Biden returns from Middle East empty-handed

Back to the clouds. The reaction of oil prices on the international market has shown that the United States' approach to recalibrate its alliances with several Middle Eastern countries has not achieved its initial purpose: not all of them want to take a stand in favour of contributing to the defence of Ukraine against the Russian invasion and not all of them are willing to pump oil to help lower prices.

On 9 July, President Joe Biden wrote an article to the Washington Post in which he explained to the public all the reasons for his trip to Israel, the West Bank, Saudi Arabia and a meeting with the Gulf states. In the article, Biden reiterated that he would "use all his diplomacy" with them.

"A more secure and integrated Middle East benefits Americans in many ways. Its waterways are essential to global trade and the supply chains we depend on. Its energy resources are vital to mitigating the impact on global supplies of Russia's war in Ukraine. And a region that unites through diplomacy and cooperation, rather than separates through conflict, is less likely to breed violent extremism that threatens our homeland or new wars that could impose new burdens on America's military forces and their families," he wrote.

With his published letter, Biden sought to quell criticism of his choice to meet with Mohammed bin Salman, the controversial Saudi prince suspected of being behind the heinous murder of Jamal Kashoggi, a journalist and critic of the Saudi regime. At the time, Biden openly condemned Bin Salman's meddling he did during his 2018 election campaign and vowed to make a pariah of Saudi Arabia.

"I know there are many who disagree with my decision to travel to Saudi Arabia. My views on human rights are clear and longstanding and fundamental freedoms are always on the agenda when I travel abroad, as they will be during this trip, just as they will be in Israel and the West Bank," he argued in his written statement.

The puzzle of the Middle East has never been easy or comfortable, with the Middle East having become a powder keg for decades with disputed territories, fighting between Muslim factions (Sunni versus Shia); geographical enmities between neighbours and old quarrels in the heat of the interests of powers such as the United States, Russia while China applies its silent policy of entering the regions by opening the tap of infrastructure investments and trade partnerships. Magna pecunia.

As a result of the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops and the response of the United States, the European Union (EU) and other countries have applied a series of severe sanctions against Russia, which is also a major supplier of oil but mainly gas to Europeans. There is a new bubble in the oil market, in practically all commodities, with a considerable escalation affected by the collateral effects of the Russian war, market disruptions, climate change and alterations between supply and demand.

Of concern is not only the lack of supply of Ukrainian grains and other foodstuffs produced by Ukraine, but also those supplied by Russia, which are not reaching the countries as they normally did before 24 February, the day the invasion of Ukraine began.

The alterations in oil prices are dismaying, hitting the importing countries and those most dependent on this fossil fuel to the point of suffocation, weighing down expectations of economic growth and fuelling inflation that will end up eating away at people's purchasing power and workers' wages.

While the veto on Russian oil - by sea or pipeline - has prospered since last June as agreed in the EU, it is Russia's turn to make a move in this complicated war and geopolitical chess game, and the Kremlin is beginning to reduce its gas sales to Europe, which is precisely its weak point.

What has happened? International analysts warned a month after the invasion began that the world energy market would enter a serious imbalance that could push prices to unprecedented levels if a veto or boycott was initiated by the United States and Europe.

Oil prices are sensitive to supply shocks, demand shocks, world events, natural disasters and wars. Once again, the price of a barrel is above 100 dollars, as it was 50 years ago, and threatens to rise further. Back to the cursed spiral.

As US President Joe Biden returned to the White House from his tour of several Middle Eastern countries, Brent crude oil was up 5.05 per cent at 106.27 dollars for September delivery, while West Texas crude was also above 100 dollars at 102.60 dollars, up 5.13 per cent.

Biden failed to convince the Arab countries, the main oil producers, to increase their oil production in order to deflate oil prices and give inflation a breather.

Oil as a weapon again. And a clear message to Biden and his allies who support Ukraine, because neither Israel, nor Saudi Arabia, nor any other Persian Gulf country has gotten involved and joined the sanctions against Russia. And it is as revealing to take a position as it is not to take a position. In geopolitics, everything adds up.

Biden's first gesture was to Israel. His predecessor in the White House, Donald Trump, maintained a very close relationship with the then prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, even on a personal level.

At the time, Trump made controversial decisions: in December 2017 he announced the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and in May 2018 he relocated the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. A move that inflamed Palestinians who claim Jerusalem as part of the Two-State Solution with East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state.

