2025 will be a year marked by geopolitical tensions
On 1 January, the Russian company Gazprom issued a statement describing the measure as historic, while the Ukrainian president, Volodymir Zelenski, pointed out that twenty-five years ago, Russia pumped gas through Ukraine to Europe, a total of 130 billion cubic metres, and that today, in 2025, this transit is zero.
In the middle of winter, Europe is trying to avoid energy supply problems in the heating months, at least until May, with the thaw marking the advance of spring. Much of the inflation that the European continent has experienced in the last couple of years has derived from the cost of energy, which has ended up impacting the entire supply chain.
It is precisely the war in Ukraine, as well as the military conflicts in Israel and the Middle East, that will continue to have the greatest impact on the international environment. Nor will there be fewer conflicts in the pipeline to pay special attention to: Georgia, South Korea, Taiwan, Syria and the recent conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It will not be a quiet year, each has its own peculiarities and the feeling persists that there are increasing difficulties, especially in terms of preserving peace and strategic balances.
On 20 January, Donald Trump's return to the international stage, once he is sworn in as President of the United States, is the event that analysts are already anticipating as the most far-reaching in the global village. His first administration (January 2017 to January 2021) was marked by a profound tariff war against China and threats to leave NATO to the detriment of European allies. It was also the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic emergency, for which the WHO issued an alert on 11 March 2020.
With the return of Trump and his new threats to intensify the tariff war against China, but also to extend it to Mexico, Canada and its European allies, the outlook for world GDP for 2025 will be modified by international organisations as long as Trump complies with his impositions.
So far, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains an estimate of 3.2% growth for the world in 2025, which is the same figure expected for GDP in 2024. And it will tend to fall as international trade faces a series of vicissitudes.
The international body itself warns of the enormous geopolitical risks that threaten stability and the future of the coming months.
Trump promised in his campaign that his first international intervention will be related to a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, at a negotiating table, the date of which is not set, although it could take place at the end of February or March in Switzerland.
Before the end of the year, the Republican appointed retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg as special envoy for Ukraine and Russia with the aim of ending the war.
Kellogg was chief of staff of the White House National Security Council during Trump's first term and security adviser to then-Vice President Mike Pence. While he has already been in contact with Zelenski, he has not yet been in contact with the Kremlin.
There is much uncertainty surrounding these negotiations and the ability to generate a ceasefire without Ukraine eventually ceding 30 per cent of its territory to Russia.
All of this translates into risks and mistrust about an international environment full of shocks, which is why the IMF remains ‘modestly positive’ about the new year.
And, in this interplay of forces, we will have to pay close attention to the economic performance of both the United States and China. The two antagonists that most influence the geo-economy.
The IMF's 2024 US GDP growth forecast for 2024 was raised to 2.8 per cent while the 2025 US GDP growth forecast for 2024 was lowered to 2.2 per cent.
For China, IMF forecasts are less positive: China's 2024 GDP forecast was lowered to 4.8 per cent and, for 2025, it is forecast at 4.5 per cent.
The international body warns that an intensification of tariffs to hinder Chinese trade in its exports to the United States, as Trump intends, will result in a lowering of the outlook for Chinese economic growth.
The Asian giant has the economy most affected by the health impact of the pandemic. In 2019, its GDP grew 6.1% and from 2020, with the declaration of the health alert, it fell to 2.1%, then recovered to 8% in 2021 but fell again to lower rates in the following years.
The return of Trump
Donald Trump's return to power in the White House and on the international scene will be accompanied by a group of oligarchs such as Elon Musk, founder of Tesla, SpaceX and owner of the social network X.
Musk will be in charge of the new Department of Government Efficiency, co-directing it with another billionaire: Vivek Ganapathy Ramaswamy, the 38-year-old from a Hindu family, openly liberal and nicknamed the Trump millennial. Both businessmen intend to revolutionise public administration by cutting subsidies and closing almost a hundred public service institutions.
While Trump is known for his ways, this time he will return to the White House, with the experience he has already had, knowing well how far he can really go. He already knows the ins and outs of power.
The tycoon's own personality brings a dose of unpredictability to both his politics and his decision-making. Israel's own prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, wants Trump to support him in waging war against Iran and overthrowing the ayatollahs' regime, something the president-elect does not dislike.
Meanwhile, here in Europe, there is considerable concern about Trump's decisions on aid to Ukraine, and there is some nervousness about his intention to withdraw his nearly 36,000 troops from various bases in Germany. In fact, he tried to do so during his previous presidency and it is not ruled out that he might push again (as punishment) for German support for the Ukrainian cause.
It will be vital for the EU to have a seat at the future ceasefire negotiating table. Europeans stake their future security against an expansionist Putin.
European cohesion will largely depend on the future of the ailing Franco-German front whose governments face a schism and whose economy is mired in despair. Both Macron and Scholz are each gripped by the shadow of the far right, which is rubbing its hands together to storm the skies of power. It will undoubtedly be a pivotal year for the EU.