Ukraine and cereal production: consequences of the war in the MENA region

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is already having major consequences for the global economy. Gas prices are soaring in Europe, markets are volatile, and many supply chains have been disrupted. While it will have a more immediate impact on European markets, its effects will soon be felt in North African and Middle Eastern countries, which will have to deal with consequences that will be more catastrophic because of their greater dependence on imports from Russia and Ukraine.

Ukraine's eastern region, which has been under Russia's sights for years, is also the most fertile area, growing the cereals that feed entire populations in Africa and Asia. Although Ukraine's largest exports include cereals such as maize and barley, it is its wheat production that is likely to have the greatest negative impact. In 2020, Ukraine produced 4% of the world's wheat production, and Russia 10%. Together, they produce almost as much wheat as the entire EU.

Among the countries most dependent on Russian and Ukrainian wheat and other cereal production is Egypt, the world's largest importer of wheat. Nearly 70 per cent of its consumption comes from these countries. The current conflict could have serious consequences for Egypt, where food prices have been rising for months. It could also have serious consequences for Turkey, which imports almost 75% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine and is in the midst of a severe economic crisis, with inflation at over 48%. In addition to wheat, Ukraine's main exports include maize and vegetable oils. Lebanon, which is suffering one of its most severe economic slumps, is also heavily dependent on Ukrainian exports.

The conflict will reduce production capacity in both Russia and Ukraine and lead to disruptions in supply chains, resulting in global grain shortages. This will be compounded by a rise in energy prices, and therefore all commodity prices, caused by the impact of the sanctions that the international community is imposing against the Kremlin. Although the problem is set to worsen, the International Monetary Fund has already reported that between April 2020 and December 2021, the price of wheat will rise by 80 per cent. The big problem is that the countries that are most dependent on wheat or maize produced in Europe are those that have the least resilience, and are therefore most at risk of food insecurity. This is the case of Yemen and Libya, which import 22 per cent and 43 per cent respectively of their total wheat consumption from Ukraine.

The region of North Africa and the Middle East has been suffering from severe droughts for years, which, coupled with a lack of technological development, has forced the governments of the countries that make up the region to depend on food imports to feed their populations. Together with a growing population and less arable land, it is an area that already has a large number of malnourished people.

At a time when the world's population is thinking of nothing but war, it is essential that governments and international organisations anticipate the consequences of the conflict not only for Russia, Ukraine and the surrounding countries, but also for the people who will suffer the long-term consequences. A start must be made on redirecting supply chains to ensure that the countries most in need continue to have access to grain at a reasonable price. This will require action by countries such as the United States, Canada, Australia and the European Union itself to ensure that supply is not disrupted and that energy prices, and therefore food prices, do not continue to rise.

Conflict is still the main cause of hunger in the world today. In the face of the invasion of Ukraine, the international community has mobilised to show its support for both the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian government. We must ensure that this support is also translated into tangible measures to prevent the war from having even more consequences.