Morocco-Spain: more actions and less words

2022 begins with a conflict pending resolution in Spain: the redirection of our relationship with Morocco. Eight months after the outbreak of the Ghali affair, which aggravated relations between the two countries and the departure of Arancha Sánchez Laya from the Foreign Ministry for José Luis Albares - theoretically a more conciliatory profile - both sides have made no progress in improving relations. Rabat has not sent its ambassador back to Madrid and there have been no meetings between the Spanish president and the Moroccan prime minister, nor have there been any between the monarchs of the two countries. It is not yet known whether this will happen with the High-Level Meeting that has not taken place since December 2020. These doubts and missed opportunities indicate that, although diplomatic relations have not been severed - a symptom of poor relations - and despite changes on the Spanish side aimed at improving things, relations between Morocco and Spain are at an impasse, with no progress being made by either side to improve them.

While Spain languishes, other countries are taking advantage of the Sahrawi dispute to make moves, either by ingratiating themselves with Morocco or by conditioning military aid.

In the first case, the new German government has endorsed Morocco's position of resolving the Sahara conflict through autonomy under Moroccan control. Such a decision should be of interest to Spain, as Germany experienced a diplomatic crisis with Morocco last year over the status of the Sahara. That a coalition government of the same party as the one in power in Spain has decided to try to improve relations with Morocco should be seen as an example to Madrid on how to start mending relations with Morocco, especially since Germany and Morocco are not close neighbours. Spain could look for ways to try to accommodate its position that the UN should resolve the conflict with attempts to aggravate Morocco. In the end, better a stable Sahara under Moroccan autonomy or UN tutelage than an independent one, but at the mercy of the terrorist threat, which is not so far away from Western Sahara.

Regarding the conditioning of military aid, the US, through this year's National Defence Authorisation Act, makes military aid to Morocco conditional on finding a mutually acceptable political solution for Western Sahara. The US, through Trump's 2020 pivot to recognise Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, has become a staunch ally of the Moroccan cause, benefiting from its military aid and that of its allies (Israel). Such a limitation may be useful for Spain in trying to enlist the US as a mediator to try to find ways to redirect the bilateral relationship between Spain and Morocco. Being deprived of valuable US military aid to show muscle vis-à-vis the Polisario Front and Algeria is likely to have an effect on Morocco, which will try to boost the validity of its autonomy plan in order to satisfy Washington's wishes regarding the provision of military aid. The recent meeting in Washington between Albares and Antony Blinken where both agreed to "join forces" to seek a solution to the conflict is a good first step by Spanish diplomacy to try to find a solution to its relationship with Morocco. If the US maintains its conditions on Moroccan military aid it is likely to play a key role in influencing Morocco to try to improve its relations with Spain.

There is also one option that Spain could consider to make progress in improving relations with Morocco: the monarchy. King Felipe VI's words at the reception for the diplomatic corps accredited in Spain (where the Moroccan ambassador was absent) urging both countries to 'walk together' and 'start to materialise the new relationship now' indicate that the royal power views the current state of Spanish-Moroccan relations with concern. A meeting between the two monarchs, such as a bilateral summit, could be the trigger for the beginning of a thaw between the two countries. The influence of a royal meeting cannot be underestimated if we bear in mind that in Morocco the word of the Alawi king has an influence on Moroccan politics. If Mohammed VI decides that relations with Spain need to be redirected, it is very likely that the government will follow suit, resulting in an opportunity to improve relations between the two countries.

In conclusion, 2022 begins with Spanish-Moroccan relations at a stalemate, with both sides having taken no significant steps to improve relations since last year's crisis. In the face of this inaction, other countries are making moves. In Germany, the coalition cabinet led by the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz gave its approval to the Moroccan proposal to resolve the Saharawi conflict. In this way, a government of the same colour as Spain's and with the same diplomatic conflict with Morocco is making progress in resolving the situation. On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States, a great ally of the Moroccan cause, has just made its military aid conditional on the search for a political solution acceptable to both parties. Such a decision, which would limit US military aid to Morocco, may help Spain to use Washington as a mediator to reorient bilateral relations between Morocco and Spain. This week's meeting between the two foreign ministers and the decision to join forces to find a solution to the Saharawi conflict are good steps indicative of a mutual desire to resolve the situation. Finally, we cannot ignore the real option, which can result in the initiation of a thaw and sometimes succeed in influencing conflict resolution.

If we fail to reorient our relationship with Morocco, it is very likely that Spain will suffer, either through new waves of migration through Ceuta, Melilla and the Canary Islands or by losing business and investment opportunities in the Alawi country, which are key to the Spanish economy and the promotion of the Spain Brand. It is urgent to resolve our relationship with Morocco so as not to lose Spain's closest neighbour through its southern border