Libya: an endless night

Germany, Morocco, Egypt, Switzerland, ...the route of the Libyan talks seems endless. Last week, it was at the small resort of Bouznika in Morocco that negotiations continued on this endless war.  

From the beginning, Morocco had been on the side of a way out of the inter-Libyan crisis without taking part in the war. Furthermore, it was in Skhirat-about 26 km south of the capital, Rabat-where the Libyan dialogue led to Sarraj's investiture as head of the National Unity Government in 2015.   

In Bouznika it was welcomed that the delegations of Libya's High Council of State and the Parliament in Tobruk reached "a comprehensive agreement on transparent and objective criteria and mechanisms for occupying sovereign positions". These include key positions such as those of the Central Bank, the head of the Anti-Corruption Commission, the chairman of the High Electoral Commission, the attorney general and the president of the Judicial Council.

For its part, the UN is insisting on holding elections as the only way to bring peace to the country that is being torn apart, and "the establishment of a democratically elected parliament within a constitutional framework would be the last step towards stability in Libya, which is a decision that belongs to the Libyan people," said the UN envoy to Bouznika, Stephanie Williams.

Far from the official statements and on the ground, the misery of the people is great and the weariness is general. The war in Libya unites and divides the East and the West. Everyone, in search of support and allies, is investing according to their needs in this conflict zone with countless fractures.

The country is currently split between a government from the east and the powerful man from Cyrenaica, General Haftar, and that of the National Union led by Sarraj and recognised by the UN, but which carries the flag of the Muslim Brotherhood and is supported by Erdogan's friend.  

But it would be an illusion to believe that this conflict is so clear. It has countless ramifications and grey areas to which international interference is added. A few days ago, the pro-Haftar government in eastern Libya resigned, expelled by popular protests.  

It should be remembered that Haftar - a retired former general - and his troops are not recognised by the international community. But the strongman from the east is the cornerstone of this war and after 8 months of stopping the oil production, he announced the lifting of the blockade for one month: "We are ready to open the oil fields for one month, to ensure the future of Libya". A decision that has delighted the UN, which participates in the negotiations.  

A resolution that must satisfy above all the local populations who have recently demonstrated to denounce the difficult living conditions and corruption that are pushing Haftar to abandon.  Since then, oil production has resumed and the possibility of export and local electricity production has been announced with great pomp and circumstance.  

It is therefore in this difficult context and with what is at stake that the president of the Tobruk parliament, Aguila Saleh, came to Morocco to negotiate.  In this conflict, oil is the holy grail that everyone is fighting for. And it is not enough to declare a ceasefire and resume production; the country's wealth must be shared.  

The eastern government had announced on 18 September that it had reached an agreement to share the black gold. A welcome decision for both camps and especially for Libyans, even though it remains far from the country's production capabilities. At its peak, Libya was producing 1.2 million barrels per day, compared to only 100,000 at present. 

Another element that makes the war in Libya complex is the presence of the militias that took part in the fighting from very early on. The French private military company, Secopex, was one of the first to operate in Libya's conflict zones after the fall of Muammar al-Qadhafi in 2011 and since then international interference has never ceased.  

Sarraj has the support of Ankara and Qatar, and everyone knows that its troops are made up of the Libyan Fajr (Libyan Dawn) militias. It would be useful to specify that this coalition of armed groups is Islamist in obedience. Haftar, for its part, has the support of the opposite axis of the Muslim Brotherhood, that is, Egypt-United Arab Emirates-Saudi Arabia; and its militias are mostly Sudanese and Chadian.  

In July the Sudanese forces announced that they had arrested 160 militiamen who were going to fight in Libya.  According to a UN report published in December 2019, several armed groups from Sudan and Chad, Libya's neighbours, took part in the fighting in that country in 2019, together with Marshal Haftar, but also with the GNA (Government of National Unity).  

France, which was behind the fall of the Gaddafi regime, is, of course, part of the Libyan chessboard and has not finished playing on both fronts. Although it "officially" aligned itself with the UN positions, it did not hesitate to support Haftar even though it continues to deny this coup-plotting approach.  

Is the resignation of the eastern government and Fayez Sarraj's announcement of his intention to leave office at the end of October a wind of change blowing over the battered country or is it a new wave of unrest and endless nights?  Clearly, Libya has not yet found its way to peace.