France is Europe's crisis of democracy

Macron

Democracy must be cared for as if it were another patient. Montesquieu already pointed out in the 18th century that democracy should avoid the spirit of inequality because it runs the risk of building governments in which not everyone is represented.

In France, three out of ten voters decided to stay at home in the second round of elections on Sunday 24 April, in which Emmanuel Macron endorsed his presidency after obtaining 18,779,809 votes with 58.5% support.

The French leader will remain in office for another five years but will do so under the shadow of the ultra-nationalist Marine Le Pen, who has once again closed the gap after obtaining 41.5% of the vote with 13,297,728 votes. The populist politician feels that the ultra-right is finally caressing the longed-for power in France, her results are much better than those obtained against Macron in 2017 - also in the second round - when he beat her by 32.2 points, after attracting 66.1% of the vote for his République en Marche!

This time, Macron won with fewer votes and a lower turnout because abstentionism grew to 28.2%, the worst figure since 1969.  While Le Pen got more support given that in 2017 she attracted 33.9% of the vote and in the joust last April 24 she had 7.6 points more and almost halved the gap between her and the centrist politician compared to 2017.

For political analyst Paul Taylor, there is no way to "breathe a sigh of relief" at Macron's re-election because the forces of Eurosceptic nationalism that so frighten Europe continue to clatter at the gates of the Elysée Palace.

Le Pen, he points out, is a far-right populist who has won an unprecedented share of the vote and she is hoping to do better and better.

A nation, France, built itself as a universal inspiration for a set of democratic values has a part of its society that has for several years now lost its fear of a far right that reliably blames all ills on immigration, globalisation and the European Union.

In these recent elections, in fact, abstention has been the winner which, added to the invalid votes, has left 16,922,463 sterile votes as a sign of citizen discontent. This is an eloquent and revealing action of the mood of the population that does not feel represented by either Macron or Le Pen.

There is a worrying indifference among the electorate, which did not care whether a pro-European or a Eurosceptic governed it in the next five years; whether a pro-globalisation person governed it or a conservative and localist one. That Le Pen might even follow the same path as the United Kingdom with its Brexit.

Indifference is always cold and painful, it has hit Macron hard and he has recognised this: "Your silence means a denial of the decision and we are also going to respond. I am also a repository of the divisions that were expressed today".

"I know that many of our compatriots voted for me today not to support the ideas that I carry but to block those of the extreme right. And I want to thank them here and tell them that I am aware that this vote binds me for the coming years," Macron said in his victory speech to supporters at Champ Mars with the Eiffel Tower showing its magnificence.

The Amiens-born politician affirmed that this new period, this five-year term, will not be the same as his previous government and reiterated - insistently - that he will govern for all while dedicating a few words to the citizens who voted for Le Pen. "I know that for many of our compatriots, who today have opted for the extreme right, the anger and disagreements that led them to vote for this project must also be answered. This will be my responsibility and that of those around me," he said with enthusiasm.

For Le Pen, who came out with a huge smile, surrounded by her supporters who cheered her on near the Bois de Boulogne, the battle for power continues and will continue because she sees herself as the opposition to Macron's government at a sensitive moment with traditional political parties that, in her words, nobody wants.

The lawyer and activist analyses her results from the point of view of a loser who has significantly shortened her lead with a discourse that continues to be groundbreaking. "These results are a great victory because the battle is not over. We must look at the data with hope because what we have achieved today is a testimony to the confidence of the French and European leaders in the French people and their shared aspiration for a great change", the candidate said.

The leader of Rassemblement Nationale knows that her discourse has struck a chord with more people and that she has benefited from the indifference of such a high abstention rate because between choosing a black or white government, millions opted to stay at home.

"I fear that this coming five-year period will have unprecedented brutal practices and that Macron will do nothing to avoid the fractures that divide our compatriots," Le Pen declared.

A Le Pen victory is the worst thing that could have happened to France and the EU in the midst of the bloc's cohesion in the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, where sanctions are being discussed and imposed and the war occupation is being condemned.

Macron's triumph, his re-election, provides a temporary respite for the EU, which will sleep soundly again after the results are known, although no democracy can stand idly by in the face of the stalking of the far right.

