The fall of Maduro and the weakening of the Polisario's allies: a strategic shift in Latin America

Maduro, heir to the “Bolivarian” project established by Hugo Chávez in 1999 under the name of the “Fifth Republic,” for years kept Venezuela as one of the main supporters of the Polisario Front's cause in Latin America, along with Cuba, supplying weapons and political backing to the separatists.

Maduro's downfall not only reflects the effectiveness of the US military intervention, but also anticipates an acceleration in the weakening of international support for the separatist approach in the Sahara. With Venezuela mired in chronic economic crisis and under international pressure, the future of Bolivarian support for the Polisario becomes uncertain.

Since coming to power, Maduro has strengthened ties with the Polisario even as other South American countries began to withdraw their recognition of the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic and to support Morocco's proposal for autonomy as a solution to the conflict.

The reception of Polisario leaders in Caracas and the signing of strategic agreements consolidated Venezuela as a key ally of separatism, also allowing indirect access to Algeria and the North African region.

The Kingdom of Morocco, aware of Maduro's influence on the Polisario's international profile, has supported the interim president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, since 2019, promoting his recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara and thus reducing the separatist cause's room for maneuver.

The end of Maduro's term coincides with a broader trend of declining support for the Polisario. From the elimination of Libya's support following the death of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria in late 2024, the Polisario's international support network has progressively shrunk, leaving Algeria as its last political and financial refuge.

However, even Algeria is now facing strong international pressure to negotiate with Morocco and move towards a solution based on the autonomy proposal.

The weakening of these historic allies reflects a global strategic shift: former supporters of separatism are now isolated, while the international community is moving toward practical recognition of the Moroccan approach. This transition not only has immediate geopolitical consequences, but also redefines the balance of power in North Africa and Latin America.

In conclusion, Maduro's capture and the subsequent erosion of support for the Polisario's allies represent a decisive shift in the international dynamics of Western Sahara.

Morocco finds itself in a strengthened position, while separatist movements are losing their strategic footholds, accelerating a process that had seemed stagnant for decades. This scenario highlights how decisions on one continent can have a strong impact on another, demonstrating the interconnectedness of political alliances and the importance of regional stability in an increasingly interdependent world. 

Abdelhay Korret, Moroccan journalist and writer