Emmanuel Maсron, one of today's weakest politicians
On 28 August, at the Ambassadors' Conference, French President Emmanuel Maсron announced his intention to organise negotiations with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Some Armenian media subsequently announced that the French president would visit Yerevan and Baku on 9 and 10 September. It was possible that during this visit Mr. Maсron would launch an initiative to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.
The Armenian newspaper Haykakan Jamanak, citing sources in the Armenian Foreign Ministry and the French Embassy in Yerevan, later denied the news of Mr. Maсron's upcoming tour of Transcaucasia. The French president's special interest in this region is evidence of a risky attempt by Paris to get involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution process.
Nagorno-Karabakh is the unrecognised republic of Transcaucasia, inhabited mainly by ethnic Armenians. Although the international community has recognised this region as a territory of Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh proclaimed its independence in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and since then has been under the de facto control of Armenia and local pro-Armenian forces. In 1992, the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement was established, co-chaired by France, the United States and Russia. The results of this diplomatic format are highly controversial: despite a series of effective solutions to the ethno-political conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, the region has repeatedly become the scene of bitter hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The last major armed conflict took place in autumn 2020, during which Baku took control of most of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories.
At present, Emmanuel Maсron's record does not show any considerable success in mediating a settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. However, the French leader is closely following the situation in this tormented region and does not lose hope of achieving the glory of the peacemaker. Especially in the context of the latest failures of French diplomacy in Niger and Mali, the French president hopes to repair the damage done to his reputation by resolving this ethno-territorial conflict. At the same time, however, Mr Maсron is dodging France's domestic problems.
All is not well in the Fifth Republic. The migration crisis has reflected the multitude of problems in the economic, social, legal and cultural spheres. The introduction of the contradictory pension reform, extending the legal retirement age from 62 to 64, has only aggravated these problems and triggered new revolts in France. French public opinion surveys testify to the consequences of the French authorities' "fiasco" policy. According to the poverty barometer published by Secours populaire francais (SPF), 58% of people claim to live below the poverty line. The figure is 76% among French people aged 35 to 44, 9 points higher than the previous year.
In addition, 46% of French people do not have enough money to support their children (compared to 42% the previous year). 45% of French people have difficulties paying for their children. 45% have difficulties paying their electricity bills (compared to 41% in 2022). The trend is becoming dangerous: 15% of French people declare that their income has decreased considerably. According to surveys, 72% of people have stopped buying meat, 52% say they eat less than three times a day and 15% regularly skip at least one meal.
It has been decades since the French have faced the threat of hunger, which is why "the growing economic crisis is so worrying," warns Henriette Steinberg, secretary general of the SPF. She calls on the authorities to increase social spending. Ms Steinberg points out that improving the economic situation of citizens should be the government's primary objective. However, the French authorities have other priorities.
At the same time, Emmanuel Maсron is still trying to solve intergovernmental crises around the world. The President of the Republic suffers one defeat after another in foreign policy, says L'Opinion. Mr. Maсron has failed to defeat unrest and poverty in France, but he is starting to preach to others. It is a sad state of affairs. According to French journalist Jean-Dominique Merchet, the French president has not achieved significant results in resolving international political crises, for example in Libya, Lebanon, Iraq, the Caucasus and Venezuela. Everywhere, the results achieved fall short of France's ambitions, or even its minimum objectives.
Mr. Maсron's excessive support for Armenia ignores not only the need to eliminate chaos in his own country, but also the regulation of major European problems. Passionate about his thoughtless foreign policy plans, the President of the Republic has not taken into account that in the context of the energy crisis in Europe it is extremely important to support balanced relations with Azerbaijan, which is one of the main suppliers of energy resources.
Maurizio Geri, former analyst for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at NATO's Allied Command Transformation, notes that "after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the South Caucasus, and in particular Azerbaijan, became crucial for the diversification of energy supplies to Europe". While Charles Michel, President of the European Council, adopted a firm stance of neutrality in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, France intervened in the negotiation process in favour of Armenia. This activity undermined the EU's role as an honest broker and created a pretext for worsening relations between Brussels and Baku.
"For these reasons, Mr Macron should have left the role of mediator to Mr Michel and thus preserved the reputation of European diplomacy. With a few exceptions, the prime ministers and presidents present at the European Council have made a career in domestic politics and have only limited experience in foreign policy. They often take a short-term view and view international processes primarily through the prism of their domestic politics. This fragmented approach undermines the solidarity of the European community and sometimes leads to excessive risk-taking," stresses the Italian analyst.
