Concern in Europe in light of the U.S. elections
Europe is aware that, in the November 5 elections in the United States, the future understanding with the White House is at stake in sensitive issues such as: the economic, commercial and strategic relationship between the United States and the European Union (EU); the defense of Europe and the prevalence of NATO; and the scenario of regional wars.
The positions of the two candidates on relations with the EU are also very different: Trump continues to accuse the EU of unfair market practices and has already warned that he is thinking of imposing a series of tariffs on European countries.
Europe, which is haunted by the strengthening of extreme right-wing ideology, fears that a new Trumpist government will give wings to Eurosceptic groups.
In any case, a Kamala Harris government would be more sympathetic and less aggressive towards the EU and would support transatlantic relations, although each would tend to protect its industrial base.
It is also true that the two candidates have opposing policies on energy and climate change. The EU is pursuing its policies of decarbonization and zero emissions.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's own advisors warn that a Trump administration would increase fossil fuel production, which would have a significant impact on the European energy market.
For that same reason, that the Democratic candidate Harris could reach the White House is seen as part of the interests of the EU government in its fight against climate change and low-carbon energy production. In other words, Washington would be closely aligned with Brussels on climate diplomacy.
And then there are other issues of enormous geostrategic importance and the EU wants to go hand in hand with its historic ally, for example, in view of the almost three-year invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops; the friction with China in the Indo-Pacific; the situation in the Western Balkans; and, of course, the military tension in the Middle East with Israel confronted with Hamas in Gaza; with Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the Houthis in Yemen and, above all, its military friction with Iran.
Just days before the elections, the Institute for Security Studies of the European Union (IESSUE) calls attention to the fractious domestic electoral climate prevailing in the American Union.
“The 2024 election cycle is already characterized by high levels of political tension; opinion polls consistently point to a high degree of political polarization and an erosion of trust in U.S. political institutions,” according to the European organization.
Hence, the immediate concern is about the very context of Election Day and the outcome of the elections: “A contested result could trigger a wave of political violence across the country and the Trump campaign is insisting on questioning the validity of the electoral process”.
This EU Agency in charge of analyzing foreign policy warns of the enormous possibility of a repeat of the assault on the Capitol as already happened on January 6, 2021 and of the harmful impact of disinformation among voters.
“Widespread violence in the U.S. would weaken the transatlantic relationship and could encourage unrest around the world. Can the EU develop a coordinated approach among member states to deal with contested election results and potential violence in the U.S.?” questions an IESSUE analysis.
In this regard, American writer McKay Coppins wrote for The Atlantic that after traveling in Europe in the spring, he found a sense of alarm bordering on panic at the prospect of Donald Trump's re-election present in almost every conversation Coppins had with various leaders and diplomats from Brussels to Berlin and from Warsaw to Tallinn.
Coppins remarks that the Europeans know they may lose their most powerful ally: “There is a pathologically intense fixation on the U.S. presidential race. European officials can explain the electoral college in granular detail and cite polling data from various battleground states.”
“Thomas Bagger, state secretary at the German Foreign Ministry, told me that in a year when billions of people in dozens of countries around the world will have the opportunity to vote, the one election in which all Europeans are interested is the American one. Almost every official I spoke to believed Trump was going to win,” Coppins remarked.
However, the scenario of the spring and summer is not the same as in the fall, the distance in points in the polls, between Democrat Harris and Republican Trump is very close: most polls talk about “a handful” of votes difference, in a handful of states and anyone can win.
To become president, whether Harris or Trump, a majority of electoral votes must be won: the number to reach is 270 and for that there are seven states at stake such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Here, in Europe, the perception is that anything can happen, as if it were a tombola, in which blue or red will come out and to that extent the immediate relations with the White House will be redefined. Trump is already known in power.
A few days ago, American anchor Rob Schmitz spoke with Markus Ziener of the German Marshall Fund, a Berlin-based public policy think tank. On that occasion, Ziener re-emphasized the two top international concerns for Europeans: keeping in sync on security and economic relations with the American Union.
“The Transatlantic Partnership is really a cornerstone and I think it has worked very well with Biden. So I understand the concern around those two big issues,” he reiterated.
As a German, Ziener recalled how strained the relationship between then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Donald Trump was on most geopolitical issues.
Impact on international relations
The US presidential election will have far-reaching consequences for the EU's own foreign policy. Their outcome will affect the course of Russia's war against Ukraine; the conflict in the Middle East; tensions in the Indo-Pacific; and the strength of transatlantic ties. Brussels must be prepared for whatever lies ahead.
How would a Trump or Harris presidency affect hotspots around the world? According to an IESSUE analysis, the old continent must prepare for a surprise that is more unpleasant than pleasant.
The immediately most sensitive point is Ukraine and the resistance it is waging against Russian encroachment in more than two and a half years of infighting. Trump is campaigning on a promise to end the conflict, almost twenty-four hours after he is confirmed to have been elected.
“While the details of his plan are unknown, it may well involve approaching Putin directly, negotiating a ceasefire, and conditioning assistance to Ukraine on Kiev's openness to negotiations. A presidency with Kamala Harris, on the other hand, would likely maintain Biden's policy toward Ukraine, which is to continue to provide assistance,” according to the research organization.
The second point that is also quite relevant for the Europeans has to do with the course of the war in the Middle East. Trump, who has always been quite close to Israel and especially to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has openly stated that he will support Netanyahu's defense policy and has not infrequently pointed out that the Palestinians are terrorists who must be eliminated.
“With Trump back in the White House it would open up the possibility of Israeli troops occupying part of Gaza and the approach in the region would be to revive the Abraham Accords. It should be remembered that Harris, has been more critical than Biden of Israel's warlike conduct and may be stricter in her handling of relations with Israel, but she would not apply an arms embargo”, in the opinion of this European agency.
This triangle also includes the recent tension with Iran: Trump is more in favor of a direct attack against Iran in order to provoke the fall of the Ayatollahs' regime.
If the Republican candidate wins the election, the prospect in Europe is that there will be a U.S.-Israeli confrontation against Iran and there is considerable concern given that it is not known what role NATO, as Washington's ally, would play.
On the other hand, with Kamala, if she wins, it is not expected that there will be a direct military confrontation with Iran or that she will seek to provoke a regime change.
But what about the Balkans? The European Union Institute for Security Studies predicts that a second Trump term could result in the normalization of economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina; and also “embolden” separatist and authoritarian-minded leaders in the region.
What would happen if Trump weakens NATO? This institute believes that the region would be plunged into chaos: “In contrast, the victory of Kamala Harris, would give continuity to Biden's policies in that region in search of balance”.
Finally, there is the issue with China, a country with several open economic and military fronts: “On the economic front, Trump has promised to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese products and Harris would continue with the trade measures and restrictions on the export of advanced technologies implemented by Biden”.
And, on the military line? Trump has openly stated that he would be willing to deploy more troops in the Indian-Pacific region, moving part of his contingent from Europe to Asia.
What is certain is that, should Trump return to the White House, the EU must prepare for a reduction of the US presence in Europe and also face a tariff battle because Trumpist protectionism believes that this is the way to make America great again.