Orderly disintegration in the Maghreb and a new political map in the Sahel?

1. Natural complementarities and artificial obstacles
2. The Algerian obstacle
3. Morocco as a pivotal country
4. Reconfiguration scenario 2025-2035
5. Implications and prospects

The borders inherited from colonization, drawn arbitrarily to suit the interests of European powers, created artificialstates that ignored age-old ethnic, cultural and economic realities. Today, this artificial division is being challenged by the need for integrated regional development and stabilization of the Sahel.

The multiplication of regional development initiatives, particularly those led by Morocco, calls for a coherent territorial reorganization. TheAfrican Atlantic Gas Pipeline, theAtlantic Access Initiative for Sahelian countries, and the Cairo-Tangiers rail link project cannot achieve their full potential within current borders. These structuring projects require a fluid, integrated space, where natural complementarities can be fully expressed.

The repeated failure of purely security-based approaches in the Sahel demonstrates the need for a paradigm shift. From Operation Serval to Barkhane, via the various G5 Sahel initiatives, all attempts at stabilization focused solely on the military aspect have failed. This historical lesson calls for a new approach, combining security and development within a rethought territorial framework.

Natural complementarities and artificial obstacles

The Maghreb and Sahel regions have obvious natural geostrategic complementarities. The Maghreb offers dual access to the Mediterranean and theAtlantic, while the Sahel constitutes the indispensable strategic depth towards sub-Saharan Africa. This natural complementarity, which has historically structured trans-Saharan trade for centuries, is today hampered by colonial borders that ignore historical, ethnic and economic realities.

The Algerian obstacle

Algeria is currently the major obstacle to regional integration. The emblematic Cairo-Tangiers rail link, vital for North African development, remains blocked by its intransigence. This systematic obstruction of regional integration projects is accompanied by tensions with practically all its neighbors: appalling relations with Mali, latent conflict with Morocco, attempts at destabilization, tensions with Tunisia and Libya.

The geostrategic blindness of the Algerian regime is also evident in its risky diplomatic choices. Its recent support for the Assad regime, at a time when an international consensus is emerging in favor of its departure, illustrates this chronic inability to read global geopolitical developments. This strategic short-sightedness, combined with a non-diversified economy and a weakened army, is precipitating the country's isolation.

Morocco as a pivotal country

Against this backdrop, Morocco naturally emerges as a pivotal country, thanks to its unique geographical position. Its double seafront, proximity to Europe and deep African roots make it a natural hub for regional integration. This position is accompanied by proven expertise in integrated development, illustrated by the success of major structuring projects and a holistic vision of development.

Moroccan leadership is expressed through several major initiatives: theAfrican Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP), a $25 billion project forming the backbone of a new regional integration, theAtlantic Access Initiative for Sahel countries, theAlliance of Atlantic African States, the Dakhla Gateway project and the East-West economic corridors.

Reconfiguration scenario 2025-2035

This analysis projects a major recomposition with :

• the return to Morocco of the Eastern Sahara territories from which it had been amputated
• The emergence of a new federated Sahelian state incorporating part of southern Algeria.
• An Algeria refocused on the former regency of Algiers
• An independent Kabylia
• A massive modernization plan for the new Algeria and Kabylia

This reconfiguration was aided by the new non-interventionist American doctrine and the acceptance of Russian-American cohabitation in the region. International financial support and the involvement of global economic players are facilitating this orderly transition.

Implications and prospects

Implementation requires orderly transition management, solid international guarantees and substantial economic support. Expected benefits include enhanced regional stability, deeper economic integration, more balanced development and reduced ethnic tensions.

This major geopolitical reconfiguration paves the way for a new, more stable and prosperous regional order, based on respect for historical and ethnic realities, and integrated into a dynamic of modern, sustainable development.

Abdelhakim Yamani. Horizons Geopolitical Institute