemen, a country destroyed by war and without a health structure capable of responding, is the worst-case scenario. 

“We think the situation is much worse than the official figures indicate,” said Brennan, for whom “there is substantial underreporting on the actual figure.”

“We are working on the assumption that we have a transmission at the community level, in the two parts in the north and in the south. It would be unreasonable to think otherwise,” he added.

Yemeni authorities have so far reported 486 cases and 112 deaths from COVID-19 in Yemen, but organizations such as Doctors Without Borders, which have the only hospital prepared to treat the disease in Aden (south), speak of dozens of deaths with coronavirus symptoms.

Brennan recalled that so far only ten of the country’s 21 provinces provide data and that it is “practically impossible” to coordinate a response when the country is divided into sides in the middle of a war.