For the French leader, his is a project for the future: "And it is humanist, ambitious, ecological, for the independence of our country and for a strong Europe".

Results under scrutiny

The first congratulations expressed by the various European leaders highlighted France's important role as the backbone of the club and the driving force behind many of the policies voted for in Brussels.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz used his Twitter account to congratulate President Macron: "Your voters also sent a strong commitment to Europe today. I am pleased that we will continue our good cooperation!

In turn, Charles Michel, President of the European Council, tweeted: "Congratulations, dear Emmanuel Macron. In these difficult times, we need a strong Europe and a France fully committed to a more sovereign and strategic European Union".

More congratulations came from Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, who stressed "your great re-election" and the need for a strong France within the European Union to face the challenges of an increasingly uncertain and worrying world.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, expressed her wish to continue "our excellent cooperation" in which together "we will move France and Europe forward.

Pedro Sánchez, President of Spain, tweeted: "The citizens have elected a France committed to a free, strong and fair EU. Democracy wins. Europe wins. Congratulations.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, joined in the congratulations with a warm message: "Your tireless dedication will be sorely needed to tackle the challenges we are facing in Europe.

The France of liberty, equality and fraternity is a social and political thermometer of what is happening across the European spectrum, with a multicultural nation, where issues such as wearing the hijab, which Macron defends as part of his nation's freedom protected by the secular and republican constitution but which Le Pen is targeting with a referendum to ban it, have come into play.

There are flaws in the current mechanisms of representation. Macron is a young politician, 44 years old, his vision should therefore be closer to the millennial generation that continues to feel hurt by the 2008 crisis; by the crisis unleashed by the pandemic and now by the schism in commodity markets caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Le Pen, 53, is also young and as ambitious as she is to unite all colours of the right and will continue to work hard to win over the France forgotten by current public policies that orbits the countryside and marginal suburbs.

She has found - and increasingly so - a greater echo in the French overseas territories that feel very far from the policies of the Elysée, with an irritation that has favoured her with considerable votes in Guadeloupe (Le Pen 69.6% and Macron 30.4%); Martinique and French Guiana (she won with 61%); in St Barthélemy and St Martin (55.52%); in St Pierre and Miquelon (50.69%) and only in French Polynesia did Macron come out on top (51.81%).

"My special thanks go to our compatriots in the provinces and overseas territories who have put me in the lead in this second round, with an extraordinary strength that moves me. This France that is too forgotten, we do not forget it," Le Pen said in her post-election speech.

The challenge of governability

Democracy is undergoing convulsions not only in France but in many other countries with volatile, confused and rarefied times due to the war in Ukraine, the pandemic and the destruction of many values that unite and unify.

Macron is re-elected but runs the risk of having a weak government: the key date for determining the direction of governance in the coming years will be the legislative elections on 12 June 2022 and the outlook could be extremely complicated if the République en Marche! does not get the people out of their homes. Macron has won because indifference decided to stay asleep and because 42% of his co-religionists voted for him from the more or less moderate left of the France Insoumise party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

The war is not won, but it is won one battle at a time, and Le Pen knows that gaining control of the legislature is a strategic asset to consolidate a trench against Macron's policies.

"Tonight we are launching the great electoral battle of the legislative elections. I will fight this battle with all those who have the courage to oppose Macron," Le Pen declared before hundreds of her supporters.

There is no way to breathe easy in Europe for long, Paul Taylor remarked, because we have to keep our eyes on the next five years: "It is worth thinking about how France, the co-founder of the union and indispensable pillar, can avoid playing Russian roulette with the future of Europe every five years".

For the political analyst and writer, with the collapse of the two parties that dominated the politics of France's Fifth Republic since 1958, the centre-right Gaullists and the centre-left Socialists, the country is effectively left with a single lax pro-European centrist bloc on the one hand, and on the other is diffuse with erupting forces of anti-globalisation, anti-EU, anti-immigration nationalism and protectionism.

There is an emboldened anti-everything stance that will be determined to win as many seats as possible in the next legislative elections and is already looking forward to the 2027 campaign.

"In a democracy, power naturally tends to alternate between two major political camps. But French democracy has been hollowed out. This is partly due to an over-powerful elected presidency, which has reduced the parliament to a rubber stamp as long as the president has a majority in the National Assembly," according to Taylor.