Israel-Emirates: symbolic agreement or affirming a reality?

On August 13, a symbolic event took place in the Middle East: the decision of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to normalise diplomatic relations with Israel, the enemy of the Arab world. This decision gave rise to the publication of chronicles and opinion articles extolling the event as a further step in the agony of the idea of two states (one Jewish and one Palestinian) as established in the Oslo Accords of 1993, to extol Trump as a geopolitical "genius" for "settling" the Arab-Israeli conflict. 

This is not the first time that an Arab country has normalised diplomatic relations with Israel: the honour belongs to Egypt, which buried the hatchet with Israel in 1979. In 1994 Jordan sealed peace with Tel Aviv in the wake of the 1993 Oslo Accords, which (in theory) recognised the idea of two states. 

The point now is that Israel is not committed to sacrificing anything symbolic in return for re-establishing diplomatic relations with the UAE. Although it is true that the annexation of the West Bank and the Jewish settlements-something that at first sight keeps the weak flame of the two states alive-Netanyahu was quick to say that the idea of annexing the settlements (embodied in the Trump peace plan) will continue in the future.  As a result, the Arab countries are betraying their traditional promise to support the Palestinian cause, a flag they have proudly flown since 1948. This means that they are giving tacit recognition to the fact that Israel will in future end up incorporating the West Bank (or Judea and Samaria, depending on who speaks) under its control.  

The signatory country, the UAE, is known worldwide for Dubai, the epitome of Arab luxury. In geopolitics, it is a faithful ally of the United States and Saudi Arabia, major powers in the Middle East. Under the command of its current leader Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ), the emirate has established itself as a business enclave and a stronghold vis-à-vis Iran, the chief rival of the United States and the Sunni countries.

This aversion to Iran, for religious and geopolitical reasons, is behind UAE's decision. Since the ayatollahs came to power in 1979, Iran has spread its Shia doctrine throughout the Middle East. Today Tehran's influence is evident in Beirut with Hezbollah in government, in Baghdad, Damascus and Yemen with the Guardians of the Revolution (especially the Quds forces). For the Gulf, Sunni countries, such expansion of this religious current-traditionally oppressed in the Arab world-is seen as a threat to their governments.

These fears were reinforced on September 1, when Ali Khamenei-the Iranian Supreme Leader-stated that the Emirates "will be disgraced for life for this betrayal of the Islamic world, the Arab nations and the Palestinian cause". This message can be interpreted as a call to the Arab people to take to the streets in protest, especially bearing in mind the power of the Palestinian cause to rally the Arab popular conscience.  

This is where the maxim of my enemy's enemy is my friend comes into action: Israel is Iran's deadly adversary. Moreover, it is a leading country in cyber security, espionage and counter-terrorism and Washington's bastion in the region. With these credentials, it is not surprising that the Gulf states decide to bury the hatchet with Tel Aviv in exchange for the benefits of having sensitive information about Iran, US military technology (especially F-35 fighters) or cyber-security systems with which to hack into Iran and its allies.

Finally, we should not forget the big losers of this action: the Palestinians. It is only fair to acknowledge the sensation the Arab world feels in Ramallah of betrayal. We must also recognise that the Palestinian cause no longer has that connotation of injustice it had in the 1970s and 1980s. Today, there are two factions (Hamas and the Palestinian Authority -formerly Fatah-) that are waging a hidden war to become the champions of the Palestinian cause. If we add to this the fact that Hamas is supported by Iran and the allegations of corruption within the Palestinian Authority and their inaction in the face of the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, we can understand the weariness (even if in private) of the Arab countries in supporting the Palestinian cause..

To make things even more complicated, there are Palestinian voices that have supported the Emirates. One of them is Arafat's widow, Suha Arafat, who acknowledged that Palestine cooperates with the Israeli security services, apologised to the Emirates for the Palestinians' reaction and said in an interview with Israeli television that her husband would not have cut off relations with the Emirates, as Ramallah has done. As a result, Ramallah is agonising over a geopolitical and religious conflict that is weakening its possibilities of having a state of its own, giving wings to the Zionist dream of Greater Israel with Judea and Samaria (West Bank) occupied by the Star of David. 

In conclusion, the normalisation of relations between the UAE and Israel is symptomatic of the new lines of conflict that will mark the Middle East in the coming decades: Iran and not Tel Aviv is the new adversary. As a result, the UAE has played the fait accompli card, recognising that sealing peace with Israel will bring it more benefits than supporting a dying cause like Palestine.   

What does the future hold? We saw the answer this week with the arrival in Abu Dhabi of the first commercial flight between Israel and the Emirates by the Israeli airline El Al. Negotiations are underway to formalize the relationship by the middle of this month in Washington with MBZ and Netanyahu as signatories and Trump playing the role of Carter at Camp David in 1978. According to the Israeli press, MBZ is interested in visiting Jerusalem, emulating Sadat in 1977. If this were to happen, it would be confirmation that the board in the Middle East is beginning to be reorganised, with Iran as the new adversary. Although there is still a long way to go, one detail remains, albeit small, symbolic of the Gulf countries' acceptance of Dubai's action: the flight of the El Al was the first Israeli flight to receive permission to fly over Saudi airspace. Such a step may be the beginning of the acceptance by the other Gulf Powers of Israel as an ally rather than an enemy.