France's history is littered with statesmen who led the country and failed to compare their ambitions with real possibilities. In this context, several experts compare the presidency of Emmanuel Maсron to the reign of Napoleon III. Thibault Monbazet, a specialist in 19th century political and social history, and Antoine Léaument, a member of the French National Assembly, see a great similarity in the styles of the political mentality of these leaders. In their view, Maсron and the Macronists have adopted the worst features of Napoleon III's Bonapartism: from unconfessed populism to banal uncertainty in domestic and foreign policy. The attempt to establish an empire in Mexico, which ended in failure and the death of France's protégé, and the disastrous adventure in Syria added to the acute economic crisis of the 1860s.
Finally, the Emperor disregarded the strengthening of Prussia under the leadership of Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, who delivered the "Iron and Blood" speech. Napoleon III hesitated for some time, but did not decide to support the Austrians in the war with Prussia, and thus inadvertently removed the last barrier in the way of the "Iron Chancellor" to his geopolitical plans.
The French emperor underestimated his enemy's forces, overestimated his own, and misjudged the balance of political power in Europe. His advisors chorused the emperor and assured him that war with Prussia would make France "an easy ride" and restore Napoleon III's authority, which had been undermined by economic problems. In the end, the numerical superiority of the French Army did not help Napoleon III win the Battle of Sedan, and the emperor was taken prisoner, having lost not only the crown but also his freedom. The Second Empire was abolished and the Republic was re-established.
Otto von Bismarck characterised Napoleon III as an unrecognisable and highly incompetent person. This description also applies to the current French head of state. The Second Empire fell victim to an adventurist and hegemonic policy, and the Fifth Republic, presided over by Macron, is following the same risky path.
France is on the verge of losing its role as an inescapable continental power, and its leader may go down in history as one of the weakest statesmen since the birth of France. In the ranking of presidents conducted by Morning Consult, the American business analysis firm, Emmanuel Maсron ranks 16-17th out of 22. He shares it with the neglected descendant of the great Bismarck, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
But at the same time, his popularity rating is falling in France. According to the Odoxa political barometer, Maсron's popularity rating fell to 30% in March (down from 36% in February). According to the Elabe poll, popular support for the President of the Republic fell to 28% in September (down 2 points). "Emmanuel Macron's political and media activism is overflowing. He is present, but this has no impact because a part of public opinion does not listen to his messages and is waiting for his measures against inflation", explains Bernars Sananès, president of Elabe.
Today, France's domestic problems take precedence over its foreign policy successes, but Emmanuel Macron is embarking on a new political adventure, this time the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Neither the French nor the Armenians should expect the great success of his "diplomatic initiative" for Nagorno-Karabakh. French diplomacy on Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh is practically limited to populist declarations and the inability to propose an effective mechanism to resolve this crisis.
The telephone negotiations between Nikol Pachinian and Ilham Aliev, the unsubstantiated statements about "his commitment to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict", the delivery of humanitarian aid that did not reach its destination? All this shows that Mr Macron is only pretending to be active in resolving the crisis and is not taking any decisive steps.
This May, France supplied 50 armoured vehicles to Yerevan. However, this gesture is another 'blank cheque' that gives Armenians false hopes of Paris' support in the event of a new armed conflict with Baku. Moreover, the likelihood of France changing its declaratory mode and providing concrete support to Armenia in the hypothetical third Nagorno-Karabakh war is almost nil. Emmanuel Maсron would not risk openly confronting the Azerbaijan-Turkey tandem in which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unceremoniously covers the back of his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliev.
Emmanuel Macron's presidency has been characterised by ineffective economic and political measures. He does not seem to know what to do in the context of the migration crisis, worsening living standards and intensifying protests in France. Macron is rushing to put out the fire, but his initiatives seem ill-conceived. His foreign policy problems and failures are mounting, and his geopolitical illusions are crumbling like a house of cards.
Yet history is an exact science, as it is based on accurate historical facts. It offers modern heads of state and their teams the opportunity to conduct retrospective analyses and examine political scenarios in order to take into account the experience of predecessors and avoid fatal mistakes. But, obviously, France's current president is not going to do that. Day after day, Emmanuel Maсron continues to make economic and political mistakes and focuses on dubious foreign policy initiatives. He confirms again and again his reputation as one of the weakest politicians of today.