Climate change: a reality today
Rarely has a report had as much impact as the sixth assessment report produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Last Monday the first conclusions of this report were released, and all the media echoed them. For once, climate change made the front page of every newspaper. And no wonder. The document leaves no room for doubt: climate change is no longer a problem of the future, but a reality of the present.
The IPCC was established in 1988 to comprehensively assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic knowledge on climate change, its causes, potential impacts and response strategies. This latest report has involved 234 experts from 66 countries, who over the past eight years have analysed more than 14,000 academic papers on climate change. The result is a comprehensive document that not only analyses the current causes and impacts of climate change, but also proposes different scenarios that humanity could face in the coming decades.
The data presented in the report are not at all favourable. It predicts an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, which could double the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It also predicts a rise in global temperatures, and a consequent rise in sea levels, as well as an increased likelihood of extreme weather events, such as the heatwave that hit Canada with temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius, or the one that has currently engulfed Greece in flames.
According to the report, by 2050 we could have already exceeded the limit agreed six years ago in Paris, according to which the signatory countries committed themselves to preventing global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. The most likely scenario, however, is that even 2 degrees Celsius will be exceeded. Thereafter, the temperature will not be brought under control "unless there are deep cuts in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades". In the IPCC's worst-case scenario, in which emissions are held constant in the coming years, global temperatures could rise by as much as 4.4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
In any of these scenarios, the outlook is not good: the coming decades will see a continuation of the climate catastrophes we have been seeing for some years now. The climate will become increasingly unstable, and the future of the coming generations will not be assured. The evidence is irrefutable. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated that "greenhouse gas emissions are choking our planet and putting billions of people at risk. Global warming is affecting all regions of the Earth and many of the changes are irreversible. We must act now to avoid a climate catastrophe".
This call for action concerns everyone: governments, businesses, and citizens around the world, who, according to the report, are solely responsible for this situation. "It is an unequivocal fact that human activity has warmed the atmosphere, the ocean and the land. Widespread and rapid changes have occurred in the atmosphere, the oceans, the cryosphere and the biosphere," the report states. It is therefore imperative that governments act urgently. However, the political will to make drastic changes that can actually have an impact on climate change has been lacking in recent years. Now, this report, which shows the responsibility of human action, could be used to prosecute all those governments that refuse to take steps to mitigate (not reverse, it is too late for that) the problem.
All eyes will therefore be on the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), which will take place in November this year in Glasgow, Scotland. The pressure for governments to take responsibility and propose robust action is now more evident than ever.