Trump also cut off funds sent by the US to the Palestinians - $360 million through the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).

With "Bibi" Netanyahu no longer in power, President Biden held a meeting with Yair Lapid, who has been Prime Minister since 1 July, in a country that has seen three elections since 2019.

Biden went to Israel to strengthen his relationship with a strategic partner in the Middle East that in recent months has seen its relationship with Russia deteriorate, also as collateral damage from the invasion of Ukraine. While Israel has been reluctant to get involved - it has not joined the sanctions - it did send Kiev helmets, waistcoats and supplies for the Ukrainian army, although it did not heed Zelenski's requests to borrow the Iron Dome air defence system.  Israel also voted in the Security Council to expel Russia from the Human Rights Council.

Taking advantage of this weakness in Russo-Israeli relations, the US intends to dissuade Iran from pursuing its intentions to obtain a nuclear bomb and from seeking a more active role with Russia by getting involved in the war against Ukraine. Iran and Russia have continued to move closer together to the extent that it has been reported in the international press that it will sell hundreds of drones to the Kremlin for use in Ukraine.

The White House has pursued an agenda in the Middle East that has been partially fulfilled because Biden has returned home without signing any major agreements with Saudi Arabia or the rest of the Gulf states, primarily on security and defence against Iran and progress in establishing Israel's relations with other countries in the region.

With Israel, he signed a joint agreement to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb, although Biden reiterated that he is willing to return to the negotiating table with Iran to reinstate the 2015 Nuclear Deal that Trump unilaterally abandoned three years after it was put in place.

"We have presented to Iran's leaders what we are willing to accept to return to the Agreement. We are waiting for their response. When will that come? I'm not sure. But we're not going to wait forever," said Biden, who also reiterated that for him the diplomatic track comes first.

He also travelled to the West Bank to meet in Bethlehem with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, to whom he reconfirmed his support for the Two-State Solution (the opposite of the Republican Trump's position) and reiterated that the Palestinian people "deserve their own state".

Before the president of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), the US president announced $201 million for UN programmes for Palestinian refugees. He also offered a $100 million plan to strengthen Palestinian hospitals.

The Palestinian leader asked Biden to remove the Palestine Liberation Organisation from the terrorist list and to approve the opening of a Palestinian office in Washington.

There is a tangle of intricate interests in the Middle East, and the region is also involved in several so-called hot conflicts: since 2011, the civil war in Syria, in which the interests of Russia, Iran, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States are at stake. Then there is Yemen, which is also the appetite of these countries.

The US has an interest in maintaining a strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia to counterbalance Iran's plans for a more dominant role in the region, backed by Russia.

Saudi Aramco produces 10.3 million barrels of oil per day; according to the US, it could have a margin of availability to pump up to 12 million barrels per day.

However, Biden failed to convince the Saudi regime to increase its daily production and Saudi Arabia's own energy minister Abdelaziz bin Salman believes that it will not be until 2026 or 2027 that the country will be in a position to increase production to 13.4 million barrels per day.

Biden has not secured more oil but also no concrete agreement with the Gulf states following the Jeddah meeting in Saudi Arabia on 16 July with the leaders of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Iraq, Oman, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the host country.

"The United States is committed to building a positive future in the region, in partnership with all of you. We will not go anywhere, and we will not stand back. We will not walk away, nor will there be a vacuum to be exploited by China, Russia or Iran," he said.

Arab leaders have listened to him but none have come out in favour of supporting the United States in its sanctions against Russia, nor have they shown support for Ukraine. None of them have backed Washington's ambitions for a grand regional security agreement, and not even the spectre of Iran has united them, with some countries such as the United Arab Emirates welcoming Russian capital as they flee the West.

The US imperialist policy faces a vacuum in the Middle East that does not forget everything that has happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. On the contrary, China is moving forward with its investments and its "friendly" policy of the New Silk Road.

The US speaks the language of war, defence, deterrence and creating fronts against China, Iran and Russia. Beijing's response comes in the form of investments in the Middle East: in Iraq it has invested 100 billion dollars in the construction sector and companies such as the Power Construction Corporation of China have plans to build a thousand schools; in Oman it has invested in the port of Duqm; in Iran it will invest 400 billion dollars in various infrastructure projects for the long term. But there is more investment injection in other countries in the region. The US faces a clear vacuum in the region.