A diplomatic crisis with Venezuela full of economic interests
On 11 September, in an unprecedented vote, the Popular Party managed to push through an initiative to recognise González Urrutia as the president of Venezuela, without the votes of the PSOE, the party of the current Spanish president, the Socialist Pedro Sánchez.
While the PP, accompanied by the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), supported the initiative, both the party of President Sánchez and his cabinet did not take a position on granting this recognition, objecting that it should be a decision agreed with the European Union.
There is no official recognition, neither by President Sánchez nor by the head of state, King Felipe VI, although Spain did participate in the process to facilitate the departure of González Urrutia and part of his family from Caracas to exile in the Iberian country. It did so after a safe conduct was negotiated between the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its Venezuelan counterpart, and approval was given for a Spanish army plane to bring the opposition leader and his family to Madrid.
Recently, the Venezuelan justice system ordered the arrest of the virtual Venezuelan president, after he ignored three summons sent by the Public Prosecutor's Office accusing him of publishing the electoral records on the Internet, with the aim of publicising the fraud committed by the dictator Nicolás Maduro.
It is precisely in Spain, especially in Madrid, where most of the opposition leaders live, who are also in exile and many of them have fled to avoid arrest.
There are politicians with prominent parliamentary careers such as Juan Guaidó, Julio Borges, Antonio Ledezma and Leopoldo López who continue to campaign against the Chavista regime inherited by Nicolás Maduro, among the large Venezuelan community based in Spain, of almost 400,000 people, and above all in European institutions.
‘Edmundo is safe in Spain and the leader elected in the Venezuelan primaries, María Corina Machado is leading the change and we are going to accompany them,’ Guaidó wrote on his X account.
Also, the former mayor of Caracas Antonio Ledezma made a statement to point out that González Urrutia, wherever he is, is the elected president of Venezuela.
A few days ago, I exclusively interviewed both the former president of the National Assembly, Julio Borges, and Ledezma, and participated in a videoconference with a small group of Spanish journalists to talk to María Corina Machado.
The opposition leader then stated that she would not leave Venezuela and that she would remain at the forefront of the active struggle to bring democracy to her country and seek a negotiated formula for Maduro to leave power.
‘There is fear. Every day many young people are being arrested and there are many disappeared for defending the election result. The fact that Diosdado Cabello is in charge of the Interior Ministry will not change our struggle in the streets,’ Machado said, to a question I asked her.
Diosdado Cabello, considered one of the pillars of chavismo, is known for his hard line and is part of the frontline circle of the Maduro government that is desperate to pacify the streets.
However, the fact that the leader of the Plataforma Unitaria Democrática (PUD) left Venezuela to avoid imprisonment has not gone down well with the thousands of Venezuelans living outside their country of origin because they consider that it shows weakness in the opposition forces and only contributes to strengthening Maduro.
At the New Economy forum, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, president of the Community of Madrid, was asked about this after speaking about the dangers of autocracies; and, in her opinion, it has been a bucket of cold water for the millions of Venezuelans living outside their country to see how the winner of the elections has left Venezuela.
However, politicians such as the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, publicly claim that González Urrutia has had to seek political asylum in the face of the increasing repression, political persecution and threats that Maduro's henchmen are carrying out across Venezuela.
Breaking off relations
Miguel Garrido, president of the Madrid Business Confederation (CEIM) argued that the proposal by the president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, to cut diplomatic and trade relations with Spain is absurd because the main victim would be, precisely, the Venezuelan business fabric.
According to data provided by the CEIM, the Iberian country is the third largest investment partner in Venezuela, after the United States and China; and, fundamentally, the volume of business is generated by oil. ‘Approximately 700 million euros a year, including oil, crustaceans, aluminium and ceramic products. Spain exports around 137 million euros in lubricants, clothing and oil to Venezuela’.
The most important thing is not trade, but the number of Spanish companies that have invested in Venezuela, and they come in all sizes: some major multinationals such as Telefónica, which has a workforce of 1,700 workers spread over various parts of Venezuelan territory, or BBVA, which has 300 bank branches and employs 3,500 people, mainly in Caracas.
How many Spanish companies operate in Venezuela? Icex España Exportación e Inversiones, in a recent report, revealed that 60 Spanish companies are currently established in Venezuela; that is, less than half of those operating in 2021, when they totalled 124 companies.
