Will Biden change its policy in the Middle East?

"I was happy when Donald Trump ousted Hillary Clinton in 2016, and I don't forget who Joe Biden is," an Iraqi friend told me after the global jubilation that followed the ouster of the outgoing US president. 

Those who follow the news in the Middle East know that Joe Biden played an important role in the invasion of Iraq under President Bush and that he voted for the war. The Senator at the time had these words that history will remember, "I don't think this is a rush to war (...) I think it's a march towards peace and security. I think that not supporting this resolution massively will probably increase the prospects for war ...". The aftermath is well known, from the hanging of Saddam to the chaos in Iraq that gave birth to Daesh and other extremist groups...that nobody imagined at the time.  

On the other hand, those who counted under American isolationism under Trump, were disappointed. 

In four years in office, the sulphurous American president succeeded in isolating Palestine from the Arab world in favour of Israel. The discreet rapprochements between the Arab Emirates, Sudan or Bahrain and Tel Aviv have turned into real alliances, and Ramallah had cut off bridges with Washington under the Trump administration. 

But is it permissible for the Palestinians to keep hope with the arrival of Joe Biden ?  President Mahmoud Abbas hastened to greet the new tenant of the White House and said he was "looking forward to working with the elected president and his administration to strengthen relations to guarantee the freedom, independence, justice and dignity of the Palestinian people", calling for the resumption of negotiations. 

But Mahmoud Abbas' diplomatic rhetoric deceives no one and certainly not his fellow citizens who know that no matter the colour of the American president, blue as well as red are synonymous with support for Israel. Donald Trump did not bother with UN resolutions and gave Israel the green light to annex East Jerusalem, which could lead to a third intifada.  Will Joe Biden be able to challenge his predecessor's decisions regarding recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights? Nothing is less certain! He would first have to want to. As soon as the results of the vote were announced, Benyamin Netanyahu congratulated his friend Joe : " We have known each other for nearly 40 years, our relationship is warm, and I know that you are a great friend of Israel. I look forward to working with both of you to further deepen the special alliance between the United States and Israel. »

America is an undeniable partner of Israel. It is a state position that neither Joe Biden nor any other American president will be able to return to. Even if Kamala Harris, the new American Vice-President had declared " We will restore aid to the Palestinians, renew the links " she also made it known that her support for Israel remains undeniable and indisputable. In calir, things will not have to change for the Palestinians. 

Among those who shone by their absence to congratulate the Biden/ Harris couple, Mohammed Ben Salmane. The Saudi Crown Prince hesitated before congratulating the new American president as much as his Brazilian and Mexican counterparts. Trump's support in Riyadh was the greatest during his four-year reign and Saudi Arabia has not forgotten his support during the war they had started in Yemen. 

But if there is a big construction site in the Middle East awaiting the Biden-Harris tandem, it is that of Iran. 

In the Islamic Republic, the hopes are high and they are expressed by the high echelons of the State. Iranian President Hassan Rohani said that "the future American government now has an opportunity to make up for past mistakes and return to the path of adherence to international commitments and respect for international law". 

The pressure exerted by the Trump government on Iran has led it into a serious economic crisis. It should be remembered that in 2015 the jubilant Iranians had signed the Vienna Agreement with the major economic powers including the United States, France, China, the United Kingdom and Germany. An agreement that allowed them to breathe and gain momentum after years of embargo.  In exchange, Iran was to curb its nuclear activities. But Trump had withdrawn from these agreements, which plunged the Washington-Tehran axis into a new crisis. 

On this issue, Biden was reassuring and promised to resume the voice of diplomacy.

A path he knows well. The man of 76 has been practicing it since he was 26 years old. And if he intends to break with the muscular methods of his predecessor, his foreign policy in the Middle East will remain on many aspects similar to Trump's, but unlike the latter he will take the forms and knows the art and the way of passing the pill.