Europe, the living image of a world warming due to climate change

Temperatures in Europe have risen more than twice the global average over the past 30 years, the highest of any continent in the world, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The State of Europe's Climate Report reveals that as the continent's warming trend continues, exceptional heat, forest fires, floods and other effects of climate change will affect the region's society, economy and ecosystems.

Produced jointly with the European Union's Copernicus* Climate Change Service, the report shows that temperatures in Europe have increased significantly over the period 1991-2021, at an average rate of about +0.5°C per decade.

As a consequence, alpine glaciers have lost 30 metres of ice thickness between 1997 and 2021. The Greenland ice sheet is melting and contributing to accelerating sea level rise. In the summer of 2021, Greenland experienced a widespread melting event and the first rainfall ever recorded at its highest point, Summit Station.

In 2021 alone, extreme weather and climate events caused hundreds of fatalities, directly affected more than half a million people and caused economic damage exceeding $50 billion. Some 84% of these events were floods or storms.

It is not all bad news. Several countries in Europe have been very successful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, in the European Union, greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 31% between 1990 and 2020, with a net reduction target of 55% by 2030.

Europe is also one of the most advanced regions in transboundary cooperation on climate change adaptation, in particular in transnational river basins. And it is one of the world leaders in the provision of effective early warning systems, with 75% of people protected. Heat action plans have saved many lives from extreme heat waves.

"Europe presents a vivid picture of a warming world and reminds us that even well-prepared societies are not safe from the impacts of extreme weather events. This year, as in 2021, large parts of Europe have been affected by extensive heat waves and droughts that have fuelled forest fires.  In 2021, exceptional floods caused death and devastation," recalled the secretary general of the World Meteorological Organisation.

Professor Petteri Taalas commented that, as far as the climate change mitigation chapter is concerned, the good pace of greenhouse gas emission reductions in the region must continue while it must continue to increase its ambition to counter the impact of climate change.

"Europe can play a key role in achieving a carbon neutral society by mid-century and meeting the Paris Agreement," said Professor Taalas.

"European society is vulnerable to climate variability and change, but Europe is also at the forefront of the international effort to mitigate climate change and develop innovative solutions to adapt to the new climate that the continent's citizens will have to live with," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, weather, climate and water-related disasters are expected to increase in the future. The document finds that there is a high likelihood of:

• temperatures will increase in all European areas at a rate above the global average temperature, similar to past observations and irrespective of future global warming levels
• the frequency and intensity of temperature extremes, including marine heat waves, will continue to increase regardless of the greenhouse gas emissions scenario, with critical thresholds for ecosystems and humans of either 2 degrees Celsius or above
• summer precipitation in the Mediterranean will decrease, extending to northern regions, while extreme precipitation and pluvial flooding will increase in all regions except the Mediterranean.

Europeans' health is being and will be affected by climate change in multiple ways, including death from increasingly frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves.

Health will also be affected through a range of ailments, with an increase in zoonoses and food-, water- and vector-borne diseases, as well as mental health problems.

The most deadly extreme weather events in Europe are heat waves, especially in the west and south of the continent. The combination of climate change, urbanisation and population ageing in the region exacerbates and will further aggravate vulnerability to heat.

Climate change-induced alterations in the production and distribution of pollens and spores may lead to an increase in allergic disorders. More than 24% of adults living in the European region suffer from a variety of allergies, including severe asthma, while the proportion among children in the region is 30-40% and rising.

Climate change also affects the distribution of vector-borne diseases. For example, ticks (Ixodes ricinus), which can spread Lyme disease and encephalitis.

According to the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, about half a million premature deaths in the European region were caused by anthropogenic fine particulate air pollution in 2019, a significant proportion of which were directly related to the burning of fossil fuels.

An estimated 138,000 premature deaths per year could be prevented by reducing carbon emissions, which could save between $244 billion and $564 billion.

UNICEF, meanwhile, notes that some 125 million children, who are most vulnerable to extreme weather events, face a number of health risks in the region

Climate change is also having a serious impact on European ecosystems. For example, most of the damage caused by forest fires is due to extreme events for which neither ecosystems nor communities are adapted.

Climate change, human behaviours and other underlying factors are creating the conditions for more frequent, intense and devastating fires in Europe, with major socio-economic and ecological consequences.

In terms of transport, infrastructures and transport operations are at risk of various consequences, as they were built on the basis of historical values of weather events and are therefore not resilient to current extremes.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the plans in which each country submits its climate action commitments under the Paris Agreement, embody efforts to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.  As of March 2022, 51 European countries and the European Union had submitted one such plan.

Climate change mitigation has been a primary objective of many European countries, especially in the following areas:

• energy supply
• agriculture
• waste
• land use
• land use change
• forestry

In 2021, the European Union, in its climate law, made climate neutrality, the goal of zero net emissions by 2050, legally binding. An interim target of 55% emissions reduction by 2030 was set.

*The Copernicus service provides state-of-the-art climate monitoring data and tools to support climate mitigation and adaptation and initiatives such as the European Green Deal.