German vs. Russian tanks: the damned dialectic

All that remains is for the United States and its allies to send troops to Ukraine and I don't know if it will come sooner or later because this war that started with an invasion is escalating to such an extent that it will end up dragging us all down. A few months ago it was unthinkable to talk about giving heavy weapons to Kiev... now it is a reality.

It will not be without consequences, at least not for a Kremlin that is methodical in gauging its response to the US and its allies, always looking for the weakest point.

As recently as last March, with the mediation of Turkey and France, the invasion could have been stopped, bringing Zelenski and Putin to the table for dialogue, negotiation and compromise. There is currently no scenario for such a possibility, not even a loophole, because the Russian dictator has not only violated the sovereignty of a nation, but has forcibly appropriated a territory that he has ordered to be included in the Russian Constitution, recognising it as his own and defending it to the death. 

The points are irreconcilable: Zelenski wants the return of this territory, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and a renegotiation involving various countries in order to act as guarantors and guarantors of a lasting peace so that Russia - in a few years' time - does not want to take over Ukraine again.

How will this war end on the one-year anniversary of the conflict on 24 February, after the United States, Germany, Poland and other countries give heavy weapons to Kiev?

There will be an escalation of risks because this hybrid war may persist at this point and Russia, through its intelligence services and the networks it has created with its funding of the far-right in other countries, will possibly seek to create hotbeds of political and social instability.

Tensions are its best weapon. Acting in the dark is its strategy through sabotage, acts of terrorism and fundamentally by stirring up old, stagnant conflicts in a Europe that has not yet fully reconciled.

My greatest fear is that Europe will be caught - again - between Washington's interests and those of the Kremlin and that it will be caught in another conflict within its territory without sufficient arms supplies because some of them have been sent to Ukraine. And that this transfer of military equipment falls into the hands of the Russians because that would mean the possibility of also copying this technology, which is one of the risks of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany sending the Ukrainians their weapons.

And as if it were a curse, German tanks will again be used to confront the invading Russian troops in Ukraine. Not even a century has passed since the last time German tanks clashed with Russian tanks during the Second World War... and here we go again. The dialectic of history continues to teach us hard lessons. 

According to data provided by the Council on Foreign Relations, it is known that Ukraine - in 2022 - received at least 47.9 billion dollars from the United States up to November.

The White House has been sending the following resources to Kiev: for humanitarian aid (9.9 billion dollars); another part for financial aid (15.1 billion dollars) and military assistance with armaments (22.9 billion dollars), which also includes a small part of credits for armaments. 

These resources do not count all the aid sent by other countries plus that given by NATO and the European Union (EU), and so far no one has asked Zelenski for a clear account. The fact that the country is under invasion and that we have an understandable solidarity against the invaders does not make it any less clear that Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world.

The Ukrainian president wants not a dozen, but more than 300 tanks and hundreds of armoured vehicles, this winter will be a long one. The Kremlin has decided to accelerate the conflict against all predictions of an understandable stalemate due to weather conditions.

With Putin, nothing can be taken for granted. And the EU sometimes seems to be lulled into the self-confidence that nothing can happen to it because the US is watching its back. Such confidence is disturbing.