Following the Spanish Congress's decision to recognise González Urrutia as Venezuela's president-elect, Maduro's government did not sit idly by.
-All diplomatic relations, all commercial relations, all activities of a commercial nature by Spanish companies should be ceased immediately,’ threatened Jorge Rodríguez, president of the Venezuelan National Assembly.
Rodríguez affirmed that Maduro's government is considering a series of actions against Spain in retaliation for its support for González Urrutia: from breaking off relations to taking measures against some companies operating in its territory.
The first offensive took place a few days ago: the Venezuelan foreign ministry recalled its ambassador to Spain, Gladys Gutiérrez, for consultations, and at the same time summoned the Spanish ambassador to Caracas, Ramón Santos, for consultations.
While President Sánchez has remained cautious about recognising González Urrutia as president-elect, although he has received him at the Moncloa and offered him support during his political exile, it was the statements of the Minister of Defence, Margarita Robles, openly describing Maduro's regime as a dictatorship that unleashed the wrath of Maduro himself.
The Spanish foreign minister, José Manuel Albares, has tried to lower the tone of the tension: ‘These are sovereign decisions of each state, there is nothing to comment on; the government is working to have the best possible relations with the people of Venezuela... fraternal relations which, as with the rest of the Latin American countries, go much further than with any other group of countries in the world’.
Carlos Cuerpo, the Minister of Economy, Trade and Enterprise, is also sending messages of reassurance to the large multinationals established in Venezuela: ‘The government will defend their interests in the event that this should be necessary’.
‘Beyond the point we are at in terms of the diplomatic situation between the two countries, it is important to send a message of calm; let's hope that this situation can be redirected,’ said Cuerpo.
Accusations of destabilisation
In the midst of the diplomatic spat between Venezuela and Spain, Maduro's government has also accused the CIA and the National Intelligence Centre (CNI) of a plot orchestrated against him, following the arrest of two Spaniards, three Americans and a Czech citizen, whom it accuses of wanting to attempt an assassination attempt against Maduro.
Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello was in charge of making the announcement about the alleged international plot against the dictator Maduro.
On 14 September, the US State Department confirmed the arrest in Venezuela of a US military officer, and it appears that more Americans have been arrested.
‘The United States is directing this operation, Spain is the one that was going to supply the foreign mercenaries to carry out this operation,’ Cabello said in an interview with the Telesur channel.
The Venezuelan official asserted that the CNI was organising an operation involving French mercenaries whose mission was to take over Maiquetía International Airport in Caracas.
‘These groups seek to take control of the country's wealth and we as a government will respond firmly to any attempt at destabilisation,’ Cabello added.
For its part, the United States denied involvement in a plot against Maduro or any of his officials and urged the parties to seek a peaceful solution.
In turn, the Spanish embassy in Caracas has asked Maduro's government through a diplomatic note for more information on the Spanish citizens detained and the crimes they have allegedly committed. To date they have not received a reply.
Russia and China unconditional support
Maduro is mainly supported by the governments of China and Russia. He cares little about further or new economic sanctions, imposed by the United States or the European Union.
While in Europe there is talk of the process of ‘Cubanisation’ of Venezuela, in Russia and China his proximity to the South American country is a source of opportunities: on 23 and 24 October, in the Russian city of Kazan, the BRICS meeting will take place, and Maduro will be the star guest.
It is not ruled out that the Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin, will invite Venezuela to join the BRICS; this bloc formed by: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, as original partners, is living a phase of expansion including countries such as: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and United Arab Emirates that joined since last January 1.
Why is Venezuela so interesting? Russia has been one of the Chávez regime's closest allies. In 2006, with Hugo Chávez in power, an agreement was signed to supply arms, especially Russian fighter planes, in exchange for Russia's access to Venezuelan oil assets.
Then there is China, which has been Venezuela's other major financial crutch. Xi Jinping's government regards the Venezuelan regime as a geopolitical ally and an important trading partner. Over the past decade, Beijing has lent Caracas some $70 billion, mostly for development projects, in exchange for future oil shipments.
Analysts estimate that the Maduro regime owes China about $13 billion. China is second only to the United States and India as an importer of Venezuelan crude. And while Venezuela is deepening the cooling of its relations with several Western countries, it is accelerating its rapprochement with Russia and China. And, with Spain, it could even make good on its threats.