Saudi Arabia-Iran: the beginning of the thaw?

While Europe looks with concern towards the Polish-Belarusian border in what will most likely become the second refugee crisis, a development has been made public in the Middle East that will almost certainly affect the region's security: the acknowledgement by Saudi Arabia and Iran that they have been in talks since April to improve their relations. What at first glance appears to be a mere bilateral issue is in fact of the utmost importance for the stability of the Middle East. Both countries support opposing sides from Yemen to Lebanon. This support for their pawns has not only worsened already poor relations, but also contributed to destabilising the region, making it more likely that terrorist groups will take advantage of this instability to cause chaos in the region. 

Given this phenomenon, it is worth asking what has led the two countries - political and religious enemies - to enter into negotiations. In this regard, it is particularly relevant to understand Riyadh's decision, as at first glance it seemed unlikely that it would take this path. Unlike the economically weak and sanctioned Iran, Saudi Arabia has a buoyant economy and Western backing. However, the unsuccessful conflict in Yemen, the Biden administration's lukewarm support for the House of Saud and the resumption of nuclear talks between Iran and the international community are likely behind the Saudi decision.

Saudi Arabia and Iran play out their rivalry across the Middle East: in Yemen, Saudi Arabia is fighting Iranian-backed Houthi rebels; in Syria, Assad is backed by Tehran and Riyadh has supported the opposition; in Lebanon, Hezbollah is the enforcement arm of Iranian ambitions in Beirut, while Saudi Arabia backs the Sunni prime minister. This puppet war has only destabilised the region, Syria being the most disastrous example. However, Iran, which a priori had everything to lose due to its delicate economic situation, has fared better. Hezbollah is stronger than ever in Lebanon, Assad remains in power and the Shiites have clout in Baghdad. The Saudi intervention in Yemen, which was supposed to be swift, has created a serious humanitarian crisis, the Houthis control almost the entire country and humiliated Saudi Arabia, which in 2019 saw a drone launched from Yemen temporarily cripple its oil production. Tehran's resilience and the futility of the Yemeni conflict are likely to have influenced Saudi Arabia's decision to negotiate with Iran in order to avoid a costly war in terms of lives and materials, where Iranian mediation is likely to get the Houthis to reach a pact to end the war. 

The Biden administration's disinterest in Middle Eastern affairs may have helped push Saudi Arabia to talk to Iran. Unlike Donald Trump, who was unwavering in his support for Riyadh from opposing the Iranian nuclear deal to saying nothing when journalist Jamal Khashoggi was hacked to death in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Joe Biden has shown disinterest. A case in point is the discussions in the White House about sending offensive weapons to Riyadh, under the pretext that they can be used in Yemen, something the US would most certainly dislike. Such discussions did not occur when Trump was president.  

The revival of the Iranian nuclear deal dialogue, scheduled for 29 November, is also likely to have influenced the Saudi decision. Should a return to the status quo that existed before Trump came to power be achieved, it is very likely that Iran would rejoin the international community. An Iran without nuclear ambitions would not be perceived as a threat to the West, an argument that underpinned Saudi Arabia's fight against Iran. It will also reinforce US disinterest in the region, which will mean that Riyadh will not have carte blanche to do as it pleases. Repairing relations with Iran appears to be the best option in the face of the risk of losing influence and relevance in the Middle East. 

In conclusion, Saudi Arabia and Iran, arch-enemies in the Middle East, have engaged in talks to improve their relations. While Iran's motives for doing so are well known, the Saudi decision is surprising. Iran's growing weight in the region, the costly war in Yemen, the revival of the nuclear dialogue with Iran and US disinterest have pushed Riyadh in this direction. It will now be necessary to keep an eye on the evolution of contacts, which will be conditioned by the nuclear dialogue.