Between friction and reproaches

There are geographical areas in the world that are the subject of disputes between two or more nations, whether for historical reasons or geostrategic interests, as in the case of Ukraine and its friction with Russia.

Many are conflicts over territorial or maritime boundaries, as well as over islands, islets or rocks, and there are open disputes between several countries over their control.

In the midst of escalating tension and uncertainty surrounding the event, the Russian navy's Pacific fleet spotted a US submarine head-on just off the Kuril Islands.

There has been a dispute between Russia and Japan for 76 years. As a result of the Second World War, the then USSR appropriated four islands - thanks to the Yalta declaration - which form part of this archipelago made up of 56 other islands.  It boasts a privileged strategic location in the Sea of Okhotsk that serves as a base for Russian submarines. 

So far, friction continues as Tokyo claims them for its own, while the United States presses Russia to return them and the European Parliament has a resolution entitled EU-China-Taiwan Relations, Security in the Far East urging the Kremlin to leave the occupied islands.

It was in these waters that the most recent military friction was reported by the Russian Ministry of Defence: "On 12 February at 10:40 Moscow time a US Navy submarine of the Virginia class was detected near Upur Island in the Kuril Islands. When the submarine refused to surface, the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov used appropriate means to force the American vessel to leave the area".

A little over six weeks ago, Russia began a series of military exercises by land, sea and air that have involved the mobilisation of a considerable number of brigades of its army; the figures are inaccurate because the United States speaks of 100,000 Russian soldiers, plus 30,000 who have reportedly arrived in Belarus.

However, newspapers such as the New York Times warn that intelligence information suggests that more than 175,000 Russian troops are deployed in readiness for an imminent attack.

On 1 February an emergency meeting of the Security Council took place and there Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's high representative to the UN, demanded proof from the US of the reported deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops. No one showed any satellite images.

For the Kremlin, these are military exercises planned months in advance and include manoeuvres with Belarus, China and Iran in different parts of Eurasia.

Russia's military infrastructure is focused on its exercises in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, Baltic Sea, Pacific Ocean and Persian Gulf in conjunction with China and Iran.

In Europe, a psychosis has been unleashed by Russia that has led to the withdrawal of non-essential diplomatic personnel from the United States, the United Kingdom, Latvia, Israel and Denmark, with calls for their respective nationals to leave Ukraine in view of the proximity of the invasion, the date of which, as confirmed by the president himself, Volodymir Zelenski, was scheduled for 16 February. Even the Spanish Foreign Ministry recommended that their compatriots consider "very seriously" the possibility of returning from Ukraine as soon as possible and advised against travelling to the country.

After the last telephone conversation between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin on Saturday 12 February, the Kremlin accused the United States and the West of hysteria, while the White House reported that the US president warned his Russian counterpart that he was ready to move on to other scenarios.
 
"A new Russian invasion of Ukraine would produce widespread human suffering and diminish Russia's standing. We believe in the diplomatic track, but we are equally prepared for other scenarios in which the United States, together with its allies, will impose swift and severe sanctions," Biden said.

Yuri Ushakov, Putin's adviser on international affairs, took the position from Moscow: "The escalation on the issue of the invasion was carried out in a coordinated manner. The hysteria has simply reached its climax".

What is it about Ukraine that has triggered tensions between the powers at this level? For Russians it is the origin of Kievan Rus' - the very essence of the Slavic spirit - and Russia cannot understand itself without Ukraine.

In the European backyard it serves as the last frontier of the West facing Belarus and Russia and has important outlets to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, but it also has the Dnieper River whose flow it shares with Belarus and Russia. It is an economy that is one of the world's largest exporters of grain and also has pipelines that connect Russia to the transport of energy products.

In particular, there is the Druzhba pipeline: the longest in the world, its construction dates back to 1964, when the USSR devised how to transport its oil from Siberia, the Urals and the Caspian Sea to the Soviet zone of influence in Eastern Europe, but did not exclude supplying it to Western Europe.

It has a transfer capacity of 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels per day and Putin has planned to increase its capacity, with construction work underway in Belarus and proposals being considered in Germany.