Le Pen stalks France and the EU

The far-right in Europe continues to get the upper hand: catalysts for the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the elections taking place in various parts of Europe serve as a thermometer for measuring the support of pro-Russian groups in democratic countries.

Yesterday in France, the banlieue punished the current French president, Emmanuel Macron, by keeping more people at home and not going to the polls; abstentionism rose 4 points compared to 2017 and, incidentally, gave more votes to the far-right, Marine Le Pen, who is only 5 points behind a Macron who has won almost by chance this first round of elections.

There is concern that they will have to measure forces again in a run-off election on 24 April; as soon as the results were known, the left-wing candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, of the France Insoumise party, called on the people "not to give a single vote to Le Pen". Of the twelve candidates who contested, preliminary polls gave Macron 28.50% of the vote, Le Pen 23% and Mélenchon 21%; the far-right Éric Zemmour got 7%; the conservative Valérie Pécresse got 4.7% and the Spanish-French Socialist Party's Anne Hidalgo suffered a setback with 2%.

The contest closes between two juxtaposed forces: Macron's pro-European and progressive project with his République En Marche! against another nationalist but Eurosceptic one. This is a bitter pill to swallow for a European Union (EU) that is seeking cohesion in its decisions and positions in the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Macron has been penalised by the management of the pandemic, the persecution of anti-vaccinationists and many other groups reluctant to inoculate themselves with anti-COVID doses; there is also the economic impact of the pandemic that has punished the citizens of these suburbs, many of whom are immigrants, affected by a loss of purchasing power, with starvation wages and job insecurity.

The elections in France are being watched closely by other European countries, such as Spain, which will hold elections in two years' time and which have felt the blow of the pandemic, its effects and its management; and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its collateral damage and the EU's decisions. This negative picture is leaving two types of voters: one that has stopped voting and one that has become polarised. 

Whether Macron's centrist option survives for another term in government will depend on whether voters from the ultra-left, socialists, communists, conservatives and ecologists vote for him in the second round. 

Le Pen, with her National Rally, has swallowed up with her discourse both the electorate of the right and of the extreme right, her discourse has made an impression on the young vote, she has reached the millennial who feels victimized by the two crises, first the pandemic; second, the Russian invasion and the sanctions. 

The vote for Le Pen only confirms what the Ipsos poll released days before the elections: 53% of French people are worried about the economic shock and 44% about the war in Ukraine. 

Le Pen has been voted in by hunger, rage, anger, frustration and ostracism. It will not be easy, nor will the vote in the second round be comfortable for Macron, who will have to convince that his project deserves continuity. This also means that Putin will not get his way: a friend and promoter - as he is - of the ultra-right not only in France, but throughout Europe, because he has always wanted to break up the EU.

The recent elections in Hungary and Serbia were both celebrated by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, who congratulated the re-election of Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Aleksandar Vucic in Serbia.

Hungary, an EU member, has become the EU bloc's nuisance member with its sympathy for the Kremlin to such an extent that it opposes sanctioning Russian energy, has not participated in arms shipments to Ukraine and barely takes in refugees. 

Orbán has been re-elected for the fourth time. Putin has sent him congratulations via Telegram, welcoming the fact that Russia and Hungary's partnership can be strengthened in the future. 

In turn, Vucic won an important victory: he will remain for a second term at the helm of a Serbia that is not part of the EU, but is a candidate for membership. 

Meanwhile, in Spain, a new party has been born: Futuro, led by Javier Benavente Barrón, with the aim of including all people without discrimination of any kind. Benavente Barrón claims that his is a Europeanist, constitutionalist, very Spanish and humanist party.  Potential voters will have to be convinced.